KRDU / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Raleigh, NCHigh ≤ 59°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST3%Oct 20 · 18:33 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

23%

12%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 11.9¢Risks 11.85u

WN2NO 88.1¢Risks 88.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +88.15u · WN2 −88.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	82.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	94.2%	—	—	—	—	39.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	—	—	—	12.0%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	5.6%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	5.6%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	4.9%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	1.6%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	—	—	—	3.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	2.5%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	2.6%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	7.0%	—	—	—	—	6.3%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	26.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	—	—	—	11.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	39.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	3.1%	—	—	—	—	5.6%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	32.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	—	—	8.3%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	33.8%	—	5.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	5.9%	—	—	—	—	16.1%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	26.6%	—	14.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	17.2%	—	4.8%	—	—	11.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	59.2%	—	7.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	58.7%	50.0%	9.6%	—	—	20.3%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	30.8%	—	11.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	42.3%	54.2%	4.2%	34.9%	—	24.6%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	5.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	26.6%	40.6%	4.4%	18.4%	—	26.6%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	22.1%	—	20.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	28.3%	23.9%	3.5%	3.2%	—	21.6%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	25.3%	—	10.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	18.9%	33.7%	8.7%	17.9%	—	26.8%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	21.8%	97.4%	9.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	18.9%	34.5%	8.3%	14.3%	—	39.3%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	17.3%	23.3%	6.7%	—	—	98.7%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	11.3%	18.4%	5.0%	4.5%	1.8%	23.4%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	13.0%	—	3.8%	—	—	27.9%
2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00	—	—	3.2%	—	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	23%	63.2°F	5.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	12%	65.3°F	4.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	8%	64.8°F	3.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	7%	66.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-20 14:00	Pending
AIFS Single	3%	68.1°F	4.6°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
National Blend	1%	67.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	<1%	68.4°F	3.7°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≤ 59°F · KRDU

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KRDU-20261024-TMAX-LE59
Opened Oct 20 · 10:53 UTC

Original listing: Raleigh stays cold-for-here: high ≤ 59°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗