KRIC / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Richmond, VAHigh ≤ 59°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 18 · 07:15 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

59%

36%

15%

Consensus

20%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 32.4¢Risks 32.35u

WN2NO 67.7¢Risks 67.65u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +67.65u · WN2 −67.65u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T07:15:31+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-14T10:32:15+00:00	24.3%	18.2%	9.9%	52.4%	21.5%
2026-10-14T11:20:37+00:00	24.3%	43.2%	13.5%	52.4%	21.5%
2026-10-14T12:06:11+00:00	24.3%	43.2%	13.5%	52.4%	21.5%
2026-10-14T12:51:18+00:00	24.3%	43.2%	13.5%	52.4%	21.5%
2026-10-14T13:36:26+00:00	16.9%	43.2%	13.5%	52.4%	21.5%
2026-10-14T14:26:48+00:00	16.9%	43.2%	13.5%	52.4%	21.0%
2026-10-14T15:12:03+00:00	16.9%	40.9%	13.5%	52.4%	21.0%
2026-10-14T15:57:52+00:00	16.9%	40.9%	13.5%	52.4%	21.0%
2026-10-14T16:43:02+00:00	16.9%	40.9%	13.5%	52.4%	21.0%
2026-10-14T17:28:10+00:00	16.9%	40.9%	18.8%	52.4%	21.0%
2026-10-14T18:13:19+00:00	16.9%	40.9%	18.8%	52.4%	21.0%
2026-10-14T18:58:25+00:00	16.9%	40.9%	18.8%	52.4%	21.0%
2026-10-14T19:43:32+00:00	11.6%	40.9%	18.8%	58.7%	45.1%
2026-10-14T20:28:47+00:00	11.6%	40.9%	18.8%	58.7%	45.1%
2026-10-14T21:13:54+00:00	11.6%	40.9%	18.8%	58.7%	45.1%
2026-10-14T21:59:01+00:00	11.6%	40.9%	18.8%	58.7%	45.1%
2026-10-14T22:44:07+00:00	11.6%	40.9%	18.8%	58.7%	45.1%
2026-10-14T23:29:31+00:00	11.6%	41.0%	16.0%	58.7%	45.1%
2026-10-15T00:14:39+00:00	11.6%	41.0%	16.0%	58.7%	45.1%
2026-10-15T01:01:07+00:00	11.6%	41.0%	16.0%	58.7%	45.1%
2026-10-15T01:46:16+00:00	9.6%	41.0%	16.0%	58.7%	45.1%
2026-10-15T02:31:28+00:00	9.6%	41.0%	16.0%	58.7%	45.1%
2026-10-15T03:16:36+00:00	9.6%	41.0%	16.0%	58.7%	45.1%
2026-10-15T04:01:52+00:00	9.6%	41.0%	16.0%	58.7%	45.1%
2026-10-15T04:47:49+00:00	9.6%	41.0%	16.0%	58.7%	45.1%
2026-10-15T05:33:15+00:00	9.6%	41.0%	11.3%	58.7%	45.1%
2026-10-15T06:18:25+00:00	9.6%	41.0%	11.3%	58.7%	45.1%
2026-10-15T07:03:33+00:00	9.6%	41.0%	11.3%	58.7%	45.1%
2026-10-15T07:49:04+00:00	12.2%	41.0%	11.3%	51.8%	46.0%
2026-10-15T08:35:49+00:00	12.2%	41.0%	11.3%	51.8%	46.0%
2026-10-15T09:21:36+00:00	12.2%	41.0%	11.3%	51.8%	46.0%
2026-10-15T10:07:21+00:00	12.2%	41.0%	11.3%	51.8%	46.0%
2026-10-15T10:52:49+00:00	12.2%	41.0%	11.3%	51.8%	46.0%
2026-10-15T11:39:07+00:00	12.2%	41.0%	8.6%	51.8%	46.0%
2026-10-15T12:24:49+00:00	12.2%	38.9%	8.6%	51.8%	46.0%
2026-10-15T13:10:08+00:00	12.2%	38.9%	8.6%	51.8%	46.0%
2026-10-15T13:55:47+00:00	5.1%	39.0%	8.6%	51.8%	46.0%
2026-10-15T14:48:23+00:00	5.1%	39.0%	8.6%	51.8%	46.0%
2026-10-15T15:33:45+00:00	5.1%	36.2%	8.6%	51.8%	46.0%
2026-10-15T16:19:53+00:00	5.1%	36.2%	8.6%	51.8%	46.0%
2026-10-15T17:05:20+00:00	5.1%	36.2%	3.3%	51.8%	46.0%
2026-10-15T17:50:35+00:00	5.1%	36.2%	3.3%	51.8%	46.0%
2026-10-15T18:35:56+00:00	5.1%	36.2%	3.3%	51.8%	46.0%
2026-10-15T19:21:06+00:00	5.1%	36.2%	3.3%	51.8%	46.0%
2026-10-15T20:06:13+00:00	9.5%	36.2%	3.3%	43.8%	35.3%
2026-10-15T20:51:27+00:00	9.5%	36.2%	3.3%	43.8%	35.3%
2026-10-15T21:36:41+00:00	9.5%	36.2%	3.3%	43.8%	35.3%
2026-10-15T22:21:48+00:00	9.5%	36.2%	3.3%	43.8%	35.3%
2026-10-15T23:06:58+00:00	9.5%	36.2%	7.3%	43.8%	35.3%
2026-10-15T23:52:12+00:00	9.5%	36.2%	7.3%	43.8%	35.3%
2026-10-16T00:37:21+00:00	9.5%	36.2%	7.3%	43.8%	35.3%
2026-10-16T01:22:40+00:00	10.8%	36.2%	7.3%	43.8%	35.3%
2026-10-16T02:08:03+00:00	10.8%	36.2%	7.3%	43.8%	35.3%
2026-10-16T02:53:27+00:00	10.8%	36.2%	7.3%	43.8%	35.3%
2026-10-16T03:38:38+00:00	10.8%	36.2%	7.3%	43.8%	35.3%
2026-10-16T04:23:54+00:00	10.8%	36.2%	7.3%	43.8%	35.3%
2026-10-16T05:10:23+00:00	10.8%	36.2%	8.6%	43.8%	35.3%
2026-10-16T05:55:49+00:00	10.8%	36.2%	8.6%	43.8%	35.3%
2026-10-16T06:41:01+00:00	10.8%	36.2%	8.6%	43.8%	35.3%
2026-10-16T07:26:12+00:00	11.4%	36.2%	8.6%	43.8%	46.6%
2026-10-16T08:11:22+00:00	11.4%	36.2%	8.6%	43.8%	46.6%
2026-10-16T08:56:32+00:00	11.4%	36.2%	8.6%	43.8%	46.6%
2026-10-16T09:41:40+00:00	11.4%	36.2%	8.6%	43.8%	46.6%
2026-10-16T10:26:47+00:00	11.4%	36.2%	8.6%	43.8%	46.6%
2026-10-16T11:12:06+00:00	11.4%	47.7%	12.9%	43.8%	46.6%
2026-10-16T11:57:36+00:00	11.4%	47.7%	12.9%	43.8%	46.6%
2026-10-16T12:42:47+00:00	11.4%	47.7%	12.9%	43.8%	46.6%
2026-10-16T13:28:03+00:00	8.1%	47.7%	12.9%	56.8%	46.6%
2026-10-16T14:19:40+00:00	8.1%	47.7%	12.9%	56.8%	46.6%
2026-10-16T15:05:11+00:00	8.1%	48.9%	12.9%	56.8%	46.6%
2026-10-16T15:50:53+00:00	8.1%	48.9%	12.9%	56.8%	46.6%
2026-10-16T16:36:07+00:00	8.1%	48.9%	12.9%	56.8%	46.6%
2026-10-16T17:21:17+00:00	8.1%	48.9%	6.1%	56.8%	46.6%
2026-10-16T18:06:35+00:00	8.1%	48.9%	6.1%	56.8%	46.6%
2026-10-16T18:51:41+00:00	8.1%	48.9%	6.1%	56.8%	46.6%
2026-10-16T19:36:53+00:00	10.5%	48.9%	6.1%	56.8%	52.3%
2026-10-16T20:22:21+00:00	10.5%	48.9%	6.1%	56.8%	52.3%
2026-10-16T21:07:44+00:00	10.5%	48.9%	6.1%	56.8%	52.3%
2026-10-16T21:52:50+00:00	10.5%	48.9%	6.1%	56.8%	52.3%
2026-10-16T22:37:58+00:00	10.5%	48.9%	6.1%	35.7%	52.3%
2026-10-16T23:23:19+00:00	10.5%	48.9%	7.3%	35.7%	52.3%
2026-10-17T00:08:47+00:00	10.5%	48.9%	7.3%	35.7%	52.3%
2026-10-17T00:54:55+00:00	10.5%	48.9%	7.3%	35.7%	52.3%
2026-10-17T01:40:04+00:00	9.2%	48.9%	7.3%	35.7%	52.3%
2026-10-17T02:25:17+00:00	9.2%	48.9%	7.3%	35.7%	52.3%
2026-10-17T03:10:27+00:00	9.2%	48.9%	7.3%	35.7%	52.3%
2026-10-17T03:55:36+00:00	9.2%	48.9%	7.3%	35.7%	52.3%
2026-10-17T04:41:02+00:00	9.2%	48.9%	7.3%	35.7%	52.3%
2026-10-17T05:28:21+00:00	9.2%	48.9%	6.1%	35.7%	52.3%
2026-10-17T06:13:34+00:00	9.2%	48.9%	6.1%	35.7%	52.3%
2026-10-17T06:58:44+00:00	9.2%	48.9%	6.1%	35.7%	52.3%
2026-10-17T07:44:02+00:00	7.8%	48.9%	6.1%	34.3%	56.7%
2026-10-17T08:30:37+00:00	7.8%	48.9%	6.1%	34.3%	56.7%
2026-10-17T09:16:28+00:00	7.8%	48.9%	6.1%	34.3%	56.7%
2026-10-17T10:01:48+00:00	7.8%	48.9%	6.1%	34.3%	56.7%
2026-10-17T10:46:53+00:00	7.8%	48.9%	6.1%	34.3%	56.7%
2026-10-17T11:32:00+00:00	7.8%	18.0%	7.4%	34.3%	56.7%
2026-10-17T12:17:26+00:00	7.8%	18.0%	7.4%	34.3%	56.7%
2026-10-17T13:02:32+00:00	7.8%	18.0%	7.4%	34.3%	56.7%
2026-10-17T13:47:48+00:00	8.2%	18.0%	7.4%	34.3%	56.7%
2026-10-17T14:39:15+00:00	8.1%	18.5%	7.4%	34.3%	56.8%
2026-10-17T15:24:28+00:00	8.1%	14.5%	7.4%	34.3%	56.8%
2026-10-17T16:10:30+00:00	8.1%	14.5%	7.4%	34.3%	56.8%
2026-10-17T16:55:37+00:00	8.1%	14.5%	7.0%	34.3%	56.8%
2026-10-17T17:40:46+00:00	8.1%	14.5%	7.0%	34.3%	56.8%
2026-10-17T18:25:54+00:00	8.1%	14.5%	7.0%	34.3%	56.8%
2026-10-17T19:11:02+00:00	8.1%	14.5%	7.0%	34.3%	56.8%
2026-10-17T19:56:09+00:00	9.3%	14.5%	7.0%	36.3%	59.0%
2026-10-17T20:41:25+00:00	9.3%	14.5%	7.0%	36.3%	59.0%
2026-10-17T21:26:36+00:00	9.3%	14.5%	7.0%	36.3%	59.0%
2026-10-17T22:11:51+00:00	9.3%	14.5%	7.0%	36.3%	59.0%
2026-10-17T22:56:59+00:00	9.3%	14.5%	7.0%	36.3%	59.0%
2026-10-17T23:42:10+00:00	9.3%	14.6%	7.0%	36.3%	59.0%
2026-10-18T00:27:21+00:00	9.3%	14.6%	7.0%	36.3%	59.0%
2026-10-18T01:12:50+00:00	9.3%	14.6%	7.0%	36.3%	59.0%
2026-10-18T01:58:11+00:00	8.9%	14.6%	7.0%	36.3%	59.0%
2026-10-18T02:43:19+00:00	8.9%	14.6%	7.0%	36.3%	59.0%
2026-10-18T03:28:27+00:00	8.9%	14.6%	7.0%	36.3%	59.0%
2026-10-18T04:13:43+00:00	8.9%	14.6%	7.0%	36.3%	59.0%
2026-10-18T05:00:11+00:00	8.9%	14.6%	5.7%	36.3%	59.0%
2026-10-18T05:45:18+00:00	8.9%	14.6%	5.7%	36.3%	59.0%
2026-10-18T06:30:25+00:00	8.9%	14.6%	5.7%	36.3%	59.0%
2026-10-18T07:15:31+00:00	8.9%	14.6%	5.7%	36.3%	59.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	59%	58.7°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.3481
NWS forecast	41%	60.0°F	2.1°F	2026-10-18 03:00	0.1665
IFS HRES	36%	60.8°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.1318
National Blend	25%	61.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-18 00:00	0.0635
IFS Ensemble	15%	62.5°F	2.9°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.0213
AIFS Single	9%	64.8°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	0.0079
WeatherNext 2	6%	64.1°F	2.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	0.0032

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≤ 59°F · KRIC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KRIC-20261018-TMAX-LE59
Opened Oct 14 · 10:32 UTC

Original listing: Richmond stays cold-for-here: high ≤ 59°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗