KRDU / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Raleigh, NCHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST47%Oct 20 · 15:31 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

65%

56%

38%

26%

25%

Consensus

47%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 45.1¢Risks 45.10u

HRESNO 54.9¢Risks 54.90u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +54.90u · HRES −54.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	55.3%	—	—	—	—	10.8%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	81.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	78.0%	—	—	—	—	47.3%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	60.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	91.3%	—	—	—	—	48.9%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	84.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	94.5%	—	—	—	—	66.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	39.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	86.3%	—	—	—	—	60.0%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	88.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	91.3%	—	—	—	—	70.8%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	93.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	95.9%	—	—	—	—	63.6%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	87.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	38.0%	—	—	—	—	52.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	85.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	20.7%	—	—	—	—	38.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	21.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	52.8%	—	—	—	—	45.6%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	72.2%	—	0.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	14.6%	—	—	—	—	42.1%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	9.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	30.9%	—	—	—	—	24.9%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	4.5%	—	4.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	8.1%	—	21.0%	—	—	33.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	4.4%	—	0.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	3.0%	—	—	—	—	21.6%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	11.5%	—	48.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	16.8%	—	45.5%	—	—	17.6%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	22.2%	—	35.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	14.7%	0.0%	48.0%	—	—	16.3%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	28.4%	—	33.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	25.2%	21.9%	43.7%	11.5%	—	21.9%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	20.9%	—	30.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	23.7%	10.0%	35.0%	9.3%	—	16.5%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	28.1%	—	37.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	30.9%	11.4%	26.4%	24.5%	—	13.4%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	28.5%	—	29.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	28.8%	17.9%	39.7%	39.0%	59.5%	21.2%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	24.3%	—	41.9%	—	—	21.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	65%	72.1°F	4.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	57%	71.0°F	2.8°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	56%	71.3°F	4.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	71.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-20 14:00	Pending
ICON	38%	68.6°F	6.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	26%	68.3°F	3.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	25%	66.6°F	5.8°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KRDU

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KRDU-20261025-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 19 · 04:30 UTC

Original listing: Raleigh high ≥ 71°F · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗