KRIC / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Richmond, VAHigh ≥ 60°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 17 · 14:39 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

>99%

97%

92%

89%

Consensus

97%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 94.2¢Risks 47.10u

ICONNO 5.8¢Risks 2.90u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +2.90u · ICON −2.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	31.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	61.5%	—	—	—	—	54.2%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	78.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	94.5%	—	—	—	—	90.4%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	95.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	88.5%	—	—	—	—	84.5%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	86.0%	—	—	—	—	89.0%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	25.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	87.4%	—	—	—	—	79.2%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	93.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	98.1%	—	—	—	—	79.2%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	96.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	99.6%	—	—	—	—	83.2%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	97.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	98.2%	—	—	—	—	76.8%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	67.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	99.8%	—	—	—	—	80.0%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	28.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	61.9%	—	—	—	—	78.0%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	41.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	22.5%	—	—	—	—	89.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	74.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	67.0%	—	—	—	—	88.9%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	50.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	93.6%	—	5.9%	—	—	90.5%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	91.8%	—	19.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	82.8%	—	—	—	—	85.4%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	85.5%	—	51.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	97.3%	—	71.6%	—	—	92.9%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	95.0%	—	93.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	82.0%	23.8%	95.0%	—	—	94.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	90.8%	—	95.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	91.0%	77.6%	95.6%	9.0%	—	91.8%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	95.9%	—	94.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	95.9%	97.4%	94.3%	93.6%	—	91.8%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	93.1%	—	98.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	94.8%	98.9%	98.7%	86.2%	—	91.6%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	89.1%	—	98.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	88.9%	97.8%	98.8%	62.5%	—	81.6%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	89.8%	9.9%	98.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	87.1%	79.9%	98.2%	10.4%	—	72.1%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	91.2%	80.5%	97.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	60.4%	79.2%	95.9%	1.7%	—	78.6%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	95.2%	90.4%	98.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	67.8%	88.1%	92.1%	85.1%	—	72.6%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	88.2%	82.9%	79.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	67.8%	88.4%	65.2%	81.7%	—	42.3%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	74.3%	89.5%	1.1%	—	—	48.0%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	86.6%	78.1%	36.9%	83.7%	—	81.7%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	93.2%	93.2%	82.4%	—	—	86.2%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	92.3%	89.6%	84.5%	78.7%	0.1%	86.9%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	96.5%	86.5%	90.3%	0.0%	—	91.3%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	92.8%	82.5%	88.4%	88.4%	81.0%	90.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	93.0%	93.4%	86.8%	84.8%	—	90.3%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	94.8%	92.5%	93.3%	85.6%	0.0%	91.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	93.6%	89.1%	94.0%	84.2%	—	86.5%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	96.0%	89.3%	94.7%	81.8%	84.3%	89.9%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	97.0%	96.0%	95.3%	85.3%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	98.4%	95.6%	96.5%	88.5%	95.3%	93.2%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	98.2%	95.2%	97.1%	86.4%	—	90.8%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	98.9%	96.9%	98.2%	88.3%	95.9%	92.3%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	0.9%	99.4%	99.1%	96.6%	—	97.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	>99%	67.8°F	3.1°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.0000
AIFS Single	>99%	69.4°F	4.1°F	2026-10-17 06:00	0.0000
IFS Ensemble	97%	65.6°F	3.2°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.0008
IFS HRES	92%	65.3°F	4.1°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.0062
ICON	89%	63.8°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.0125
National Blend	79%	63.0°F	4.3°F	2026-10-17 06:00	0.0441
NWS forecast	56%	60.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-17 03:00	0.1954

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 60°F · KRIC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KRIC-20261019-TMAX-GE60
Opened Oct 17 · 04:41 UTC

Original listing: Richmond high ≥ 60°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗