KRDU / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Raleigh, NCHigh ≥ 72°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST56%Oct 17 · 03:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

82%

70%

66%

34%

23%

Consensus

56%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 52.4¢Risks 52.40u

EPSNO 47.6¢Risks 47.60u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +47.60u · EPS −47.60u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

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Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	18.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	4.2%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	48.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	64.5%	—	—	—	—	34.9%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	50.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	55.8%	—	—	—	—	48.4%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	42.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	—	—	—	33.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	70.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	63.6%	—	—	—	—	56.9%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	45.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	65.5%	—	—	—	—	55.8%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	36.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	76.0%	—	—	—	—	59.5%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	83.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	38.0%	—	—	—	—	68.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	83.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	82.9%	—	—	—	—	61.6%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	88.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	81.9%	—	—	—	—	61.9%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	80.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	89.2%	—	—	—	—	61.2%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	87.6%	—	38.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	85.2%	—	36.8%	—	—	52.3%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	88.1%	—	84.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	51.2%	—	—	—	—	37.5%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	73.7%	—	65.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	37.0%	—	0.6%	—	—	43.7%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	77.9%	—	61.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	8.3%	—	0.5%	—	—	38.4%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	16.7%	—	8.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	17.6%	5.4%	7.2%	—	—	16.7%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	8.6%	—	29.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	22.4%	45.8%	50.0%	5.4%	—	28.6%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	42.9%	—	38.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	41.3%	53.6%	40.6%	32.3%	—	18.4%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	40.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	31.6%	13.8%	44.7%	12.5%	—	13.4%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	33.4%	—	—	10.2%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	30.1%	14.9%	41.3%	7.5%	—	11.5%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	24.3%	0.1%	32.6%	—	—	7.3%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	23.8%	7.7%	40.9%	9.7%	—	7.4%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	23.3%	4.1%	31.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	29.1%	4.1%	30.7%	5.4%	—	4.1%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	13.0%	1.9%	27.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	11.9%	1.2%	26.6%	3.0%	—	1.0%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	17.7%	3.6%	29.2%	—	—	1.8%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	22.5%	2.3%	24.0%	5.6%	17.7%	1.6%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	24.9%	—	—	1.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	82%	76.1°F	5.1°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	70%	74.5°F	5.8°F	2026-10-16 18:00	Pending
ICON	66%	75.5°F	9.9°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
National Blend	54%	72.0°F	5.5°F	2026-10-16 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	34%	68.9°F	6.5°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	23%	67.4°F	5.6°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 72°F · KRDU

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KRDU-20261023-TMAX-GE72
Opened Oct 16 · 13:28 UTC

Original listing: Raleigh high ≥ 72°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗