KRIC / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Richmond, VAHigh ≥ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST36%Oct 16 · 14:19 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

60%

54%

46%

21%

Consensus

36%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 32.2¢Risks 32.25u

HRESNO 67.8¢Risks 67.75u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +67.75u · HRES −67.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	—	—	—	24.4%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	48.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	78.8%	—	—	—	—	69.4%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	81.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	65.5%	—	—	—	—	58.5%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	16.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	61.0%	—	—	—	—	66.5%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	7.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	63.6%	—	—	—	—	50.5%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	77.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	89.7%	—	—	—	—	50.5%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	82.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	97.0%	—	—	—	—	56.4%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	87.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	90.2%	—	—	—	—	47.3%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	97.9%	—	—	—	—	51.6%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	8.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	30.0%	—	—	—	—	47.8%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	14.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	5.4%	—	—	—	—	64.4%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	42.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	—	—	63.2%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	72.9%	—	0.7%	—	—	65.4%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	67.9%	—	3.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	54.4%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	53.8%	—	18.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	82.8%	—	34.2%	—	—	68.8%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	74.2%	—	70.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	46.0%	4.2%	73.5%	—	—	70.6%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	61.6%	—	75.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	61.1%	38.2%	74.3%	0.8%	—	63.1%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	74.7%	—	71.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	74.0%	80.1%	68.3%	66.3%	—	61.6%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	63.9%	—	87.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	68.4%	87.5%	85.8%	47.7%	—	59.1%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	52.3%	—	86.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	50.8%	79.4%	85.5%	18.9%	—	38.2%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	51.6%	0.6%	85.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	45.0%	33.8%	79.9%	0.6%	—	25.1%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	52.6%	33.4%	77.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	14.6%	30.7%	66.2%	0.0%	—	29.9%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	62.4%	48.2%	77.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	17.8%	41.8%	50.9%	36.4%	—	21.6%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	40.6%	31.8%	26.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	15.9%	39.4%	14.2%	28.7%	—	4.9%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	19.7%	40.1%	0.0%	—	—	6.0%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	33.0%	21.9%	3.0%	28.5%	—	25.9%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	45.8%	45.8%	25.3%	—	—	30.7%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	41.3%	35.1%	26.4%	19.8%	0.0%	30.1%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	54.5%	27.6%	34.6%	0.0%	—	36.7%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	38.5%	20.7%	28.9%	28.9%	19.1%	32.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	37.0%	38.1%	24.4%	21.6%	—	30.4%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	40.1%	33.1%	35.4%	20.8%	0.0%	29.8%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	33.7%	23.8%	34.9%	17.4%	—	20.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	39.4%	22.0%	34.3%	13.4%	15.7%	23.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	41.7%	36.3%	33.8%	14.7%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	48.5%	31.8%	35.8%	16.3%	30.5%	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	60%	66.4°F	3.4°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	66.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-16 02:00	Pending
AIFS Single	54%	65.9°F	4.3°F	2026-10-16 06:00	Pending
ICON	46%	65.1°F	4.0°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
National Blend	35%	63.0°F	6.7°F	2026-10-16 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	21%	61.5°F	4.9°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	4%	57.7°F	4.5°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KRIC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KRIC-20261019-TMAX-GE66
Opened Oct 12 · 07:47 UTC

Original listing: Richmond high ≥ 66°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗