KRIC / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Richmond, VAHigh ≥ 64°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 15 · 03:16 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

67%

47%

30%

24%

15%

Consensus

41%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 41.1¢Risks 41.10u

HRESNO 58.9¢Risks 58.90u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +58.90u · HRES −58.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-15T03:16:36+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-13T15:41:19+00:00	58.0%	49.1%	54.8%	49.3%	75.7%
2026-10-13T16:27:01+00:00	58.0%	49.1%	54.8%	49.3%	75.7%
2026-10-13T17:12:08+00:00	58.0%	49.1%	58.7%	49.3%	75.7%
2026-10-13T17:57:16+00:00	58.0%	49.1%	58.7%	49.3%	75.7%
2026-10-13T18:42:21+00:00	58.0%	49.1%	58.7%	49.3%	75.7%
2026-10-13T19:27:26+00:00	59.6%	49.1%	58.7%	49.3%	82.5%
2026-10-13T20:12:32+00:00	59.6%	49.1%	58.7%	49.3%	82.5%
2026-10-13T20:57:41+00:00	59.6%	49.1%	58.7%	49.3%	82.5%
2026-10-13T21:43:01+00:00	59.6%	49.1%	58.7%	49.3%	82.5%
2026-10-13T22:28:22+00:00	59.6%	49.1%	58.7%	45.9%	82.5%
2026-10-13T23:13:32+00:00	59.6%	49.1%	62.4%	45.9%	82.5%
2026-10-13T23:58:43+00:00	59.6%	49.1%	62.4%	45.9%	82.5%
2026-10-14T00:43:51+00:00	59.6%	49.1%	62.4%	45.9%	82.5%
2026-10-14T01:29:07+00:00	46.0%	49.1%	62.4%	45.9%	82.5%
2026-10-14T02:14:17+00:00	46.0%	49.1%	62.4%	45.9%	82.5%
2026-10-14T02:59:31+00:00	46.0%	49.1%	62.4%	45.9%	82.5%
2026-10-14T03:45:25+00:00	46.0%	49.1%	62.4%	45.9%	82.5%
2026-10-14T04:30:44+00:00	46.0%	49.1%	62.4%	45.9%	82.5%
2026-10-14T05:15:51+00:00	46.0%	49.1%	62.4%	45.9%	82.5%
2026-10-14T06:00:58+00:00	46.0%	49.1%	62.4%	45.9%	82.5%
2026-10-14T06:46:11+00:00	46.0%	49.1%	62.4%	45.9%	82.5%
2026-10-14T07:31:25+00:00	43.1%	49.1%	62.4%	45.9%	48.3%
2026-10-14T08:16:33+00:00	43.1%	49.1%	62.4%	45.9%	48.3%
2026-10-14T09:01:44+00:00	43.1%	49.1%	62.4%	45.9%	48.3%
2026-10-14T09:46:51+00:00	43.1%	49.1%	62.4%	45.9%	48.3%
2026-10-14T10:32:15+00:00	43.1%	49.1%	62.4%	19.5%	48.3%
2026-10-14T11:20:37+00:00	43.1%	27.7%	51.1%	19.5%	48.3%
2026-10-14T12:06:11+00:00	43.1%	27.7%	51.1%	19.5%	48.3%
2026-10-14T12:51:18+00:00	43.1%	27.7%	51.1%	19.5%	48.3%
2026-10-14T13:36:26+00:00	53.5%	27.7%	51.1%	19.5%	48.3%
2026-10-14T14:26:48+00:00	53.5%	27.7%	51.1%	19.5%	49.2%
2026-10-14T15:12:03+00:00	53.5%	29.7%	51.1%	19.5%	49.2%
2026-10-14T15:57:52+00:00	53.5%	29.7%	51.1%	19.5%	49.2%
2026-10-14T16:43:02+00:00	53.5%	29.7%	51.1%	19.5%	49.2%
2026-10-14T17:28:10+00:00	53.5%	29.7%	42.5%	19.5%	49.2%
2026-10-14T18:13:19+00:00	53.5%	29.7%	42.5%	19.5%	49.2%
2026-10-14T18:58:25+00:00	53.5%	29.7%	42.5%	19.5%	49.2%
2026-10-14T19:43:32+00:00	62.8%	29.7%	42.5%	15.4%	24.1%
2026-10-14T20:28:47+00:00	62.8%	29.7%	42.5%	15.4%	24.1%
2026-10-14T21:13:54+00:00	62.8%	29.7%	42.5%	15.4%	24.1%
2026-10-14T21:59:01+00:00	62.8%	29.7%	42.5%	15.4%	24.1%
2026-10-14T22:44:07+00:00	62.8%	29.7%	42.5%	15.4%	24.1%
2026-10-14T23:29:31+00:00	62.8%	29.7%	46.8%	15.4%	24.1%
2026-10-15T00:14:39+00:00	62.8%	29.7%	46.8%	15.4%	24.1%
2026-10-15T01:01:07+00:00	62.8%	29.7%	46.8%	15.4%	24.1%
2026-10-15T01:46:16+00:00	66.8%	29.7%	46.8%	15.4%	24.1%
2026-10-15T02:31:28+00:00	66.8%	29.7%	46.8%	15.4%	24.1%
2026-10-15T03:16:36+00:00	66.8%	29.7%	46.8%	15.4%	24.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	67%	65.5°F	4.6°F	2026-10-14 18:00	0.4462
National Blend	55%	64.0°F	4.0°F	2026-10-14 06:00	0.3014
NWS forecast	55%	64.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-14 14:00	0.2970
WeatherNext 2	47%	63.2°F	3.7°F	2026-10-14 12:00	0.2190
IFS Ensemble	30%	60.7°F	5.2°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.0882
ICON	24%	60.1°F	4.8°F	2026-10-14 12:00	0.0581
IFS HRES	15%	58.4°F	5.0°F	2026-10-14 12:00	0.0237

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 64°F · KRIC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KRIC-20261018-TMAX-GE64
Opened Oct 13 · 15:41 UTC

Original listing: Richmond high ≥ 64°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗