KRIC / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Richmond, VAHigh ≥ 62°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 13 · 14:56 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

>99%

83%

82%

80%

Consensus

88%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 89.7¢Risks 44.85u

WN2NO 10.3¢Risks 5.15u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +5.15u · WN2 −5.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-13T14:56:02+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-12T04:01:05+00:00	59.0%	96.4%	72.4%	56.1%	61.8%
2026-10-12T04:47:13+00:00	59.0%	96.4%	72.4%	56.1%	61.8%
2026-10-12T05:32:19+00:00	59.0%	96.4%	74.5%	56.1%	61.8%
2026-10-12T06:17:27+00:00	59.0%	96.4%	74.5%	56.1%	61.8%
2026-10-12T07:02:33+00:00	59.0%	96.4%	74.5%	56.1%	61.8%
2026-10-12T07:47:48+00:00	66.6%	96.4%	74.5%	60.9%	96.8%
2026-10-12T08:34:23+00:00	66.6%	96.4%	74.5%	60.9%	96.8%
2026-10-12T09:19:36+00:00	66.6%	96.4%	74.5%	60.9%	96.8%
2026-10-12T10:04:57+00:00	66.6%	96.4%	74.5%	60.9%	96.8%
2026-10-12T10:50:07+00:00	66.6%	96.4%	74.5%	60.9%	96.8%
2026-10-12T11:35:22+00:00	66.6%	96.4%	78.5%	60.9%	96.8%
2026-10-12T12:20:46+00:00	66.6%	99.5%	78.5%	60.9%	96.8%
2026-10-12T13:05:54+00:00	66.6%	99.5%	78.5%	60.9%	96.8%
2026-10-12T13:51:02+00:00	78.7%	99.5%	78.5%	60.9%	96.8%
2026-10-12T14:41:15+00:00	78.6%	99.5%	78.4%	60.9%	96.8%
2026-10-13T04:15:19+00:00	78.1%	99.5%	76.9%	48.6%	86.2%
2026-10-13T05:01:43+00:00	78.1%	99.5%	81.1%	48.6%	86.2%
2026-10-13T05:46:50+00:00	78.1%	99.5%	81.1%	48.6%	86.2%
2026-10-13T06:32:04+00:00	78.1%	99.5%	81.1%	48.6%	86.2%
2026-10-13T07:17:16+00:00	78.1%	99.5%	81.1%	48.6%	86.2%
2026-10-13T08:02:44+00:00	83.6%	99.5%	81.1%	82.6%	99.5%
2026-10-13T08:49:38+00:00	83.6%	99.5%	81.1%	82.6%	99.5%
2026-10-13T09:34:44+00:00	83.6%	99.5%	81.1%	82.6%	99.5%
2026-10-13T10:19:51+00:00	83.6%	99.5%	81.1%	82.6%	99.5%
2026-10-13T11:05:10+00:00	83.6%	99.6%	79.7%	82.6%	99.5%
2026-10-13T11:50:34+00:00	83.6%	99.6%	79.7%	82.6%	99.5%
2026-10-13T12:35:47+00:00	83.6%	99.6%	79.7%	82.6%	99.5%
2026-10-13T13:20:53+00:00	83.6%	99.6%	79.7%	82.6%	99.5%
2026-10-13T14:06:00+00:00	82.5%	99.6%	79.8%	82.6%	99.5%
2026-10-13T14:56:02+00:00	82.5%	99.6%	79.8%	82.6%	99.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	>99%	79.4°F	6.7°F	2026-10-13 00:00	0.9920
ICON	>99%	73.9°F	4.8°F	2026-10-13 00:00	0.9900
IFS HRES	83%	66.2°F	5.0°F	2026-10-13 00:00	0.6823
AIFS Single	82%	65.8°F	4.6°F	2026-10-13 06:00	0.6806
WeatherNext 2	80%	64.6°F	3.7°F	2026-10-13 00:00	0.6368
NWS forecast	55%	62.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-13 03:00	0.2970
National Blend	37%	60.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-13 06:00	0.1362

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 62°F · KRIC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KRIC-20261017-TMAX-GE62
Opened Oct 12 · 04:01 UTC

Original listing: Richmond high ≥ 62°F · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗