KRIC / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Richmond, VAHigh ≥ 62°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 17 · 03:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

98%

95%

76%

67%

49%

Consensus

84%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 73.6¢Risks 73.65u

EPSNO 26.4¢Risks 26.35u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +26.35u · EPS −26.35u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	51.1%	—	—	—	—	43.6%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	69.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	90.9%	—	—	—	—	85.1%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	92.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	82.5%	—	—	—	—	77.2%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	79.2%	—	—	—	—	83.2%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	17.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	81.1%	—	—	—	—	70.8%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	90.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	96.4%	—	—	—	—	70.8%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	93.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	99.2%	—	—	—	—	75.6%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	95.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	96.6%	—	—	—	—	68.0%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	57.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	99.5%	—	—	—	—	71.7%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	19.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	51.1%	—	—	—	—	69.0%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	30.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	14.9%	—	—	—	—	82.6%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	64.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	55.9%	—	—	—	—	82.3%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	38.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	88.8%	—	3.1%	—	—	84.2%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	86.1%	—	12.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	73.6%	—	—	—	—	77.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	77.0%	—	39.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	94.5%	—	59.7%	—	—	87.4%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	90.6%	—	88.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	71.8%	14.7%	90.4%	—	—	88.9%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	83.8%	—	91.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	83.8%	65.7%	91.3%	4.5%	—	85.1%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	91.7%	—	89.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	91.6%	94.3%	88.7%	87.6%	—	84.8%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	86.6%	—	97.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	89.3%	97.2%	96.7%	76.1%	—	84.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	80.0%	—	97.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	79.4%	94.7%	96.9%	46.8%	—	69.2%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	80.5%	4.5%	96.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	76.2%	66.2%	95.3%	4.7%	—	56.6%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	82.2%	66.6%	94.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	43.0%	64.6%	90.3%	0.5%	—	63.7%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	88.8%	80.4%	95.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	50.0%	76.3%	82.8%	71.8%	—	55.5%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	76.2%	68.2%	63.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	49.0%	76.0%	46.1%	66.1%	—	24.7%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	56.0%	77.4%	0.3%	—	—	29.1%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	72.4%	60.2%	19.7%	67.9%	—	65.1%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	83.1%	83.1%	65.5%	—	—	71.2%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	81.0%	76.2%	67.9%	59.7%	0.0%	71.8%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	89.3%	70.4%	76.9%	0.0%	—	78.6%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	81.0%	63.7%	73.0%	73.0%	61.5%	75.8%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	80.9%	81.7%	69.6%	66.4%	—	75.6%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	84.1%	79.2%	80.9%	66.9%	0.0%	76.4%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	80.9%	72.0%	81.8%	63.9%	—	67.5%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	85.9%	71.6%	82.7%	59.3%	63.2%	72.7%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	88.2%	85.3%	83.6%	63.7%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	92.2%	83.7%	86.2%	68.2%	82.8%	77.8%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	90.8%	81.9%	87.2%	63.3%	—	71.5%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	93.4%	85.8%	90.4%	65.4%	82.9%	73.7%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	95.1%	93.7%	84.0%	—	87.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	98%	68.5°F	3.4°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.0004
AIFS Single	95%	68.7°F	4.3°F	2026-10-16 18:00	0.0021
IFS HRES	76%	64.6°F	4.5°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.0595
ICON	67%	63.2°F	4.0°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.1116
National Blend	59%	63.0°F	6.7°F	2026-10-16 06:00	0.1689
NWS forecast	55%	62.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-16 14:00	0.2016
IFS Ensemble	49%	61.4°F	5.0°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.2581

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 62°F · KRIC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KRIC-20261019-TMAX-GE62
Opened Oct 16 · 15:05 UTC

Original listing: Richmond high ≥ 62°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗