KRDU / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Raleigh, NCHigh ≥ 70°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST45%Oct 19 · 03:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

55%

55%

51%

42%

23%

Consensus

45%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 39.0¢Risks 39.00u

EPSNO 61.0¢Risks 61.00u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +61.00u · EPS −61.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	60.5%	—	—	—	—	13.4%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	85.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	81.8%	—	—	—	—	52.7%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	65.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	93.2%	—	—	—	—	54.2%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	87.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	95.9%	—	—	—	—	70.8%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	44.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	89.0%	—	—	—	—	65.0%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	91.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	93.2%	—	—	—	—	75.2%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	94.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	96.9%	—	—	—	—	68.4%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	90.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	—	—	—	57.4%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	88.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	—	—	—	44.1%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	25.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	58.2%	—	—	—	—	51.1%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	76.7%	—	0.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	18.1%	—	—	—	—	47.7%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	36.2%	—	—	—	—	29.8%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	6.2%	—	6.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	10.6%	—	25.7%	—	—	38.6%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	6.1%	—	1.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	4.3%	—	—	—	—	26.4%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	14.9%	—	54.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	51.9%	—	—	22.1%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	27.5%	—	42.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	18.9%	0.0%	54.7%	—	—	20.8%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	40.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	31.1%	27.5%	50.7%	15.3%	—	27.5%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	26.5%	—	37.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	29.7%	13.6%	42.0%	12.8%	—	21.5%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	34.7%	—	44.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	38.0%	15.5%	33.0%	30.9%	—	17.9%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	35.5%	—	36.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	35.9%	23.6%	47.6%	46.8%	67.0%	27.4%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	31.2%	—	50.0%	—	—	27.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	55%	70.7°F	10.0°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	55%	70.1°F	5.1°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
National Blend	55%	70.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	51%	69.6°F	5.8°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	42%	68.2°F	6.5°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	23%	66.1°F	4.6°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 70°F · KRDU

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KRDU-20261025-TMAX-GE70
Opened Oct 18 · 08:00 UTC

Original listing: Raleigh high ≥ 70°F · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗