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KRDU / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Raleigh, NCHigh ≥ 79°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 20 · 13:10 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
AIFS
7%
WN2
6%
ICON
5%
HRES
2%
EPS
<1%
Consensus
2%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
AIFSYES 3.7¢Risks 0.92u
VS
EPSNO 96.3¢Risks 24.07u

25 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +24.07u · EPS −24.07u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 17.5% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 43.6% · 2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 38.5% · 2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 21.2% · 2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 61.5% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 47.9% · 2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 70.3% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 8.9% · 2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 51.1% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 55.8% · 2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 61.5% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 66.5% · 2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 74.8% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 53.7% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 8.5% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 50.0% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.0% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.9% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 15.0% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 29.7% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.4% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.6% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.7% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.4% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.7% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.2% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.8% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.8% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.5% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.9% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.2% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.5% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.9% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.1% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.7% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.5% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.0% · 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 1.4% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.3% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.3% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.6% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.2% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.1% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 9.2% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 7.8% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 4.5% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 8.0% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 3.6% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 5.8% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.6% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 3.2% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 3.5% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.5% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.7% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 3.1% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 3.3% · 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.5% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.3% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 1.3% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 3.0% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00GEM: 8.7% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.1% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 12.8% · 2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 13.7% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 25.7% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 20.8% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 30.1% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 23.6% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 15.6% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 8.8% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 11.2% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 9.0% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 3.2% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 4.9% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.0% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.3% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.0% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.4% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.7% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.4% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.8% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.8% · 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:0010-10 06:0010-15 06:0010-20 06:00
AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS*
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:000.1%—————
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:0017.5%————1.1%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:0043.6%—————
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:0038.5%————12.8%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:0021.2%—————
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:0061.5%————13.7%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:0047.9%—————
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:0070.3%————25.7%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:008.9%—————
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:0051.1%————20.8%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:0055.8%—————
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:0061.5%————30.1%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:0066.5%—————
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:0074.8%————23.6%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:0053.7%—————
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:008.5%————15.6%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:0050.0%—————
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:003.0%————8.8%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:002.9%—————
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:0015.0%————11.2%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:0029.7%—0.0%———
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:001.4%————9.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:000.6%—————
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:004.7%————3.2%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:000.2%—0.2%———
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:000.4%—2.1%——4.9%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:000.2%—0.0%———
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:000.1%————2.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:000.7%—9.2%———
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:001.2%—7.8%——1.3%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:001.8%—4.5%———
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:000.8%0.0%8.0%——1.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:002.5%—3.6%———
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:001.9%1.4%5.8%0.5%—1.4%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:001.2%—2.6%———
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:001.5%0.3%3.2%0.3%—0.7%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:001.9%—3.5%———
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:002.1%0.3%1.5%1.3%—0.4%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:001.7%—1.7%———
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:001.5%0.6%3.1%3.0%8.7%0.8%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:001.0%—3.3%——0.8%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
NWS forecast8%71.0°F5.2°F2026-10-20 03:00Pending
AIFS Single7%71.3°F4.9°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 26%72.1°F4.1°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
ICON5%68.6°F6.1°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
National Blend4%71.0°F4.4°F2026-10-20 06:00Pending
IFS HRES2%66.6°F5.8°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble<1%68.2°F3.5°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 79°F · KRDU

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KRDU-20261025-TMAX-GE79
Opened Oct 18 · 19:27 UTC

Original listing: Raleigh runs hot-for-here: 79°F+ · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗