KRDU / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Raleigh, NCHigh ≥ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST60%Oct 20 · 15:31 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

79%

75%

48%

42%

32%

Consensus

60%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 55.6¢Risks 55.60u

HRESNO 44.4¢Risks 44.40u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +44.40u · HRES −44.40u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	4.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	30.1%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	92.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	52.7%	—	—	—	—	64.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	92.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	96.2%	—	—	—	—	78.4%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	86.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	98.1%	—	—	—	—	78.4%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	92.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	95.0%	—	—	—	—	80.3%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	61.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	99.3%	—	—	—	—	91.1%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	98.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	92.1%	—	—	—	—	84.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	99.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	94.1%	—	—	—	—	87.7%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	96.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	98.6%	—	—	—	—	87.2%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	92.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	74.2%	—	—	—	—	75.9%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	91.5%	—	41.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	85.7%	—	—	—	—	64.4%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	92.6%	—	27.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	83.8%	—	—	—	—	76.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	96.2%	—	32.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	31.9%	—	—	—	—	68.1%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	30.5%	—	74.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	73.0%	—	—	—	—	51.9%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	36.8%	—	53.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	48.7%	—	75.4%	—	—	59.7%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	10.9%	—	67.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	10.8%	15.5%	61.3%	—	—	42.6%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	29.6%	—	57.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	19.4%	12.2%	74.8%	25.2%	—	35.6%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	36.0%	—	69.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	31.7%	19.4%	72.8%	42.0%	—	31.7%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	36.1%	—	38.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	28.3%	33.0%	74.9%	76.1%	—	35.8%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	53.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	37.5%	21.8%	56.4%	39.0%	—	28.1%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	32.6%	0.1%	53.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	35.3%	19.5%	55.0%	42.5%	—	16.2%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	36.6%	28.8%	58.5%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	45.6%	33.8%	62.9%	64.6%	77.9%	27.7%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	41.1%	—	66.6%	—	—	22.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	79%	68.5°F	3.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	75%	68.6°F	4.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	67%	67.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	66.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-20 14:00	Pending
ICON	48%	65.3°F	4.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	42%	64.8°F	3.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	32%	63.2°F	5.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KRDU

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KRDU-20261024-TMAX-GE66
Opened Oct 20 · 04:04 UTC

Original listing: Raleigh high ≥ 66°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗