KRDU / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Raleigh, NCHigh ≥ 79°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 20 · 13:10 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 3.7¢Risks 0.92u

EPSNO 96.3¢Risks 24.07u

25 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +24.07u · EPS −24.07u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T13:10:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-18T19:27:54+00:00	7.4%	0.4%	3.4%	5.5%	21.8%
2026-10-18T20:13:05+00:00	7.4%	0.4%	3.4%	5.5%	21.8%
2026-10-18T20:58:14+00:00	7.4%	0.4%	3.4%	5.5%	21.8%
2026-10-18T21:43:23+00:00	7.4%	0.4%	3.4%	5.5%	21.8%
2026-10-18T22:28:31+00:00	7.4%	0.4%	3.4%	5.5%	21.8%
2026-10-18T23:13:39+00:00	7.4%	0.4%	5.0%	5.5%	21.8%
2026-10-18T23:58:49+00:00	7.4%	0.4%	5.0%	5.5%	21.8%
2026-10-19T00:44:04+00:00	7.4%	0.4%	5.0%	5.5%	21.8%
2026-10-19T01:29:30+00:00	6.1%	0.4%	5.0%	5.5%	21.8%
2026-10-19T02:14:44+00:00	6.1%	0.4%	5.0%	5.5%	21.8%
2026-10-19T02:59:53+00:00	6.1%	0.4%	5.0%	5.5%	21.8%
2026-10-19T03:45:03+00:00	6.1%	0.4%	5.0%	5.5%	21.8%
2026-10-19T04:30:31+00:00	6.1%	0.4%	5.0%	5.5%	21.8%
2026-10-19T05:16:57+00:00	6.1%	0.4%	4.3%	5.5%	21.8%
2026-10-19T06:02:11+00:00	6.1%	0.4%	4.3%	5.5%	21.8%
2026-10-19T06:47:19+00:00	6.1%	0.4%	4.3%	5.5%	21.8%
2026-10-19T07:32:48+00:00	6.5%	0.4%	4.3%	1.6%	5.7%
2026-10-19T08:19:20+00:00	6.5%	0.4%	4.3%	1.6%	5.7%
2026-10-19T09:04:27+00:00	6.5%	0.4%	4.3%	1.6%	5.7%
2026-10-19T09:49:32+00:00	6.5%	0.4%	4.3%	1.6%	5.7%
2026-10-19T10:35:00+00:00	6.5%	0.4%	4.3%	1.6%	5.7%
2026-10-20T05:36:27+00:00	8.5%	0.1%	8.2%	3.1%	6.7%
2026-10-20T06:21:39+00:00	8.5%	0.1%	8.2%	3.1%	6.7%
2026-10-20T07:06:47+00:00	8.5%	0.1%	8.2%	3.1%	6.7%
2026-10-20T07:51:52+00:00	7.2%	0.1%	8.2%	3.1%	5.2%
2026-10-20T08:37:06+00:00	7.2%	0.1%	8.2%	3.1%	5.2%
2026-10-20T09:22:22+00:00	7.2%	0.1%	8.2%	3.1%	5.2%
2026-10-20T10:07:45+00:00	7.2%	0.1%	8.2%	3.1%	5.2%
2026-10-20T10:53:12+00:00	7.2%	0.2%	6.0%	2.0%	5.2%
2026-10-20T11:39:43+00:00	7.2%	0.2%	6.0%	2.0%	5.2%
2026-10-20T12:24:51+00:00	7.2%	0.2%	6.0%	2.0%	5.2%
2026-10-20T13:10:00+00:00	7.2%	0.2%	6.0%	2.0%	5.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	8%	71.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
AIFS Single	7%	71.3°F	4.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	6%	72.1°F	4.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	5%	68.6°F	6.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	4%	71.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	2%	66.6°F	5.8°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	<1%	68.2°F	3.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 79°F · KRDU

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KRDU-20261025-TMAX-GE79
Opened Oct 18 · 19:27 UTC

Original listing: Raleigh runs hot-for-here: 79°F+ · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗