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KRDU / Tue Oct 27 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Raleigh, NCHigh ≥ 76°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST41%Oct 20 · 15:31 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
AIFS
70%
WN2
60%
HRES
41%
EPS
18%
ICON
8%
Consensus
41%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
AIFSYES 39.1¢Risks 39.10u
VS
ICONNO 60.9¢Risks 60.90u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +60.90u · ICON −60.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 69.9% · 2026-10-20T10:53:12+00:00AIFS Single: 69.9% · 2026-10-20T11:39:43+00:00AIFS Single: 69.9% · 2026-10-20T12:24:51+00:00AIFS Single: 69.9% · 2026-10-20T13:10:00+00:00AIFS Single: 70.0% · 2026-10-20T13:55:10+00:00AIFS Single: 70.0% · 2026-10-20T14:46:21+00:00AIFS Single: 70.0% · 2026-10-20T15:31:40+00:00IFS Ensemble: 18.1% · 2026-10-20T10:53:12+00:00IFS Ensemble: 18.1% · 2026-10-20T11:39:43+00:00IFS Ensemble: 18.1% · 2026-10-20T12:24:51+00:00IFS Ensemble: 18.1% · 2026-10-20T13:10:00+00:00IFS Ensemble: 18.1% · 2026-10-20T13:55:10+00:00IFS Ensemble: 18.1% · 2026-10-20T14:46:21+00:00IFS Ensemble: 18.1% · 2026-10-20T15:31:40+00:00WeatherNext 2: 60.1% · 2026-10-20T10:53:12+00:00WeatherNext 2: 60.1% · 2026-10-20T11:39:43+00:00WeatherNext 2: 60.1% · 2026-10-20T12:24:51+00:00WeatherNext 2: 60.1% · 2026-10-20T13:10:00+00:00WeatherNext 2: 60.1% · 2026-10-20T13:55:10+00:00WeatherNext 2: 60.1% · 2026-10-20T14:46:21+00:00WeatherNext 2: 60.1% · 2026-10-20T15:31:40+00:00IFS HRES: 40.8% · 2026-10-20T10:53:12+00:00IFS HRES: 40.8% · 2026-10-20T11:39:43+00:00IFS HRES: 40.8% · 2026-10-20T12:24:51+00:00IFS HRES: 40.8% · 2026-10-20T13:10:00+00:00IFS HRES: 40.8% · 2026-10-20T13:55:10+00:00IFS HRES: 40.8% · 2026-10-20T14:46:21+00:00IFS HRES: 40.8% · 2026-10-20T15:31:40+00:00ICON: 8.3% · 2026-10-20T10:53:12+00:00ICON: 8.3% · 2026-10-20T11:39:43+00:00ICON: 8.3% · 2026-10-20T12:24:51+00:00ICON: 8.3% · 2026-10-20T13:10:00+00:00ICON: 8.2% · 2026-10-20T13:55:10+00:00ICON: 8.2% · 2026-10-20T14:46:21+00:00ICON: 8.2% · 2026-10-20T15:31:40+00:0010-20 10:5310-20 13:1010-20 15:31
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-20T15:31:40+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-20T10:53:12+00:0069.9%18.1%60.1%40.8%8.3%
2026-10-20T11:39:43+00:0069.9%18.1%60.1%40.8%8.3%
2026-10-20T12:24:51+00:0069.9%18.1%60.1%40.8%8.3%
2026-10-20T13:10:00+00:0069.9%18.1%60.1%40.8%8.3%
2026-10-20T13:55:10+00:0070.0%18.1%60.1%40.8%8.2%
2026-10-20T14:46:21+00:0070.0%18.1%60.1%40.8%8.2%
2026-10-20T15:31:40+00:0070.0%18.1%60.1%40.8%8.2%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
AIFS Single70%78.5°F5.7°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 260%76.8°F5.1°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
National Blend56%76.0°F3.4°F2026-10-20 06:00Pending
IFS HRES41%74.0°F6.4°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble18%72.4°F3.4°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
ICON8%61.6°F10.0°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 76°F · KRDU

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KRDU-20261027-TMAX-GE76
Opened Oct 20 · 10:53 UTC

Original listing: Raleigh high ≥ 76°F · Tue Oct 27

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗