KRIC / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Richmond, VAHigh ≥ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST36%Oct 16 · 14:19 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

60%

54%

46%

21%

Consensus

36%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 32.2¢Risks 32.25u

HRESNO 67.8¢Risks 67.75u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +67.75u · HRES −67.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-16T14:19:40+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-12T07:47:48+00:00	71.0%	57.0%	89.6%	85.5%	28.2%
2026-10-12T08:34:23+00:00	71.0%	57.0%	89.6%	85.5%	28.2%
2026-10-12T09:19:36+00:00	71.0%	57.0%	89.6%	85.5%	28.2%
2026-10-12T10:04:57+00:00	71.0%	57.0%	89.6%	85.5%	28.2%
2026-10-12T10:50:07+00:00	71.0%	57.0%	89.6%	85.5%	28.2%
2026-10-15T15:33:45+00:00	85.7%	50.0%	74.1%	32.3%	45.1%
2026-10-15T16:19:53+00:00	85.7%	50.0%	74.1%	32.3%	45.1%
2026-10-15T17:05:20+00:00	85.7%	50.0%	91.5%	32.3%	45.1%
2026-10-15T17:50:35+00:00	85.7%	50.0%	91.5%	32.3%	45.1%
2026-10-15T18:35:57+00:00	85.7%	50.0%	91.5%	32.3%	45.1%
2026-10-15T19:21:06+00:00	85.7%	50.0%	91.5%	32.3%	45.1%
2026-10-15T20:06:13+00:00	49.1%	50.0%	91.5%	28.8%	56.5%
2026-10-15T20:51:27+00:00	49.1%	50.0%	91.5%	28.8%	56.5%
2026-10-15T21:36:41+00:00	49.1%	50.0%	91.5%	28.8%	56.5%
2026-10-15T22:21:48+00:00	49.1%	50.0%	91.5%	28.8%	56.5%
2026-10-15T23:06:58+00:00	49.1%	50.0%	74.9%	28.8%	56.5%
2026-10-15T23:52:12+00:00	49.1%	50.0%	74.9%	28.8%	56.5%
2026-10-16T00:37:21+00:00	49.1%	50.0%	74.9%	28.8%	56.5%
2026-10-16T01:22:41+00:00	71.4%	50.0%	74.9%	28.8%	56.5%
2026-10-16T02:08:03+00:00	71.4%	50.0%	74.9%	28.8%	56.5%
2026-10-16T02:53:27+00:00	71.4%	50.0%	74.9%	28.8%	56.5%
2026-10-16T03:38:38+00:00	71.4%	50.0%	74.9%	28.8%	56.5%
2026-10-16T04:23:54+00:00	71.4%	50.0%	74.9%	28.8%	56.5%
2026-10-16T05:10:23+00:00	71.4%	50.0%	75.8%	28.8%	56.5%
2026-10-16T05:55:49+00:00	71.4%	50.0%	75.8%	28.8%	56.5%
2026-10-16T06:41:01+00:00	71.4%	50.0%	75.8%	28.8%	56.5%
2026-10-16T07:26:12+00:00	47.2%	50.0%	75.8%	28.8%	46.0%
2026-10-16T08:11:22+00:00	47.2%	50.0%	75.8%	28.8%	46.0%
2026-10-16T08:56:32+00:00	47.2%	50.0%	75.8%	28.8%	46.0%
2026-10-16T09:41:40+00:00	47.2%	50.0%	75.8%	28.8%	46.0%
2026-10-16T10:26:47+00:00	47.2%	50.0%	75.8%	28.8%	46.0%
2026-10-16T11:12:06+00:00	47.2%	20.8%	60.5%	28.8%	46.0%
2026-10-16T11:57:36+00:00	47.2%	20.8%	60.5%	28.8%	46.0%
2026-10-16T12:42:47+00:00	47.2%	20.8%	60.5%	28.8%	46.0%
2026-10-16T13:28:03+00:00	53.7%	20.8%	60.5%	4.0%	46.0%
2026-10-16T14:19:40+00:00	53.7%	20.9%	60.5%	4.0%	46.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	60%	66.4°F	3.4°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	66.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-16 02:00	Pending
AIFS Single	54%	65.9°F	4.3°F	2026-10-16 06:00	Pending
ICON	46%	65.1°F	4.0°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
National Blend	35%	63.0°F	6.7°F	2026-10-16 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	21%	61.5°F	4.9°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	4%	57.7°F	4.5°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KRIC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KRIC-20261019-TMAX-GE66
Opened Oct 12 · 07:47 UTC

Original listing: Richmond high ≥ 66°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗