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KRDU / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Raleigh, NCHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST20%Oct 18 · 14:04 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
AIFS
28%
WN2
23%
ICON
20%
EPS
16%
HRES
6%
Consensus
20%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
AIFSYES 16.8¢Risks 16.80u
VS
HRESNO 83.2¢Risks 83.20u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +83.20u · HRES −83.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 28.9% · 2026-10-18T04:13:49+00:00AIFS Single: 28.9% · 2026-10-18T05:00:11+00:00AIFS Single: 28.9% · 2026-10-18T05:45:18+00:00AIFS Single: 28.9% · 2026-10-18T06:30:25+00:00AIFS Single: 28.9% · 2026-10-18T07:15:32+00:00AIFS Single: 24.1% · 2026-10-18T08:00:58+00:00AIFS Single: 24.1% · 2026-10-18T08:47:09+00:00AIFS Single: 24.1% · 2026-10-18T09:32:16+00:00AIFS Single: 24.1% · 2026-10-18T10:17:25+00:00AIFS Single: 24.1% · 2026-10-18T11:02:36+00:00AIFS Single: 24.1% · 2026-10-18T11:48:11+00:00AIFS Single: 24.1% · 2026-10-18T12:33:25+00:00AIFS Single: 24.1% · 2026-10-18T13:18:59+00:00AIFS Single: 27.7% · 2026-10-18T14:04:08+00:00IFS Ensemble: 37.3% · 2026-10-18T04:13:49+00:00IFS Ensemble: 37.3% · 2026-10-18T05:00:11+00:00IFS Ensemble: 37.3% · 2026-10-18T05:45:18+00:00IFS Ensemble: 37.3% · 2026-10-18T06:30:25+00:00IFS Ensemble: 37.3% · 2026-10-18T07:15:32+00:00IFS Ensemble: 37.3% · 2026-10-18T08:00:58+00:00IFS Ensemble: 37.3% · 2026-10-18T08:47:09+00:00IFS Ensemble: 37.3% · 2026-10-18T09:32:16+00:00IFS Ensemble: 37.3% · 2026-10-18T10:17:25+00:00IFS Ensemble: 15.2% · 2026-10-18T11:02:36+00:00IFS Ensemble: 15.2% · 2026-10-18T11:48:11+00:00IFS Ensemble: 15.2% · 2026-10-18T12:33:25+00:00IFS Ensemble: 15.2% · 2026-10-18T13:18:59+00:00IFS Ensemble: 15.5% · 2026-10-18T14:04:08+00:00WeatherNext 2: 15.9% · 2026-10-18T04:13:49+00:00WeatherNext 2: 23.5% · 2026-10-18T05:00:11+00:00WeatherNext 2: 23.5% · 2026-10-18T05:45:18+00:00WeatherNext 2: 23.5% · 2026-10-18T06:30:25+00:00WeatherNext 2: 23.5% · 2026-10-18T07:15:32+00:00WeatherNext 2: 23.5% · 2026-10-18T08:00:58+00:00WeatherNext 2: 23.5% · 2026-10-18T08:47:09+00:00WeatherNext 2: 23.5% · 2026-10-18T09:32:16+00:00WeatherNext 2: 23.5% · 2026-10-18T10:17:25+00:00WeatherNext 2: 22.7% · 2026-10-18T11:02:36+00:00WeatherNext 2: 22.7% · 2026-10-18T11:48:11+00:00WeatherNext 2: 22.7% · 2026-10-18T12:33:25+00:00WeatherNext 2: 22.7% · 2026-10-18T13:18:59+00:00WeatherNext 2: 22.7% · 2026-10-18T14:04:08+00:00IFS HRES: 34.3% · 2026-10-18T04:13:49+00:00IFS HRES: 34.3% · 2026-10-18T05:00:11+00:00IFS HRES: 34.3% · 2026-10-18T05:45:18+00:00IFS HRES: 34.3% · 2026-10-18T06:30:25+00:00IFS HRES: 34.3% · 2026-10-18T07:15:32+00:00IFS HRES: 5.9% · 2026-10-18T08:00:58+00:00IFS HRES: 5.9% · 2026-10-18T08:47:09+00:00IFS HRES: 5.9% · 2026-10-18T09:32:16+00:00IFS HRES: 5.9% · 2026-10-18T10:17:25+00:00IFS HRES: 5.9% · 2026-10-18T11:02:36+00:00IFS HRES: 5.9% · 2026-10-18T11:48:11+00:00IFS HRES: 5.9% · 2026-10-18T12:33:25+00:00IFS HRES: 5.9% · 2026-10-18T13:18:59+00:00IFS HRES: 5.9% · 2026-10-18T14:04:08+00:00ICON: 24.4% · 2026-10-18T04:13:49+00:00ICON: 24.4% · 2026-10-18T05:00:11+00:00ICON: 24.4% · 2026-10-18T05:45:18+00:00ICON: 24.4% · 2026-10-18T06:30:25+00:00ICON: 24.4% · 2026-10-18T07:15:32+00:00ICON: 20.1% · 2026-10-18T08:00:58+00:00ICON: 20.1% · 2026-10-18T08:47:09+00:00ICON: 20.1% · 2026-10-18T09:32:16+00:00ICON: 20.1% · 2026-10-18T10:17:25+00:00ICON: 20.1% · 2026-10-18T11:02:36+00:00ICON: 20.1% · 2026-10-18T11:48:11+00:00ICON: 20.1% · 2026-10-18T12:33:25+00:00ICON: 20.1% · 2026-10-18T13:18:59+00:00ICON: 20.1% · 2026-10-18T14:04:08+00:0010-18 04:1310-18 09:3210-18 14:04
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-18T14:04:08+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-18T04:13:49+00:0028.9%37.3%15.9%34.3%24.4%
2026-10-18T05:00:11+00:0028.9%37.3%23.5%34.3%24.4%
2026-10-18T05:45:18+00:0028.9%37.3%23.5%34.3%24.4%
2026-10-18T06:30:25+00:0028.9%37.3%23.5%34.3%24.4%
2026-10-18T07:15:32+00:0028.9%37.3%23.5%34.3%24.4%
2026-10-18T08:00:58+00:0024.1%37.3%23.5%5.9%20.1%
2026-10-18T08:47:09+00:0024.1%37.3%23.5%5.9%20.1%
2026-10-18T09:32:16+00:0024.1%37.3%23.5%5.9%20.1%
2026-10-18T10:17:25+00:0024.1%37.3%23.5%5.9%20.1%
2026-10-18T11:02:36+00:0024.1%15.2%22.7%5.9%20.1%
2026-10-18T11:48:11+00:0024.1%15.2%22.7%5.9%20.1%
2026-10-18T12:33:25+00:0024.1%15.2%22.7%5.9%20.1%
2026-10-18T13:18:59+00:0024.1%15.2%22.7%5.9%20.1%
2026-10-18T14:04:08+00:0027.7%15.5%22.7%5.9%20.1%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
NWS forecast53%71.0°F5.9°F2026-10-18 03:00Pending
National Blend29%68.0°F4.5°F2026-10-18 06:00Pending
AIFS Single28%67.3°F5.4°F2026-10-18 06:00Pending
WeatherNext 223%67.0°F4.7°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending
ICON20%64.5°F7.2°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble16%66.7°F3.7°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending
IFS HRES6%60.2°F6.6°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KRDU

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KRDU-20261024-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 18 · 04:13 UTC

Original listing: Raleigh high ≥ 71°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗