KRIC / Thu Oct 1 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Richmond, VAHigh ≥ 87°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESSep 29 · 03:36 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

81%

69%

60%

52%

15%

Consensus

51%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 48.0¢Risks 48.00u

WN2NO 52.0¢Risks 52.00u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +52.00u · WN2 −52.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.5%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	6.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	42.1%	—	—	—	—	8.3%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	8.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	9.1%	—	—	—	—	8.3%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	2.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	8.1%	—	—	—	—	8.1%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	7.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	—	—	6.4%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	18.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	9.6%	—	—	—	—	7.3%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	—	—	—	6.1%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	5.2%	—	—	—	—	9.6%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	7.6%	—	—	—	—	7.1%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	3.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	32.5%	—	—	—	—	6.3%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	36.3%	—	0.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	31.9%	—	—	—	—	7.9%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	25.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	30.3%	—	17.0%	—	—	13.5%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	14.8%	—	45.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	1.9%	—	—	17.3%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	42.6%	—	0.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	5.2%	—	53.1%	—	—	16.8%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	50.6%	—	60.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	53.9%	—	13.0%	—	—	27.3%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	41.4%	—	7.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	23.3%	0.9%	8.0%	—	—	32.4%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	37.1%	—	80.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	51.4%	—	82.5%	1.2%	—	31.7%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	50.7%	—	55.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00	44.2%	39.2%	65.0%	11.3%	—	31.0%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	70.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	55.3%	35.1%	74.2%	6.8%	—	38.7%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	60.8%	—	74.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	54.8%	32.3%	67.7%	16.9%	—	45.2%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	53.3%	1.0%	65.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	50.0%	34.5%	76.8%	29.3%	—	45.0%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	52.6%	38.2%	78.6%	—	—	0.0%
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	56.1%	49.1%	74.5%	14.1%	—	58.7%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	53.6%	36.8%	71.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	55.5%	39.1%	72.6%	23.0%	—	48.2%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	58.5%	57.5%	70.8%	—	—	52.8%
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	55.8%	62.4%	71.3%	30.4%	—	56.8%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	50.0%	67.4%	81.0%	—	—	0.0%
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	50.0%	64.1%	83.0%	24.3%	—	52.1%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	52.1%	82.4%	77.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	51.1%	76.2%	79.4%	27.3%	—	51.1%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	54.5%	76.0%	80.2%	0.0%	—	55.6%
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	51.2%	78.5%	81.0%	24.2%	28.9%	50.0%
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	46.4%	69.6%	78.4%	16.0%	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	46.3%	47.5%	78.3%	17.4%	19.1%	48.8%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	41.0%	48.7%	77.2%	12.2%	—	0.0%
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	43.3%	46.0%	73.9%	11.3%	16.5%	39.4%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	43.1%	52.8%	72.4%	11.8%	—	39.0%
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	38.6%	51.4%	69.5%	14.6%	14.6%	26.8%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	32.5%	44.0%	64.8%	12.0%	—	18.1%
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	30.3%	39.1%	68.3%	7.7%	14.2%	16.1%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	53.3%	51.6%	9.9%	—	10.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	81%	90.3°F	4.4°F	2026-09-28 18:00	0.0369
ICON	69%	88.4°F	3.9°F	2026-09-28 12:00	0.0980
IFS HRES	60%	87.6°F	4.5°F	2026-09-28 12:00	0.1624
NWS forecast	55%	87.0°F	3.9°F	2026-09-28 14:00	0.2016
IFS Ensemble	52%	86.6°F	2.1°F	2026-09-28 00:00	0.2314
National Blend	42%	85.8°F	3.3°F	2026-09-28 06:00	0.3411
WeatherNext 2	15%	82.7°F	3.7°F	2026-09-28 12:00	0.7191

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 87°F · KRIC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KRIC-20261001-TMAX-GE87
Opened Sep 28 · 14:48 UTC

Original listing: Richmond high ≥ 87°F · Thu Oct 1

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗