KRDU / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Raleigh, NCHigh ≥ 70°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST45%Oct 19 · 03:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

55%

55%

51%

42%

23%

Consensus

45%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 39.0¢Risks 39.00u

EPSNO 61.0¢Risks 61.00u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +61.00u · EPS −61.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T03:45:03+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-18T08:00:58+00:00	39.7%	37.8%	46.4%	12.2%	3.9%
2026-10-18T08:47:09+00:00	39.7%	37.8%	46.4%	12.2%	3.9%
2026-10-18T09:32:16+00:00	39.7%	37.8%	46.4%	12.2%	3.9%
2026-10-18T10:17:25+00:00	39.7%	37.8%	46.4%	12.2%	3.9%
2026-10-18T11:02:36+00:00	39.7%	26.4%	43.0%	12.2%	3.9%
2026-10-18T11:48:11+00:00	39.7%	26.4%	43.0%	12.2%	3.9%
2026-10-18T12:33:25+00:00	39.7%	26.4%	43.0%	12.2%	3.9%
2026-10-18T13:18:59+00:00	39.7%	26.4%	43.0%	12.2%	3.9%
2026-10-18T14:04:08+00:00	57.6%	26.4%	43.0%	12.2%	3.9%
2026-10-18T14:55:38+00:00	57.6%	26.4%	43.0%	12.2%	3.9%
2026-10-18T15:41:27+00:00	57.6%	23.2%	43.0%	12.2%	3.9%
2026-10-18T16:26:50+00:00	57.6%	23.2%	43.0%	12.2%	3.9%
2026-10-18T17:12:04+00:00	57.6%	23.2%	47.7%	12.2%	3.9%
2026-10-18T17:57:19+00:00	57.6%	23.2%	47.7%	12.2%	3.9%
2026-10-18T18:42:46+00:00	57.6%	23.2%	47.7%	12.2%	3.9%
2026-10-18T19:27:54+00:00	54.8%	23.2%	47.7%	42.0%	54.8%
2026-10-18T20:13:05+00:00	54.8%	23.2%	47.7%	42.0%	54.8%
2026-10-18T20:58:14+00:00	54.8%	23.2%	47.7%	42.0%	54.8%
2026-10-18T21:43:23+00:00	54.8%	23.2%	47.7%	42.0%	54.8%
2026-10-18T22:28:31+00:00	54.8%	23.2%	47.7%	42.0%	54.8%
2026-10-18T23:13:39+00:00	54.8%	23.2%	54.7%	42.0%	54.8%
2026-10-18T23:58:49+00:00	54.8%	23.2%	54.7%	42.0%	54.8%
2026-10-19T00:44:04+00:00	54.8%	23.2%	54.7%	42.0%	54.8%
2026-10-19T01:29:30+00:00	50.7%	23.2%	54.7%	42.0%	54.8%
2026-10-19T02:14:44+00:00	50.7%	23.2%	54.7%	42.0%	54.8%
2026-10-19T02:59:53+00:00	50.7%	23.2%	54.7%	42.0%	54.8%
2026-10-19T03:45:03+00:00	50.7%	23.2%	54.7%	42.0%	54.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	55%	70.7°F	10.0°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	55%	70.1°F	5.1°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
National Blend	55%	70.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	51%	69.6°F	5.8°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	42%	68.2°F	6.5°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	23%	66.1°F	4.6°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 70°F · KRDU

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KRDU-20261025-TMAX-GE70
Opened Oct 18 · 08:00 UTC

Original listing: Raleigh high ≥ 70°F · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗