KRDU / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Raleigh, NCHigh ≥ 75°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST38%Oct 20 · 15:31 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

52%

51%

49%

31%

Consensus

38%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 30.4¢Risks 30.45u

EPSNO 69.5¢Risks 69.55u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +69.55u · EPS −69.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	—	—	—	2.8%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	53.2%	—	—	—	—	36.9%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	13.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	27.9%	—	—	—	—	36.4%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	63.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	90.0%	—	—	—	—	44.2%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	84.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	68.4%	—	—	—	—	36.9%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	17.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	16.9%	—	—	—	—	29.2%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	56.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	28.8%	—	—	—	—	28.3%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	22.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	—	—	—	30.6%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	62.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	21.1%	—	—	—	—	26.5%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	15.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	15.4%	—	—	—	—	20.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	9.4%	—	0.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	8.6%	—	—	—	—	22.5%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	11.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	7.1%	—	—	—	—	15.2%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	26.2%	—	49.4%	—	—	12.4%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	28.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	29.6%	—	35.3%	—	—	12.5%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	39.3%	—	29.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	42.2%	—	0.1%	—	—	19.8%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	44.0%	—	28.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	34.2%	0.0%	22.3%	—	—	14.3%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	35.2%	—	34.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	33.6%	18.0%	23.5%	1.0%	—	11.2%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	25.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	28.5%	26.0%	31.7%	9.3%	30.4%	16.1%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	22.1%	—	34.7%	—	—	0.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	56%	75.0°F	3.2°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	75.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-20 14:00	Pending
AIFS Single	52%	74.8°F	5.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	51%	74.6°F	7.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	49%	74.4°F	4.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	31%	71.3°F	6.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	9%	69.6°F	3.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KRDU

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KRDU-20261026-TMAX-GE75
Opened Oct 19 · 11:20 UTC

Original listing: Raleigh high ≥ 75°F · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗