KRIC / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Richmond, VAHigh ≥ 62°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 13 · 14:56 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

>99%

83%

82%

80%

Consensus

88%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 89.7¢Risks 44.85u

WN2NO 10.3¢Risks 5.15u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +5.15u · WN2 −5.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	5.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	17.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	49.5%	—	54.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	80.0%	—	—	—	—	86.0%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	85.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	94.8%	—	—	—	—	80.3%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	99.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	55.3%	—	—	—	—	85.4%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	80.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	89.0%	—	—	—	—	90.7%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	95.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	88.0%	—	—	—	—	94.7%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	69.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	40.5%	—	—	—	—	90.2%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	98.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	—	—	—	91.5%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	50.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	—	—	—	83.2%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	36.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	63.0%	—	—	—	—	83.3%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	75.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	99.8%	—	—	—	—	82.3%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	84.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	96.5%	—	79.5%	—	—	90.0%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	99.9%	—	93.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	99.3%	—	99.8%	—	—	94.3%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	71.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	99.8%	—	88.7%	—	—	91.7%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	83.2%	—	97.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	96.4%	—	87.7%	—	—	84.8%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	56.0%	—	99.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	43.9%	98.9%	100.0%	—	—	82.9%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	52.1%	—	99.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	25.7%	98.4%	98.2%	98.6%	—	86.7%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	29.5%	—	98.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	37.1%	—	97.9%	52.2%	—	88.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	26.8%	—	99.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	26.4%	39.4%	83.1%	54.6%	—	75.5%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	79.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	35.2%	95.2%	93.8%	80.0%	—	66.3%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	49.2%	67.4%	98.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	49.2%	78.7%	94.7%	72.8%	—	63.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	48.3%	81.6%	81.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	53.5%	99.1%	62.9%	59.6%	—	62.1%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	51.8%	98.5%	62.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	61.8%	97.9%	97.4%	65.3%	—	77.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	59.4%	100.0%	100.0%	—	—	97.8%
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	61.5%	100.0%	100.0%	99.9%	—	99.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	60.9%	100.0%	100.0%	—	—	99.0%
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	68.8%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	—	99.7%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	53.2%	100.0%	100.0%	—	—	99.0%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	59.7%	100.0%	100.0%	91.5%	100.0%	99.3%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	40.0%	100.0%	100.0%	80.2%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	51.2%	100.0%	100.0%	76.7%	—	96.9%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	48.8%	100.0%	100.0%	59.5%	—	92.6%
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	48.8%	100.0%	100.0%	56.2%	100.0%	89.4%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	43.6%	100.0%	100.0%	59.0%	—	89.1%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	44.6%	100.0%	100.0%	55.4%	100.0%	89.3%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	52.8%	100.0%	100.0%	48.6%	—	84.5%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	54.3%	100.0%	100.0%	58.6%	100.0%	81.8%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	0.6%	44.0%	26.0%	32.5%	—	16.2%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	1.0%	6.1%	1.1%	0.6%	0.7%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	1.1%	12.3%	2.6%	—	0.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	>99%	79.4°F	6.7°F	2026-10-13 00:00	0.9920
ICON	>99%	73.9°F	4.8°F	2026-10-13 00:00	0.9900
IFS HRES	83%	66.2°F	5.0°F	2026-10-13 00:00	0.6823
AIFS Single	82%	65.8°F	4.6°F	2026-10-13 06:00	0.6806
WeatherNext 2	80%	64.6°F	3.7°F	2026-10-13 00:00	0.6368
NWS forecast	55%	62.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-13 03:00	0.2970
National Blend	37%	60.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-13 06:00	0.1362

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 62°F · KRIC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KRIC-20261017-TMAX-GE62
Opened Oct 12 · 04:01 UTC

Original listing: Richmond high ≥ 62°F · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗