KRIC / Thu Oct 1 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Richmond, VAHigh ≥ 84°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESSep 26 · 13:44 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

92%

78%

76%

69%

61%

Consensus

73%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 76.8¢Risks 76.85u

WN2NO 23.2¢Risks 23.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +23.15u · WN2 −23.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	1.6%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	12.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	57.9%	—	—	—	—	16.2%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	16.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	17.5%	—	—	—	—	16.2%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	5.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	—	—	—	15.9%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	48.4%	—	—	—	—	13.1%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	18.2%	—	—	—	—	14.6%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	45.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	5.8%	—	—	—	—	12.6%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	11.0%	—	—	—	—	18.2%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	—	—	—	14.2%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	7.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	48.4%	—	—	—	—	13.2%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	52.8%	—	2.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	48.3%	—	—	—	—	16.3%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	41.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	47.1%	—	30.3%	—	—	25.4%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	27.5%	—	62.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	55.4%	—	5.3%	—	—	31.3%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	61.0%	—	1.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	12.5%	—	70.9%	—	—	31.3%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	69.0%	—	77.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	72.2%	—	26.2%	—	—	45.5%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	61.1%	—	17.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	41.3%	3.2%	18.4%	—	—	52.0%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	57.5%	—	91.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	71.4%	—	92.8%	4.2%	—	52.1%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	71.1%	—	74.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00	65.7%	60.8%	82.5%	25.4%	—	52.2%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	71.3%	—	86.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	76.1%	57.6%	89.0%	17.9%	—	61.3%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	80.5%	—	89.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	76.4%	55.6%	85.5%	35.9%	—	68.4%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	75.7%	4.3%	84.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	73.5%	59.1%	91.3%	53.3%	—	69.2%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	76.0%	63.4%	92.5%	—	—	0.0%
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	79.2%	73.8%	90.6%	33.8%	—	81.0%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	77.8%	63.2%	89.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	79.7%	66.1%	90.2%	48.2%	—	74.1%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	82.3%	81.7%	89.6%	—	—	78.3%
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	81.0%	85.3%	90.2%	58.7%	—	81.7%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	77.4%	88.6%	94.8%	—	—	0.0%
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	78.1%	87.2%	95.8%	53.1%	—	79.5%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	80.2%	95.8%	93.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	80.2%	93.8%	95.0%	58.7%	—	80.2%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	83.2%	94.0%	95.5%	0.0%	—	83.9%
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	81.7%	95.2%	96.0%	57.0%	62.6%	81.0%
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	79.2%	92.2%	95.5%	46.4%	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	80.1%	80.9%	95.7%	50.0%	52.5%	81.8%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	77.2%	82.6%	95.7%	42.3%	—	0.0%
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	80.0%	81.8%	95.0%	42.0%	51.3%	77.0%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	80.9%	86.8%	95.0%	44.4%	—	77.9%
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	78.8%	87.0%	94.5%	51.4%	51.4%	68.2%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	75.2%	83.8%	93.5%	48.5%	—	59.0%
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	75.0%	81.9%	95.2%	40.6%	54.7%	57.9%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	90.8%	90.1%	48.4%	—	50.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	92%	90.6°F	4.9°F	2026-09-26 06:00	0.0056
IFS HRES	78%	88.1°F	5.8°F	2026-09-26 00:00	0.0462
IFS Ensemble	76%	85.3°F	2.5°F	2026-09-26 00:00	0.0557
ICON	69%	86.4°F	5.8°F	2026-09-26 00:00	0.0961
WeatherNext 2	61%	84.7°F	4.2°F	2026-09-26 00:00	0.1505
National Blend	56%	84.0°F	3.3°F	2026-09-26 06:00	0.1927
NWS forecast	54%	84.0°F	5.1°F	2026-09-26 02:00	0.2125

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 84°F · KRIC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KRIC-20261001-TMAX-GE84
Opened Sep 26 · 02:26 UTC

Original listing: Richmond high ≥ 84°F · Thu Oct 1

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗