KRIC / Thu Oct 1 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Richmond, VAHigh ≥ 83°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESSep 25 · 02:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

92%

84%

72%

64%

60%

Consensus

72%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 76.2¢Risks 76.20u

WN2NO 23.8¢Risks 23.80u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +23.80u · WN2 −23.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	2.2%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	15.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	63.1%	—	—	—	—	19.7%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	—	—	—	19.7%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	—	—	—	19.3%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	18.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	53.7%	—	—	—	—	16.2%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	—	—	—	17.9%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	51.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	7.5%	—	—	—	—	15.6%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	36.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	—	—	—	22.0%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	3.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	18.5%	—	—	—	—	17.4%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	9.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	53.8%	—	—	—	—	16.4%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	58.3%	—	3.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	54.0%	—	—	—	—	20.1%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	47.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	52.9%	—	35.7%	—	—	30.3%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	32.7%	—	68.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	61.4%	—	7.2%	—	—	36.9%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	66.8%	—	1.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	16.1%	—	76.1%	—	—	37.0%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	74.5%	—	82.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	77.4%	—	31.8%	—	—	51.9%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	67.3%	—	21.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	48.0%	4.7%	23.3%	—	—	58.7%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	64.2%	—	94.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	77.0%	—	94.9%	6.0%	—	59.1%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	77.0%	—	80.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00	72.2%	67.7%	86.9%	31.7%	—	59.4%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	77.3%	—	89.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	81.6%	64.9%	92.2%	23.4%	—	68.4%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	85.5%	—	92.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	82.1%	63.3%	89.6%	43.6%	—	75.2%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	81.6%	6.5%	88.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	79.9%	67.0%	94.2%	61.5%	—	76.2%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	82.2%	71.2%	95.1%	—	—	0.1%
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	84.9%	80.4%	93.8%	42.2%	—	86.4%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	83.9%	71.3%	92.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	85.6%	74.1%	93.7%	57.3%	—	81.0%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	87.8%	87.3%	93.3%	—	—	84.6%
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	86.9%	90.2%	93.8%	67.8%	—	87.4%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	84.2%	92.7%	97.0%	—	—	0.0%
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	84.9%	91.8%	97.7%	63.1%	—	86.1%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	86.8%	97.7%	96.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	86.9%	96.5%	97.2%	68.9%	—	86.9%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	89.3%	96.7%	97.6%	0.0%	—	89.8%
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	88.4%	97.5%	98.0%	68.0%	73.0%	87.9%
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	86.8%	95.7%	97.7%	58.4%	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	87.6%	88.2%	97.9%	62.3%	64.6%	88.8%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	85.7%	89.7%	97.9%	55.1%	—	0.0%
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	88.0%	89.3%	97.6%	55.4%	64.4%	85.9%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	88.9%	92.9%	97.7%	58.3%	—	86.8%
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	87.8%	93.2%	97.5%	65.5%	65.5%	79.8%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	85.6%	91.4%	97.1%	63.3%	—	72.8%
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	85.8%	90.4%	98.0%	56.3%	69.7%	72.4%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	95.9%	95.5%	64.5%	—	66.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	92%	90.3°F	5.6°F	2026-09-24 18:00	0.0066
ICON	84%	92.1°F	9.8°F	2026-09-24 12:00	0.0269
IFS HRES	72%	86.2°F	6.4°F	2026-09-24 12:00	0.0790
IFS Ensemble	64%	83.5°F	2.8°F	2026-09-24 00:00	0.1296
WeatherNext 2	60%	83.8°F	4.9°F	2026-09-24 12:00	0.1560
National Blend	55%	83.0°F	4.2°F	2026-09-23 06:00	0.2052

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 83°F · KRIC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KRIC-20261001-TMAX-GE83
Opened Sep 24 · 07:27 UTC

Original listing: Richmond high ≥ 83°F · Thu Oct 1

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗