KRIC / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Richmond, VAHigh ≥ 62°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 17 · 03:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

98%

95%

76%

67%

49%

Consensus

84%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 73.6¢Risks 73.65u

EPSNO 26.4¢Risks 26.35u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +26.35u · EPS −26.35u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T03:55:36+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-16T15:05:11+00:00	84.8%	49.2%	92.7%	19.8%	81.8%
2026-10-16T15:50:53+00:00	84.8%	49.2%	92.7%	19.8%	81.8%
2026-10-16T16:36:07+00:00	84.8%	49.2%	92.7%	19.8%	81.8%
2026-10-16T17:21:17+00:00	84.8%	49.2%	98.0%	19.8%	81.8%
2026-10-16T18:06:35+00:00	84.8%	49.2%	98.0%	19.8%	81.8%
2026-10-16T18:51:41+00:00	84.8%	49.2%	98.0%	19.8%	81.8%
2026-10-16T19:36:53+00:00	92.3%	49.2%	98.0%	19.8%	66.6%
2026-10-16T20:22:21+00:00	92.3%	49.2%	98.0%	19.8%	66.6%
2026-10-16T21:07:44+00:00	92.3%	49.2%	98.0%	19.8%	66.6%
2026-10-16T21:52:51+00:00	92.3%	49.2%	98.0%	19.8%	66.6%
2026-10-16T22:37:58+00:00	92.3%	49.2%	98.0%	75.6%	66.6%
2026-10-16T23:23:19+00:00	92.3%	49.2%	98.1%	75.6%	66.6%
2026-10-17T00:08:47+00:00	92.3%	49.2%	98.1%	75.6%	66.6%
2026-10-17T00:54:55+00:00	92.3%	49.2%	98.1%	75.6%	66.6%
2026-10-17T01:40:04+00:00	95.4%	49.2%	98.1%	75.6%	66.6%
2026-10-17T02:25:17+00:00	95.4%	49.2%	98.1%	75.6%	66.6%
2026-10-17T03:10:27+00:00	95.4%	49.2%	98.1%	75.6%	66.6%
2026-10-17T03:55:36+00:00	95.4%	49.2%	98.1%	75.6%	66.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	98%	68.5°F	3.4°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.0004
AIFS Single	95%	68.7°F	4.3°F	2026-10-16 18:00	0.0021
IFS HRES	76%	64.6°F	4.5°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.0595
ICON	67%	63.2°F	4.0°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.1116
National Blend	59%	63.0°F	6.7°F	2026-10-16 06:00	0.1689
NWS forecast	55%	62.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-16 14:00	0.2016
IFS Ensemble	49%	61.4°F	5.0°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.2581

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 62°F · KRIC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KRIC-20261019-TMAX-GE62
Opened Oct 16 · 15:05 UTC

Original listing: Richmond high ≥ 62°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗