KRDU / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Raleigh, NCHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST34%Oct 19 · 14:27 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

71%

48%

26%

14%

11%

Consensus

34%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 41.2¢Risks 41.25u

HRESNO 58.8¢Risks 58.75u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +58.75u · HRES −58.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T14:27:58+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-17T04:41:17+00:00	75.7%	29.0%	86.4%	40.2%	69.2%
2026-10-17T05:28:21+00:00	75.7%	29.0%	78.4%	40.2%	69.2%
2026-10-17T06:13:34+00:00	75.7%	29.0%	78.4%	40.2%	69.2%
2026-10-17T06:58:44+00:00	75.7%	29.0%	78.4%	40.2%	69.2%
2026-10-17T07:44:06+00:00	75.9%	29.0%	78.4%	31.9%	76.7%
2026-10-17T08:30:37+00:00	75.9%	29.0%	78.4%	31.9%	76.7%
2026-10-17T09:16:29+00:00	75.9%	29.0%	78.4%	31.9%	76.7%
2026-10-17T10:01:48+00:00	75.9%	29.0%	78.4%	31.9%	76.7%
2026-10-17T10:46:53+00:00	75.9%	29.0%	78.4%	31.9%	76.7%
2026-10-17T11:32:01+00:00	75.9%	33.7%	75.3%	31.9%	76.7%
2026-10-17T12:17:26+00:00	75.9%	33.7%	75.3%	31.9%	76.7%
2026-10-17T13:02:32+00:00	75.9%	33.7%	75.3%	31.9%	76.7%
2026-10-17T13:47:48+00:00	69.8%	33.7%	75.3%	32.2%	76.7%
2026-10-17T14:39:15+00:00	69.8%	33.8%	75.3%	31.9%	76.6%
2026-10-17T15:24:31+00:00	69.8%	36.6%	75.3%	31.9%	76.6%
2026-10-17T16:10:30+00:00	69.8%	36.6%	75.3%	31.9%	76.6%
2026-10-17T16:55:38+00:00	69.8%	36.6%	64.2%	31.9%	76.6%
2026-10-17T17:40:47+00:00	69.8%	36.6%	64.2%	31.9%	76.6%
2026-10-17T18:25:55+00:00	69.8%	36.6%	64.2%	31.9%	76.6%
2026-10-17T19:11:02+00:00	69.8%	36.6%	64.2%	31.9%	76.6%
2026-10-17T19:56:10+00:00	66.5%	36.6%	64.2%	19.4%	44.4%
2026-10-17T20:41:26+00:00	66.5%	36.6%	64.2%	19.4%	44.4%
2026-10-17T21:26:36+00:00	66.5%	36.6%	64.2%	19.4%	44.4%
2026-10-17T22:11:52+00:00	66.5%	36.6%	64.2%	19.4%	44.4%
2026-10-17T22:57:00+00:00	66.5%	36.6%	52.6%	19.4%	44.4%
2026-10-17T23:42:10+00:00	66.5%	36.6%	52.6%	19.4%	44.4%
2026-10-18T00:27:22+00:00	66.5%	36.6%	52.6%	19.4%	44.4%
2026-10-18T01:12:51+00:00	66.5%	36.6%	52.6%	19.4%	44.4%
2026-10-18T01:58:11+00:00	65.8%	36.6%	52.6%	19.4%	44.4%
2026-10-18T02:43:19+00:00	65.8%	36.6%	52.6%	19.4%	44.4%
2026-10-18T03:28:27+00:00	65.8%	36.6%	52.6%	19.4%	44.4%
2026-10-18T04:13:49+00:00	65.8%	36.6%	52.6%	19.4%	44.4%
2026-10-18T05:00:11+00:00	65.8%	36.6%	68.1%	19.4%	44.4%
2026-10-18T05:45:18+00:00	65.8%	36.6%	68.1%	19.4%	44.4%
2026-10-18T06:30:25+00:00	65.8%	36.6%	68.1%	19.4%	44.4%
2026-10-18T07:15:32+00:00	65.8%	36.6%	68.1%	19.4%	44.4%
2026-10-18T08:00:58+00:00	66.4%	36.6%	68.1%	14.6%	40.3%
2026-10-18T08:47:09+00:00	66.4%	36.6%	68.1%	14.6%	40.3%
2026-10-18T09:32:16+00:00	66.4%	36.6%	68.1%	14.6%	40.3%
2026-10-18T10:17:25+00:00	66.4%	36.6%	68.1%	14.6%	40.3%
2026-10-18T11:02:36+00:00	66.4%	26.0%	66.0%	14.6%	40.3%
2026-10-18T11:48:11+00:00	66.4%	26.0%	66.0%	14.6%	40.3%
2026-10-18T12:33:25+00:00	66.4%	26.0%	66.0%	14.6%	40.3%
2026-10-18T13:18:59+00:00	66.4%	26.0%	66.0%	14.6%	40.3%
2026-10-18T14:04:08+00:00	60.4%	26.0%	66.0%	14.6%	40.3%
2026-10-18T14:55:36+00:00	60.4%	26.0%	66.0%	14.6%	40.3%
2026-10-18T15:41:27+00:00	60.4%	22.4%	66.0%	14.6%	40.3%
2026-10-18T16:26:50+00:00	60.4%	22.4%	66.0%	14.6%	40.3%
2026-10-18T17:12:04+00:00	60.4%	22.4%	60.6%	14.6%	40.3%
2026-10-18T17:57:19+00:00	60.4%	22.4%	60.6%	14.6%	40.3%
2026-10-18T18:42:45+00:00	60.4%	22.4%	60.6%	14.6%	40.3%
2026-10-18T19:27:54+00:00	60.4%	22.4%	60.6%	15.8%	30.6%
2026-10-18T20:13:05+00:00	60.4%	22.4%	60.6%	15.8%	30.6%
2026-10-18T20:58:14+00:00	60.4%	22.4%	60.6%	15.8%	30.6%
2026-10-18T21:43:23+00:00	60.4%	22.4%	60.6%	15.8%	30.6%
2026-10-18T22:28:31+00:00	60.4%	22.4%	60.6%	15.8%	30.6%
2026-10-18T23:13:39+00:00	60.4%	22.4%	64.2%	15.8%	30.6%
2026-10-18T23:58:49+00:00	60.4%	22.4%	64.2%	15.8%	30.6%
2026-10-19T00:44:04+00:00	60.4%	22.4%	64.2%	15.8%	30.6%
2026-10-19T01:29:30+00:00	60.4%	22.4%	64.2%	15.8%	30.6%
2026-10-19T02:14:44+00:00	60.4%	22.4%	64.2%	15.8%	30.6%
2026-10-19T02:59:53+00:00	60.4%	22.4%	64.2%	15.8%	30.6%
2026-10-19T03:45:03+00:00	60.4%	22.4%	64.2%	15.8%	30.6%
2026-10-19T04:30:31+00:00	60.4%	22.4%	64.2%	15.8%	30.6%
2026-10-19T05:16:57+00:00	60.4%	22.4%	66.0%	15.8%	30.6%
2026-10-19T06:02:11+00:00	60.4%	22.4%	66.0%	15.8%	30.6%
2026-10-19T06:47:19+00:00	60.4%	22.4%	66.0%	15.8%	30.6%
2026-10-19T07:32:48+00:00	67.6%	22.4%	66.0%	11.1%	14.3%
2026-10-19T08:19:20+00:00	67.6%	22.4%	66.0%	11.1%	14.3%
2026-10-19T09:04:27+00:00	67.6%	22.4%	66.0%	11.1%	14.3%
2026-10-19T09:49:32+00:00	67.6%	22.4%	66.0%	11.1%	14.3%
2026-10-19T10:35:00+00:00	67.6%	22.4%	66.0%	11.1%	14.3%
2026-10-19T11:20:41+00:00	67.6%	25.6%	71.3%	11.1%	14.3%
2026-10-19T12:06:29+00:00	67.6%	25.6%	71.3%	11.1%	14.3%
2026-10-19T12:51:49+00:00	67.6%	25.6%	71.3%	11.1%	14.3%
2026-10-19T13:36:56+00:00	48.3%	25.6%	71.3%	11.1%	14.3%
2026-10-19T14:27:58+00:00	48.3%	25.6%	71.4%	11.1%	14.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	71%	72.6°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	71.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
AIFS Single	48%	70.3°F	4.6°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
National Blend	33%	69.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	26%	68.6°F	2.9°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
ICON	14%	65.3°F	4.9°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	11%	64.4°F	5.0°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KRDU

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KRDU-20261023-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 17 · 04:41 UTC

Original listing: Raleigh high ≥ 71°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗