KRIC / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Richmond, VAHigh ≥ 60°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 17 · 14:39 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

>99%

97%

92%

89%

Consensus

97%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 94.2¢Risks 47.10u

ICONNO 5.8¢Risks 2.90u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +2.90u · ICON −2.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T14:39:15+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-17T04:41:02+00:00	98.4%	64.7%	99.6%	87.3%	82.4%
2026-10-17T05:28:21+00:00	98.4%	64.7%	99.6%	87.3%	82.4%
2026-10-17T06:13:34+00:00	98.4%	64.7%	99.6%	87.3%	82.4%
2026-10-17T06:58:44+00:00	98.4%	64.7%	99.6%	87.3%	82.4%
2026-10-17T07:44:02+00:00	98.5%	64.7%	99.6%	92.1%	88.8%
2026-10-17T08:30:37+00:00	98.5%	64.7%	99.6%	92.1%	88.8%
2026-10-17T09:16:28+00:00	98.5%	64.7%	99.6%	92.1%	88.8%
2026-10-17T10:01:48+00:00	98.5%	64.7%	99.6%	92.1%	88.8%
2026-10-17T10:46:53+00:00	98.5%	64.7%	99.6%	92.1%	88.8%
2026-10-17T11:32:00+00:00	98.5%	97.4%	99.6%	92.1%	88.8%
2026-10-17T12:17:26+00:00	98.5%	97.4%	99.6%	92.1%	88.8%
2026-10-17T13:02:32+00:00	98.5%	97.4%	99.6%	92.1%	88.8%
2026-10-17T13:47:48+00:00	99.3%	97.4%	99.6%	92.1%	88.8%
2026-10-17T14:39:15+00:00	99.3%	97.2%	99.6%	92.1%	88.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	>99%	67.8°F	3.1°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.0000
AIFS Single	>99%	69.4°F	4.1°F	2026-10-17 06:00	0.0000
IFS Ensemble	97%	65.6°F	3.2°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.0008
IFS HRES	92%	65.3°F	4.1°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.0062
ICON	89%	63.8°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.0125
National Blend	79%	63.0°F	4.3°F	2026-10-17 06:00	0.0441
NWS forecast	56%	60.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-17 03:00	0.1954

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 60°F · KRIC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KRIC-20261019-TMAX-GE60
Opened Oct 17 · 04:41 UTC

Original listing: Richmond high ≥ 60°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗