KRIC / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Richmond, VAHigh ≤ 59°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 18 · 07:15 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

59%

36%

15%

Consensus

20%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 32.4¢Risks 32.35u

WN2NO 67.7¢Risks 67.65u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +67.65u · WN2 −67.65u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	93.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	77.2%	—	—	—	—	57.9%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	14.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	53.7%	—	—	—	—	8.7%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	3.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	3.7%	—	—	—	—	7.3%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	—	—	—	6.1%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	11.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	41.5%	—	—	—	—	13.1%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	83.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	75.6%	—	—	—	—	10.5%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	76.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	40.0%	—	—	—	—	22.4%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	46.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	—	—	—	21.6%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	2.2%	—	—	—	—	19.2%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	15.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	—	—	—	21.6%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	3.8%	—	—	—	—	20.9%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	77.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	4.1%	—	—	—	—	24.9%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	58.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	75.3%	—	58.4%	—	—	19.3%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	81.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	67.6%	—	11.6%	—	—	33.0%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	89.7%	—	69.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	62.2%	—	73.2%	—	—	31.8%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	61.1%	—	94.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	79.2%	—	92.0%	—	—	47.3%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	64.8%	—	94.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	26.9%	32.3%	83.8%	78.1%	—	32.3%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	14.8%	—	59.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	21.0%	13.6%	52.9%	61.6%	—	26.6%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	41.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	27.7%	5.4%	43.9%	33.0%	—	28.3%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	21.1%	—	50.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	35.2%	13.6%	33.7%	39.7%	—	35.2%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	39.5%	84.2%	18.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	37.7%	7.4%	14.8%	51.7%	—	40.9%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	52.6%	20.8%	11.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	55.2%	31.4%	14.6%	57.0%	—	66.2%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	43.7%	42.0%	13.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	34.7%	60.0%	16.0%	78.4%	—	67.8%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	29.2%	47.2%	22.4%	—	—	70.8%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	38.5%	52.9%	32.1%	82.9%	—	61.5%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	20.4%	43.0%	26.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	31.2%	41.8%	44.9%	46.9%	—	54.1%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	33.5%	44.7%	61.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	37.1%	43.5%	80.2%	44.5%	—	77.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	27.6%	48.9%	88.2%	99.9%	—	60.0%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	34.1%	48.8%	69.0%	43.0%	—	48.8%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	29.3%	42.8%	63.0%	45.2%	—	47.6%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	27.6%	41.3%	55.0%	45.0%	75.4%	48.8%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	28.0%	42.3%	52.6%	44.9%	—	46.1%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	29.5%	43.3%	51.3%	47.3%	63.2%	50.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	27.6%	43.1%	51.4%	45.8%	—	47.2%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	24.5%	37.2%	35.8%	54.3%	57.2%	40.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	32.5%	38.1%	29.8%	60.5%	—	51.5%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	26.3%	40.6%	26.3%	53.2%	60.9%	45.3%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	100.0%	29.5%	24.1%	48.4%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	59%	58.7°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.3481
NWS forecast	41%	60.0°F	2.1°F	2026-10-18 03:00	0.1665
IFS HRES	36%	60.8°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.1318
National Blend	25%	61.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-18 00:00	0.0635
IFS Ensemble	15%	62.5°F	2.9°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.0213
AIFS Single	9%	64.8°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	0.0079
WeatherNext 2	6%	64.1°F	2.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	0.0032

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≤ 59°F · KRIC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KRIC-20261018-TMAX-LE59
Opened Oct 14 · 10:32 UTC

Original listing: Richmond stays cold-for-here: high ≤ 59°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗