KRDU / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Raleigh, NCHigh ≥ 79°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST9%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

29%

25%

19%

14%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 15.0¢Risks 15.00u

EPSNO 85.0¢Risks 85.00u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +85.00u · EPS −85.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	14.6%	—	—	—	—	0.7%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	9.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	32.5%	—	—	—	—	19.3%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	5.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	13.1%	—	—	—	—	18.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	42.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	77.2%	—	—	—	—	24.8%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	68.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	47.9%	—	—	—	—	19.3%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	7.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	6.8%	—	—	—	—	14.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	35.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	—	—	—	13.4%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	10.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	—	—	—	14.9%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	41.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	9.0%	—	—	—	—	12.2%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	5.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	5.8%	—	—	—	—	8.2%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	3.0%	—	0.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	2.6%	—	—	—	—	9.3%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	3.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	2.0%	—	—	—	—	5.3%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	13.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	10.6%	—	26.7%	—	—	3.9%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	12.2%	—	15.7%	—	—	3.8%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	18.0%	—	11.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	19.8%	—	0.0%	—	—	6.7%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	20.8%	—	10.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	13.9%	0.0%	7.5%	—	—	4.0%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	14.2%	—	13.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	13.0%	5.2%	7.7%	0.1%	—	2.7%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	12.9%	—	8.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	9.6%	8.4%	11.3%	2.0%	10.6%	4.2%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	6.5%	—	12.7%	—	—	0.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	29%	74.6°F	7.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	25%	74.8°F	5.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	19%	74.4°F	4.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	17%	73.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
National Blend	15%	75.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	14%	71.3°F	6.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	<1%	69.6°F	3.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 79°F · KRDU

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KRDU-20261026-TMAX-GE79
Opened Oct 19 · 07:32 UTC

Original listing: Raleigh runs hot-for-here: 79°F+ · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗