KRDU / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Raleigh, NCHigh ≥ 75°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST38%Oct 20 · 16:17 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

52%

51%

49%

31%

Consensus

38%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 30.4¢Risks 30.45u

EPSNO 69.5¢Risks 69.55u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +69.55u · EPS −69.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T16:17:57+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-19T11:20:41+00:00	55.5%	6.7%	46.1%	23.3%	2.3%
2026-10-19T12:06:29+00:00	55.5%	6.7%	46.1%	23.3%	2.3%
2026-10-19T12:51:49+00:00	55.5%	6.7%	46.1%	23.3%	2.3%
2026-10-19T13:36:56+00:00	56.9%	6.7%	46.1%	23.3%	2.3%
2026-10-19T14:27:58+00:00	56.9%	6.7%	46.1%	23.3%	2.3%
2026-10-19T15:13:21+00:00	56.9%	6.3%	46.1%	23.3%	2.3%
2026-10-19T15:59:06+00:00	56.9%	6.3%	46.1%	23.3%	2.3%
2026-10-19T16:44:14+00:00	56.9%	6.3%	46.1%	23.3%	2.3%
2026-10-19T17:29:26+00:00	56.9%	6.3%	56.2%	23.3%	2.3%
2026-10-19T18:14:37+00:00	56.9%	6.3%	56.2%	23.3%	2.3%
2026-10-19T18:59:52+00:00	56.9%	6.3%	56.2%	23.3%	2.3%
2026-10-19T19:45:26+00:00	55.5%	6.3%	56.2%	25.2%	47.6%
2026-10-19T20:30:37+00:00	55.5%	6.3%	56.2%	25.2%	47.6%
2026-10-19T21:15:50+00:00	55.5%	6.3%	56.2%	25.2%	47.6%
2026-10-19T22:00:59+00:00	55.5%	6.3%	56.2%	25.2%	47.6%
2026-10-19T22:46:10+00:00	55.5%	6.3%	56.2%	25.2%	47.6%
2026-10-19T23:31:26+00:00	55.5%	6.3%	53.1%	25.2%	47.6%
2026-10-20T00:16:42+00:00	55.5%	6.3%	53.1%	25.2%	47.6%
2026-10-20T01:02:37+00:00	55.5%	6.3%	53.1%	25.2%	47.6%
2026-10-20T01:47:43+00:00	56.2%	6.3%	53.1%	25.2%	47.6%
2026-10-20T02:32:54+00:00	56.2%	6.3%	53.1%	25.2%	47.6%
2026-10-20T03:18:02+00:00	56.2%	6.3%	53.1%	25.2%	47.6%
2026-10-20T15:31:40+00:00	52.2%	8.7%	49.1%	31.4%	50.6%
2026-10-20T16:17:57+00:00	52.2%	8.7%	49.1%	31.4%	50.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	56%	75.0°F	3.2°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	75.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-20 14:00	Pending
AIFS Single	52%	74.8°F	5.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	51%	74.6°F	7.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	49%	74.4°F	4.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	31%	71.3°F	6.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	9%	69.6°F	3.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KRDU

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KRDU-20261026-TMAX-GE75
Opened Oct 19 · 11:20 UTC

Original listing: Raleigh high ≥ 75°F · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗