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KRIC / Thu Oct 1 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Richmond, VAHigh ≥ 84°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESSep 26 · 13:44 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
AIFS
92%
HRES
78%
EPS
76%
ICON
69%
WN2
61%
Consensus
73%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
AIFSYES 76.8¢Risks 76.85u
VS
WN2NO 23.2¢Risks 23.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +23.15u · WN2 −23.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 93.3% · 2026-09-26T02:26:15+00:00AIFS Single: 93.3% · 2026-09-26T03:11:41+00:00AIFS Single: 93.3% · 2026-09-26T03:56:56+00:00AIFS Single: 93.3% · 2026-09-26T04:42:03+00:00AIFS Single: 93.3% · 2026-09-26T05:27:16+00:00AIFS Single: 93.3% · 2026-09-26T06:12:23+00:00AIFS Single: 93.3% · 2026-09-26T06:57:30+00:00AIFS Single: 93.0% · 2026-09-26T07:42:46+00:00AIFS Single: 93.0% · 2026-09-26T08:28:39+00:00AIFS Single: 93.0% · 2026-09-26T09:13:45+00:00AIFS Single: 93.0% · 2026-09-26T09:58:51+00:00AIFS Single: 93.0% · 2026-09-26T10:44:02+00:00AIFS Single: 93.0% · 2026-09-26T11:29:14+00:00AIFS Single: 93.0% · 2026-09-26T12:14:29+00:00AIFS Single: 93.0% · 2026-09-26T12:59:34+00:00AIFS Single: 92.5% · 2026-09-26T13:44:41+00:00IFS Ensemble: 36.5% · 2026-09-26T02:26:15+00:00IFS Ensemble: 36.5% · 2026-09-26T03:11:41+00:00IFS Ensemble: 36.5% · 2026-09-26T03:56:56+00:00IFS Ensemble: 36.5% · 2026-09-26T04:42:03+00:00IFS Ensemble: 36.5% · 2026-09-26T05:27:16+00:00IFS Ensemble: 36.5% · 2026-09-26T06:12:23+00:00IFS Ensemble: 36.5% · 2026-09-26T06:57:30+00:00IFS Ensemble: 36.5% · 2026-09-26T07:42:46+00:00IFS Ensemble: 36.5% · 2026-09-26T08:28:39+00:00IFS Ensemble: 36.5% · 2026-09-26T09:13:45+00:00IFS Ensemble: 36.5% · 2026-09-26T09:58:51+00:00IFS Ensemble: 36.5% · 2026-09-26T10:44:02+00:00IFS Ensemble: 76.4% · 2026-09-26T11:29:14+00:00IFS Ensemble: 76.4% · 2026-09-26T12:14:29+00:00IFS Ensemble: 76.4% · 2026-09-26T12:59:34+00:00IFS Ensemble: 76.4% · 2026-09-26T13:44:41+00:00WeatherNext 2: 60.4% · 2026-09-26T02:26:15+00:00WeatherNext 2: 60.4% · 2026-09-26T03:11:41+00:00WeatherNext 2: 60.4% · 2026-09-26T03:56:56+00:00WeatherNext 2: 60.4% · 2026-09-26T04:42:03+00:00WeatherNext 2: 64.6% · 2026-09-26T05:27:16+00:00WeatherNext 2: 64.6% · 2026-09-26T06:12:23+00:00WeatherNext 2: 64.6% · 2026-09-26T06:57:30+00:00WeatherNext 2: 64.6% · 2026-09-26T07:42:46+00:00WeatherNext 2: 64.6% · 2026-09-26T08:28:39+00:00WeatherNext 2: 64.6% · 2026-09-26T09:13:45+00:00WeatherNext 2: 64.6% · 2026-09-26T09:58:51+00:00WeatherNext 2: 64.6% · 2026-09-26T10:44:02+00:00WeatherNext 2: 61.2% · 2026-09-26T11:29:14+00:00WeatherNext 2: 61.2% · 2026-09-26T12:14:29+00:00WeatherNext 2: 61.2% · 2026-09-26T12:59:34+00:00WeatherNext 2: 61.2% · 2026-09-26T13:44:41+00:00IFS HRES: 75.5% · 2026-09-26T02:26:15+00:00IFS HRES: 75.5% · 2026-09-26T03:11:41+00:00IFS HRES: 75.5% · 2026-09-26T03:56:56+00:00IFS HRES: 75.5% · 2026-09-26T04:42:03+00:00IFS HRES: 75.5% · 2026-09-26T05:27:16+00:00IFS HRES: 75.5% · 2026-09-26T06:12:23+00:00IFS HRES: 75.5% · 2026-09-26T06:57:30+00:00IFS HRES: 78.5% · 2026-09-26T07:42:46+00:00IFS HRES: 78.5% · 2026-09-26T08:28:39+00:00IFS HRES: 78.5% · 2026-09-26T09:13:45+00:00IFS HRES: 78.5% · 2026-09-26T09:58:51+00:00IFS HRES: 78.5% · 2026-09-26T10:44:02+00:00IFS HRES: 78.5% · 2026-09-26T11:29:14+00:00IFS HRES: 78.5% · 2026-09-26T12:14:29+00:00IFS HRES: 78.5% · 2026-09-26T12:59:34+00:00IFS HRES: 78.5% · 2026-09-26T13:44:41+00:00ICON: 72.4% · 2026-09-26T02:26:15+00:00ICON: 72.4% · 2026-09-26T03:11:41+00:00ICON: 72.4% · 2026-09-26T03:56:56+00:00ICON: 69.0% · 2026-09-26T04:42:03+00:00ICON: 69.0% · 2026-09-26T05:27:16+00:00ICON: 69.0% · 2026-09-26T06:12:23+00:00ICON: 69.0% · 2026-09-26T06:57:30+00:00ICON: 69.0% · 2026-09-26T07:42:46+00:00ICON: 69.0% · 2026-09-26T08:28:39+00:00ICON: 69.0% · 2026-09-26T09:13:45+00:00ICON: 69.0% · 2026-09-26T09:58:51+00:00ICON: 69.0% · 2026-09-26T10:44:02+00:00ICON: 69.0% · 2026-09-26T11:29:14+00:00ICON: 69.0% · 2026-09-26T12:14:29+00:00ICON: 69.0% · 2026-09-26T12:59:34+00:00ICON: 69.0% · 2026-09-26T13:44:41+00:0009-26 02:2609-26 08:2809-26 13:44
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-09-26T13:44:41+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-09-26T02:26:15+00:0093.3%36.5%60.4%75.5%72.4%
2026-09-26T03:11:41+00:0093.3%36.5%60.4%75.5%72.4%
2026-09-26T03:56:56+00:0093.3%36.5%60.4%75.5%72.4%
2026-09-26T04:42:03+00:0093.3%36.5%60.4%75.5%69.0%
2026-09-26T05:27:16+00:0093.3%36.5%64.6%75.5%69.0%
2026-09-26T06:12:23+00:0093.3%36.5%64.6%75.5%69.0%
2026-09-26T06:57:30+00:0093.3%36.5%64.6%75.5%69.0%
2026-09-26T07:42:46+00:0093.0%36.5%64.6%78.5%69.0%
2026-09-26T08:28:39+00:0093.0%36.5%64.6%78.5%69.0%
2026-09-26T09:13:45+00:0093.0%36.5%64.6%78.5%69.0%
2026-09-26T09:58:51+00:0093.0%36.5%64.6%78.5%69.0%
2026-09-26T10:44:02+00:0093.0%36.5%64.6%78.5%69.0%
2026-09-26T11:29:14+00:0093.0%76.4%61.2%78.5%69.0%
2026-09-26T12:14:29+00:0093.0%76.4%61.2%78.5%69.0%
2026-09-26T12:59:34+00:0093.0%76.4%61.2%78.5%69.0%
2026-09-26T13:44:41+00:0092.5%76.4%61.2%78.5%69.0%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
AIFS Single92%90.6°F4.9°F2026-09-26 06:000.0056
IFS HRES78%88.1°F5.8°F2026-09-26 00:000.0462
IFS Ensemble76%85.3°F2.5°F2026-09-26 00:000.0557
ICON69%86.4°F5.8°F2026-09-26 00:000.0961
WeatherNext 261%84.7°F4.2°F2026-09-26 00:000.1505
National Blend56%84.0°F3.3°F2026-09-26 06:000.1927
NWS forecast54%84.0°F5.1°F2026-09-26 02:000.2125

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 84°F · KRIC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KRIC-20261001-TMAX-GE84
Opened Sep 26 · 02:26 UTC

Original listing: Richmond high ≥ 84°F · Thu Oct 1

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗