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KRDU / Tue Oct 27 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Raleigh, NCHigh ≥ 76°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST41%Oct 20 · 15:31 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
AIFS
70%
WN2
60%
HRES
41%
EPS
18%
ICON
8%
Consensus
41%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
AIFSYES 39.1¢Risks 39.10u
VS
ICONNO 60.9¢Risks 60.90u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +60.90u · ICON −60.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 20.8% · 2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 50.5% · 2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 89.0% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 76.8% · 2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 31.1% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 27.4% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 77.2% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 40.0% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 7.5% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 17.2% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 17.2% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 61.5% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 28.3% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 19.3% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 26.1% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 24.0% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 23.5% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 14.5% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 23.7% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 36.3% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 37.7% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 43.1% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 36.8% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 41.7% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 22.8% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 14.6% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 24.9% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 26.6% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 41.6% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 23.7% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 48.6% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 42.5% · 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.1% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 42.4% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 45.2% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.4% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 33.5% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 12.8% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 25.7% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 33.3% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 41.3% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 52.1% · 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00GEM: 12.8% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 3.8% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 34.0% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 29.7% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 21.2% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 24.8% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 26.5% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 21.6% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 17.5% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 22.7% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 22.8% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 18.5% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 17.0% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 17.3% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 20.2% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 19.3% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 22.8% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:0010-12 06:0010-16 06:0010-20 06:00
AIFS SingleICONGFSGEMIFS archive
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSICONGFSGEMIFS*
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:0020.8%————
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:000.1%———3.8%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:0050.5%————
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:0089.0%———34.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:0076.8%————
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:0031.1%———29.7%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:0027.4%————
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:0077.2%———21.2%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:0040.0%————
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:007.5%———24.8%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:0017.2%————
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:0017.2%———26.5%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:0061.5%————
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:0028.3%———21.6%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:0019.3%————
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:0026.1%———17.5%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:0024.0%————
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:0023.5%———22.7%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:0014.5%————
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:0023.7%———22.8%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:0036.3%————
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:0037.7%———18.5%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:0043.1%————
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:0036.8%—42.4%—17.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:0041.7%—45.2%——
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:0022.8%———17.3%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:0014.6%—1.4%——
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:0024.9%—33.5%—20.2%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:0026.6%—12.8%——
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:0041.6%—25.7%—19.3%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:0023.7%—33.3%——
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:0048.6%0.1%41.3%12.8%22.8%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:0042.5%—52.1%——
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
AIFS Single70%78.5°F5.7°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 260%76.8°F5.1°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
National Blend56%76.0°F3.4°F2026-10-20 06:00Pending
IFS HRES41%74.0°F6.4°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble18%72.4°F3.4°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
ICON8%61.6°F10.0°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 76°F · KRDU

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KRDU-20261027-TMAX-GE76
Opened Oct 20 · 10:53 UTC

Original listing: Raleigh high ≥ 76°F · Tue Oct 27

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗