KRDU / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Raleigh, NCHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST47%Oct 20 · 15:31 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

65%

56%

38%

26%

25%

Consensus

47%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 45.1¢Risks 45.10u

HRESNO 54.9¢Risks 54.90u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +54.90u · HRES −54.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T15:31:40+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-19T04:30:31+00:00	43.8%	17.1%	46.9%	36.1%	50.8%
2026-10-19T05:16:57+00:00	43.8%	17.1%	43.8%	36.1%	50.8%
2026-10-19T06:02:11+00:00	43.8%	17.1%	43.8%	36.1%	50.8%
2026-10-19T06:47:19+00:00	43.8%	17.1%	43.8%	36.1%	50.8%
2026-10-19T07:32:48+00:00	48.5%	17.1%	43.8%	17.4%	32.2%
2026-10-19T08:19:20+00:00	48.5%	17.1%	43.8%	17.4%	32.2%
2026-10-19T09:04:27+00:00	48.5%	17.1%	43.8%	17.4%	32.2%
2026-10-19T09:49:32+00:00	48.5%	17.1%	43.8%	17.4%	32.2%
2026-10-19T10:35:00+00:00	48.5%	17.1%	43.8%	17.4%	32.2%
2026-10-19T11:20:41+00:00	48.5%	13.6%	53.4%	17.4%	32.2%
2026-10-19T12:06:29+00:00	48.5%	13.6%	53.4%	17.4%	32.2%
2026-10-19T12:51:49+00:00	48.5%	13.6%	53.4%	17.4%	32.2%
2026-10-19T13:36:56+00:00	52.9%	13.6%	53.4%	17.4%	32.2%
2026-10-19T14:27:58+00:00	53.0%	13.6%	53.4%	17.3%	31.7%
2026-10-19T15:13:21+00:00	53.0%	13.0%	53.4%	17.3%	31.7%
2026-10-19T15:59:06+00:00	53.0%	13.0%	53.4%	17.3%	31.7%
2026-10-19T16:44:14+00:00	53.0%	13.0%	53.4%	17.3%	31.7%
2026-10-19T17:29:26+00:00	53.0%	13.0%	56.8%	17.3%	31.7%
2026-10-19T18:14:37+00:00	53.0%	13.0%	56.8%	17.3%	31.7%
2026-10-19T18:59:52+00:00	53.0%	13.0%	56.8%	17.3%	31.7%
2026-10-19T19:45:26+00:00	56.6%	13.0%	56.8%	25.7%	35.2%
2026-10-19T20:30:37+00:00	56.6%	13.0%	56.8%	25.7%	35.2%
2026-10-19T21:15:50+00:00	56.6%	13.0%	56.8%	25.7%	35.2%
2026-10-19T22:00:59+00:00	56.6%	13.0%	56.8%	25.7%	35.2%
2026-10-19T22:46:10+00:00	56.6%	13.0%	56.8%	25.7%	35.2%
2026-10-19T23:31:26+00:00	56.6%	13.0%	58.5%	25.7%	35.2%
2026-10-20T00:16:42+00:00	56.6%	13.0%	58.5%	25.7%	35.2%
2026-10-20T01:02:37+00:00	56.6%	13.0%	58.5%	25.7%	35.2%
2026-10-20T01:47:43+00:00	54.4%	13.0%	58.5%	25.7%	35.2%
2026-10-20T02:32:54+00:00	54.4%	13.0%	58.5%	25.7%	35.2%
2026-10-20T03:18:02+00:00	54.4%	13.0%	58.5%	25.7%	35.2%
2026-10-20T04:04:13+00:00	54.4%	13.0%	58.5%	25.7%	35.2%
2026-10-20T04:51:19+00:00	54.4%	13.0%	58.5%	25.7%	35.2%
2026-10-20T05:36:27+00:00	54.4%	13.0%	62.6%	25.7%	35.2%
2026-10-20T06:21:39+00:00	54.4%	13.0%	62.6%	25.7%	35.2%
2026-10-20T07:06:47+00:00	54.4%	13.0%	62.6%	25.7%	35.2%
2026-10-20T07:51:52+00:00	56.4%	13.0%	62.6%	25.7%	37.8%
2026-10-20T08:37:06+00:00	56.4%	13.0%	62.6%	25.7%	37.8%
2026-10-20T09:22:22+00:00	56.4%	13.0%	62.6%	25.7%	37.8%
2026-10-20T10:07:45+00:00	56.4%	13.0%	62.6%	25.7%	37.8%
2026-10-20T10:53:12+00:00	56.4%	25.6%	65.1%	25.0%	37.8%
2026-10-20T11:39:43+00:00	56.4%	25.6%	65.1%	25.0%	37.8%
2026-10-20T12:24:51+00:00	56.4%	25.6%	65.1%	25.0%	37.8%
2026-10-20T13:10:00+00:00	56.4%	25.6%	65.1%	25.0%	37.8%
2026-10-20T13:55:10+00:00	56.4%	25.6%	65.2%	25.0%	37.8%
2026-10-20T14:46:21+00:00	56.4%	25.6%	65.2%	25.0%	37.8%
2026-10-20T15:31:40+00:00	56.4%	26.5%	65.2%	25.0%	37.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	65%	72.1°F	4.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	57%	71.0°F	2.8°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	56%	71.3°F	4.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	71.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-20 14:00	Pending
ICON	38%	68.6°F	6.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	26%	68.3°F	3.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	25%	66.6°F	5.8°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KRDU

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KRDU-20261025-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 19 · 04:30 UTC

Original listing: Raleigh high ≥ 71°F · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗