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KRIC / Thu Oct 1 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Richmond, VAHigh ≥ 87°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESSep 29 · 03:36 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
AIFS
81%
ICON
69%
HRES
60%
EPS
52%
WN2
15%
Consensus
51%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
AIFSYES 48.0¢Risks 48.00u
VS
WN2NO 52.0¢Risks 52.00u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +52.00u · WN2 −52.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 80.2% · 2026-09-28T14:48:30+00:00AIFS Single: 80.2% · 2026-09-28T15:34:01+00:00AIFS Single: 80.2% · 2026-09-28T16:19:07+00:00AIFS Single: 80.2% · 2026-09-28T17:04:13+00:00AIFS Single: 80.2% · 2026-09-28T17:49:21+00:00AIFS Single: 80.2% · 2026-09-28T18:34:27+00:00AIFS Single: 80.2% · 2026-09-28T19:19:33+00:00AIFS Single: 79.6% · 2026-09-28T20:04:42+00:00AIFS Single: 79.6% · 2026-09-28T20:49:49+00:00AIFS Single: 79.6% · 2026-09-28T21:34:53+00:00AIFS Single: 79.6% · 2026-09-28T22:19:57+00:00AIFS Single: 79.6% · 2026-09-28T23:05:03+00:00AIFS Single: 79.6% · 2026-09-28T23:50:09+00:00AIFS Single: 79.6% · 2026-09-29T00:35:16+00:00AIFS Single: 79.6% · 2026-09-29T01:20:26+00:00AIFS Single: 80.8% · 2026-09-29T02:05:35+00:00AIFS Single: 80.8% · 2026-09-29T02:51:00+00:00AIFS Single: 80.8% · 2026-09-29T03:36:05+00:00IFS Ensemble: 51.8% · 2026-09-28T14:48:30+00:00IFS Ensemble: 51.9% · 2026-09-28T15:34:01+00:00IFS Ensemble: 51.9% · 2026-09-28T16:19:07+00:00IFS Ensemble: 51.9% · 2026-09-28T17:04:13+00:00IFS Ensemble: 51.9% · 2026-09-28T17:49:21+00:00IFS Ensemble: 51.9% · 2026-09-28T18:34:27+00:00IFS Ensemble: 51.9% · 2026-09-28T19:19:33+00:00IFS Ensemble: 51.9% · 2026-09-28T20:04:42+00:00IFS Ensemble: 51.9% · 2026-09-28T20:49:49+00:00IFS Ensemble: 51.9% · 2026-09-28T21:34:53+00:00IFS Ensemble: 51.9% · 2026-09-28T22:19:57+00:00IFS Ensemble: 51.9% · 2026-09-28T23:05:03+00:00IFS Ensemble: 51.9% · 2026-09-28T23:50:09+00:00IFS Ensemble: 51.9% · 2026-09-29T00:35:16+00:00IFS Ensemble: 51.9% · 2026-09-29T01:20:26+00:00IFS Ensemble: 51.9% · 2026-09-29T02:05:35+00:00IFS Ensemble: 51.9% · 2026-09-29T02:51:00+00:00IFS Ensemble: 51.9% · 2026-09-29T03:36:05+00:00WeatherNext 2: 19.4% · 2026-09-28T14:48:30+00:00WeatherNext 2: 19.4% · 2026-09-28T15:34:01+00:00WeatherNext 2: 19.4% · 2026-09-28T16:19:07+00:00WeatherNext 2: 16.5% · 2026-09-28T17:04:13+00:00WeatherNext 2: 16.5% · 2026-09-28T17:49:21+00:00WeatherNext 2: 16.5% · 2026-09-28T18:34:27+00:00WeatherNext 2: 16.5% · 2026-09-28T19:19:33+00:00WeatherNext 2: 16.5% · 2026-09-28T20:04:42+00:00WeatherNext 2: 16.5% · 2026-09-28T20:49:49+00:00WeatherNext 2: 16.5% · 2026-09-28T21:34:53+00:00WeatherNext 2: 16.5% · 2026-09-28T22:19:57+00:00WeatherNext 2: 15.2% · 2026-09-28T23:05:03+00:00WeatherNext 2: 15.2% · 2026-09-28T23:50:09+00:00WeatherNext 2: 15.2% · 2026-09-29T00:35:16+00:00WeatherNext 2: 15.2% · 2026-09-29T01:20:26+00:00WeatherNext 2: 15.2% · 2026-09-29T02:05:35+00:00WeatherNext 2: 15.2% · 2026-09-29T02:51:00+00:00WeatherNext 2: 15.2% · 2026-09-29T03:36:05+00:00IFS HRES: 69.5% · 2026-09-28T14:48:30+00:00IFS HRES: 69.5% · 2026-09-28T15:34:01+00:00IFS HRES: 69.5% · 2026-09-28T16:19:07+00:00IFS HRES: 69.5% · 2026-09-28T17:04:13+00:00IFS HRES: 69.5% · 2026-09-28T17:49:21+00:00IFS HRES: 69.5% · 2026-09-28T18:34:27+00:00IFS HRES: 69.5% · 2026-09-28T19:19:33+00:00IFS HRES: 59.7% · 2026-09-28T20:04:42+00:00IFS HRES: 59.7% · 2026-09-28T20:49:49+00:00IFS HRES: 59.7% · 2026-09-28T21:34:53+00:00IFS HRES: 59.7% · 2026-09-28T22:19:57+00:00IFS HRES: 59.7% · 2026-09-28T23:05:03+00:00IFS HRES: 59.7% · 2026-09-28T23:50:09+00:00IFS HRES: 59.7% · 2026-09-29T00:35:16+00:00IFS HRES: 59.7% · 2026-09-29T01:20:26+00:00IFS HRES: 59.7% · 2026-09-29T02:05:35+00:00IFS HRES: 59.7% · 2026-09-29T02:51:00+00:00IFS HRES: 59.7% · 2026-09-29T03:36:05+00:00ICON: 67.8% · 2026-09-28T14:48:30+00:00ICON: 67.8% · 2026-09-28T15:34:01+00:00ICON: 67.8% · 2026-09-28T16:19:07+00:00ICON: 68.7% · 2026-09-28T17:04:13+00:00ICON: 68.7% · 2026-09-28T17:49:21+00:00ICON: 68.7% · 2026-09-28T18:34:27+00:00ICON: 68.7% · 2026-09-28T19:19:33+00:00ICON: 68.7% · 2026-09-28T20:04:42+00:00ICON: 68.7% · 2026-09-28T20:49:49+00:00ICON: 68.7% · 2026-09-28T21:34:53+00:00ICON: 68.7% · 2026-09-28T22:19:57+00:00ICON: 68.7% · 2026-09-28T23:05:03+00:00ICON: 68.7% · 2026-09-28T23:50:09+00:00ICON: 68.7% · 2026-09-29T00:35:16+00:00ICON: 68.7% · 2026-09-29T01:20:26+00:00ICON: 68.7% · 2026-09-29T02:05:35+00:00ICON: 68.7% · 2026-09-29T02:51:00+00:00ICON: 68.7% · 2026-09-29T03:36:05+00:0009-28 14:4809-28 21:3409-29 03:36
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-09-29T03:36:05+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-09-28T14:48:30+00:0080.2%51.8%19.4%69.5%67.8%
2026-09-28T15:34:01+00:0080.2%51.9%19.4%69.5%67.8%
2026-09-28T16:19:07+00:0080.2%51.9%19.4%69.5%67.8%
2026-09-28T17:04:13+00:0080.2%51.9%16.5%69.5%68.7%
2026-09-28T17:49:21+00:0080.2%51.9%16.5%69.5%68.7%
2026-09-28T18:34:27+00:0080.2%51.9%16.5%69.5%68.7%
2026-09-28T19:19:33+00:0080.2%51.9%16.5%69.5%68.7%
2026-09-28T20:04:42+00:0079.6%51.9%16.5%59.7%68.7%
2026-09-28T20:49:49+00:0079.6%51.9%16.5%59.7%68.7%
2026-09-28T21:34:53+00:0079.6%51.9%16.5%59.7%68.7%
2026-09-28T22:19:57+00:0079.6%51.9%16.5%59.7%68.7%
2026-09-28T23:05:03+00:0079.6%51.9%15.2%59.7%68.7%
2026-09-28T23:50:09+00:0079.6%51.9%15.2%59.7%68.7%
2026-09-29T00:35:16+00:0079.6%51.9%15.2%59.7%68.7%
2026-09-29T01:20:26+00:0079.6%51.9%15.2%59.7%68.7%
2026-09-29T02:05:35+00:0080.8%51.9%15.2%59.7%68.7%
2026-09-29T02:51:00+00:0080.8%51.9%15.2%59.7%68.7%
2026-09-29T03:36:05+00:0080.8%51.9%15.2%59.7%68.7%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
AIFS Single81%90.3°F4.4°F2026-09-28 18:000.0369
ICON69%88.4°F3.9°F2026-09-28 12:000.0980
IFS HRES60%87.6°F4.5°F2026-09-28 12:000.1624
NWS forecast55%87.0°F3.9°F2026-09-28 14:000.2016
IFS Ensemble52%86.6°F2.1°F2026-09-28 00:000.2314
National Blend42%85.8°F3.3°F2026-09-28 06:000.3411
WeatherNext 215%82.7°F3.7°F2026-09-28 12:000.7191

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 87°F · KRIC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KRIC-20261001-TMAX-GE87
Opened Sep 28 · 14:48 UTC

Original listing: Richmond high ≥ 87°F · Thu Oct 1

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗