KRIC / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Richmond, VAHigh ≥ 64°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 15 · 03:16 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

67%

47%

30%

24%

15%

Consensus

41%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 41.1¢Risks 41.10u

HRESNO 58.9¢Risks 58.90u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +58.90u · HRES −58.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	10.0%	—	—	—	—	23.2%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	70.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	26.5%	—	—	—	—	79.6%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	89.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	89.5%	—	—	—	—	82.1%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	95.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	68.9%	—	—	—	—	84.5%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	75.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	—	—	—	72.1%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	6.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	11.0%	—	—	—	—	76.4%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	10.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	39.0%	—	—	—	—	59.0%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	55.3%	—	—	—	—	60.0%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	54.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	92.9%	—	—	—	—	63.1%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	68.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	44.0%	—	—	—	—	59.3%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	49.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	88.7%	—	—	—	—	59.6%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	9.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	87.4%	—	—	—	—	53.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	21.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	20.6%	—	—	60.2%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	6.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	13.9%	—	71.5%	—	—	42.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	2.8%	—	12.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	16.8%	—	10.1%	—	—	42.9%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	17.2%	—	1.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	6.8%	—	1.8%	—	—	27.1%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	14.2%	—	1.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	46.5%	40.3%	4.5%	6.9%	—	40.3%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	62.7%	—	17.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	52.9%	64.3%	21.0%	15.2%	—	45.6%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	36.8%	—	30.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	43.2%	80.0%	27.0%	37.2%	—	42.4%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	50.8%	—	21.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	33.7%	61.8%	35.2%	29.5%	—	33.7%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	29.0%	3.4%	52.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	30.0%	72.8%	58.3%	18.9%	—	27.2%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	17.8%	48.3%	64.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	15.6%	34.6%	57.0%	14.6%	—	9.7%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	22.9%	24.2%	58.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	29.7%	11.9%	52.8%	4.3%	—	8.3%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	34.3%	19.0%	42.5%	—	—	6.7%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	24.7%	14.7%	30.4%	2.7%	—	10.2%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	43.0%	20.4%	35.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	29.4%	20.4%	18.3%	17.0%	—	12.8%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	26.2%	17.6%	8.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	22.1%	17.6%	2.6%	16.9%	—	3.3%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	29.6%	13.5%	1.0%	0.0%	—	8.3%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	22.4%	12.7%	4.8%	16.0%	—	12.7%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	25.3%	15.2%	6.2%	13.9%	—	12.6%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	25.6%	15.1%	8.5%	13.0%	2.6%	11.2%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	23.8%	13.5%	8.7%	12.2%	—	11.5%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	21.0%	12.0%	8.4%	10.1%	4.6%	8.9%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	21.1%	11.1%	7.6%	9.8%	—	9.2%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	22.2%	13.0%	13.8%	5.9%	5.1%	11.5%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	14.4%	11.2%	16.2%	3.7%	—	6.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	17.1%	8.9%	17.1%	4.8%	3.1%	7.1%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	13.2%	17.0%	5.3%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	67%	65.5°F	4.6°F	2026-10-14 18:00	0.4462
National Blend	55%	64.0°F	4.0°F	2026-10-14 06:00	0.3014
NWS forecast	55%	64.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-14 14:00	0.2970
WeatherNext 2	47%	63.2°F	3.7°F	2026-10-14 12:00	0.2190
IFS Ensemble	30%	60.7°F	5.2°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.0882
ICON	24%	60.1°F	4.8°F	2026-10-14 12:00	0.0581
IFS HRES	15%	58.4°F	5.0°F	2026-10-14 12:00	0.0237

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 64°F · KRIC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KRIC-20261018-TMAX-GE64
Opened Oct 13 · 15:41 UTC

Original listing: Richmond high ≥ 64°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗