KRDU / Tue Oct 27 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Raleigh, NCHigh ≥ 79°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST15%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

50%

37%

24%

Consensus

15%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 26.8¢Risks 26.80u

EPSNO 73.2¢Risks 73.20u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +73.20u · EPS −73.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	11.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	1.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	79.6%	—	—	—	20.8%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	63.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	18.6%	—	—	—	17.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	63.6%	—	—	—	11.5%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	25.7%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	3.3%	—	—	—	14.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	—	—	15.2%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	45.8%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	16.5%	—	—	—	11.8%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	10.3%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	14.9%	—	—	—	9.1%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	13.4%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	13.1%	—	—	—	12.5%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	7.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	12.9%	—	—	—	12.3%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	22.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	23.0%	—	—	—	9.3%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	27.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	21.8%	—	26.4%	—	8.1%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	25.5%	—	28.5%	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	11.5%	—	—	—	8.1%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	6.5%	—	0.4%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	12.5%	—	18.5%	—	9.6%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	13.4%	—	5.3%	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	24.1%	—	12.7%	—	8.8%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	11.2%	—	17.6%	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	29.4%	0.0%	23.3%	5.0%	10.5%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	23.9%	—	32.0%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	50%	78.5°F	5.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	37%	76.8°F	5.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	28%	76.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	24%	74.0°F	6.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	5%	61.6°F	10.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	4%	72.4°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 79°F · KRDU

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KRDU-20261027-TMAX-GE79
Opened Oct 20 · 10:53 UTC

Original listing: Raleigh runs hot-for-here: 79°F+ · Tue Oct 27

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗