KRIC / Thu Oct 1 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Richmond, VAHigh ≥ 83°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESSep 25 · 02:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

92%

84%

72%

64%

60%

Consensus

72%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 76.2¢Risks 76.20u

WN2NO 23.8¢Risks 23.80u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +23.80u · WN2 −23.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-25T02:18:57+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-24T07:27:38+00:00	74.7%	54.8%	59.9%	80.2%	27.4%
2026-09-24T08:13:22+00:00	74.7%	54.8%	59.9%	80.2%	27.4%
2026-09-24T08:58:36+00:00	74.7%	54.8%	59.9%	80.2%	27.4%
2026-09-24T09:43:40+00:00	74.7%	54.8%	59.9%	80.2%	27.4%
2026-09-24T10:28:45+00:00	74.7%	54.8%	59.9%	80.2%	27.4%
2026-09-24T11:13:50+00:00	74.7%	74.3%	62.2%	80.2%	27.4%
2026-09-24T11:58:57+00:00	74.7%	74.3%	62.2%	80.2%	27.4%
2026-09-24T12:44:01+00:00	74.7%	74.3%	62.2%	80.2%	27.4%
2026-09-24T13:29:16+00:00	85.2%	74.3%	62.2%	80.2%	27.4%
2026-09-24T14:16:40+00:00	84.7%	74.3%	62.1%	80.2%	27.4%
2026-09-24T15:01:49+00:00	84.7%	64.0%	62.1%	80.2%	27.4%
2026-09-24T15:47:15+00:00	84.7%	64.0%	62.1%	80.2%	27.4%
2026-09-24T16:32:26+00:00	84.7%	64.0%	62.1%	80.2%	27.4%
2026-09-24T17:17:32+00:00	84.7%	64.0%	57.3%	80.2%	27.4%
2026-09-24T18:02:38+00:00	84.7%	64.0%	57.3%	80.2%	27.4%
2026-09-24T18:47:42+00:00	84.7%	64.0%	57.3%	80.2%	27.4%
2026-09-24T19:32:51+00:00	91.9%	64.0%	57.3%	80.2%	83.6%
2026-09-24T20:18:00+00:00	91.9%	64.0%	57.3%	80.2%	83.6%
2026-09-24T21:03:05+00:00	91.9%	64.0%	57.3%	80.2%	83.6%
2026-09-24T21:48:11+00:00	91.9%	64.0%	57.3%	80.2%	83.6%
2026-09-24T22:33:16+00:00	91.9%	64.0%	57.3%	71.9%	83.6%
2026-09-24T23:18:23+00:00	91.9%	64.0%	60.5%	71.9%	83.6%
2026-09-25T00:03:29+00:00	91.9%	64.0%	60.5%	71.9%	83.6%
2026-09-25T00:48:39+00:00	91.9%	64.0%	60.5%	71.9%	83.6%
2026-09-25T01:33:50+00:00	91.9%	64.0%	60.5%	71.9%	83.6%
2026-09-25T02:18:57+00:00	91.9%	64.0%	60.5%	71.9%	83.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	92%	90.3°F	5.6°F	2026-09-24 18:00	0.0066
ICON	84%	92.1°F	9.8°F	2026-09-24 12:00	0.0269
IFS HRES	72%	86.2°F	6.4°F	2026-09-24 12:00	0.0790
IFS Ensemble	64%	83.5°F	2.8°F	2026-09-24 00:00	0.1296
WeatherNext 2	60%	83.8°F	4.9°F	2026-09-24 12:00	0.1560
National Blend	55%	83.0°F	4.2°F	2026-09-23 06:00	0.2052

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 83°F · KRIC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KRIC-20261001-TMAX-GE83
Opened Sep 24 · 07:27 UTC

Original listing: Richmond high ≥ 83°F · Thu Oct 1

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗