KRDU / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Raleigh, NCHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST20%Oct 18 · 14:04 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

28%

23%

20%

16%

Consensus

20%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 16.8¢Risks 16.80u

HRESNO 83.2¢Risks 83.20u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +83.20u · HRES −83.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	11.8%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	78.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	27.4%	—	—	—	—	38.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	78.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	86.6%	—	—	—	—	54.8%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	67.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	92.1%	—	—	—	—	54.8%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	77.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	83.5%	—	—	—	—	57.4%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	96.2%	—	—	—	—	75.2%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	94.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	77.2%	—	—	—	—	63.6%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	95.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	81.4%	—	—	—	—	68.9%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	86.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	93.8%	—	—	—	—	68.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	76.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	48.4%	—	—	—	—	50.5%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	74.9%	—	17.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	63.9%	—	—	—	—	36.6%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	76.5%	—	9.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	59.9%	—	—	—	—	48.8%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	84.9%	—	11.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	10.9%	—	—	—	—	38.6%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	10.0%	—	45.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	—	—	—	23.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	24.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	19.8%	—	44.8%	—	—	28.4%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	2.0%	—	35.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	1.8%	3.1%	28.8%	—	—	15.1%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	8.1%	—	25.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	4.0%	2.1%	41.6%	6.0%	—	10.5%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	10.4%	—	35.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	8.2%	3.8%	37.8%	13.2%	—	8.2%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	10.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	6.3%	8.1%	38.7%	40.2%	—	9.3%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	18.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	9.3%	3.8%	20.1%	10.0%	—	5.7%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	7.0%	0.0%	17.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	7.7%	2.8%	17.8%	10.8%	—	2.1%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	7.8%	5.1%	19.6%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	11.3%	6.5%	22.1%	23.4%	37.1%	4.5%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	8.8%	—	24.2%	—	—	2.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	53%	71.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-18 03:00	Pending
National Blend	29%	68.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	28%	67.3°F	5.4°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	23%	67.0°F	4.7°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
ICON	20%	64.5°F	7.2°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	16%	66.7°F	3.7°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	6%	60.2°F	6.6°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KRDU

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KRDU-20261024-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 18 · 04:13 UTC

Original listing: Raleigh high ≥ 71°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗