KRDU / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Raleigh, NCHigh ≥ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST60%Oct 20 · 15:31 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

79%

75%

48%

42%

32%

Consensus

60%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 55.6¢Risks 55.60u

HRESNO 44.4¢Risks 44.40u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +44.40u · HRES −44.40u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T15:31:40+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-20T04:04:12+00:00	65.7%	44.5%	77.5%	18.4%	40.9%
2026-10-20T04:51:19+00:00	65.7%	44.5%	77.5%	18.4%	40.9%
2026-10-20T05:36:27+00:00	65.7%	44.5%	77.5%	18.4%	40.9%
2026-10-20T06:21:39+00:00	65.7%	44.5%	77.5%	18.4%	40.9%
2026-10-20T07:06:47+00:00	65.7%	44.5%	77.5%	18.4%	40.9%
2026-10-20T07:51:52+00:00	75.1%	44.5%	77.5%	18.4%	48.4%
2026-10-20T08:37:06+00:00	75.1%	44.5%	77.5%	18.4%	48.4%
2026-10-20T09:22:22+00:00	75.1%	44.5%	77.5%	18.4%	48.4%
2026-10-20T10:07:45+00:00	75.1%	44.5%	77.5%	18.4%	48.4%
2026-10-20T10:53:12+00:00	75.1%	41.4%	79.0%	32.3%	48.4%
2026-10-20T11:39:43+00:00	75.1%	41.4%	79.0%	32.3%	48.4%
2026-10-20T12:24:51+00:00	75.1%	41.4%	79.0%	32.3%	48.4%
2026-10-20T13:10:00+00:00	75.1%	41.4%	79.0%	32.3%	48.4%
2026-10-20T13:55:10+00:00	75.1%	41.3%	79.0%	32.2%	48.4%
2026-10-20T14:46:21+00:00	75.1%	41.3%	79.0%	32.2%	48.4%
2026-10-20T15:31:40+00:00	75.1%	42.5%	79.0%	32.2%	48.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	79%	68.5°F	3.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	75%	68.6°F	4.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	67%	67.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	66.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-20 14:00	Pending
ICON	48%	65.3°F	4.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	42%	64.8°F	3.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	32%	63.2°F	5.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KRDU

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KRDU-20261024-TMAX-GE66
Opened Oct 20 · 04:04 UTC

Original listing: Raleigh high ≥ 66°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗