WEATHER PROPSBOARDMATCHUPSMODELSSTATIONSREPLAYTHE LEAGUE
← All matchups
KRIC / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Richmond, VAHigh ≥ 80°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 13 · 10:19 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
ICON
20%
AIFS
9%
WN2
9%
HRES
8%
EPS
2%
Consensus
3%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
ICONYES 10.8¢Risks 5.40u
VS
EPSNO 89.2¢Risks 44.60u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +44.60u · EPS −44.60u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.9% · 2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.9% · 2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 14.3% · 2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 16.9% · 2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 7.1% · 2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.6% · 2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 6.4% · 2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 13.1% · 2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 27.4% · 2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 17.9% · 2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 50.5% · 2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 23.6% · 2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 28.3% · 2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.3% · 2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 56.4% · 2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.7% · 2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.3% · 2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.6% · 2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 6.4% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.4% · 2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.4% · 2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.6% · 2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 9.0% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.7% · 2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.7% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.7% · 2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.4% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.2% · 2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.7% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.2% · 2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.4% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.4% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.3% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.3% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 4.2% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 6.3% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 2.4% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.1% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.1% · 2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.4% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 3.8% · 2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 4.0% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 4.2% · 2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 3.5% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.5% · 2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.8% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 6.7% · 2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 5.4% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 5.0% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 4.1% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 3.4% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.8% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.2% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.4% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.8% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.1% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 1.6% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.3% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.5% · 2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 8.7% · 2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 4.9% · 2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 7.5% · 2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 3.2% · 2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 3.2% · 2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 4.4% · 2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.7% · 2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 3.3% · 2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.4% · 2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 5.2% · 2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 4.3% · 2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 4.2% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.8% · 2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 3.6% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 3.4% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.7% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.1% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.7% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.1% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:0010-04 06:0010-12 00:0010-19 18:00
AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS*
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:000.1%—————
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:000.9%————0.5%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:002.9%—————
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:0014.3%————8.7%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:0016.9%—————
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:007.1%————4.9%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:000.2%—————
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:005.6%————7.5%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:000.1%—————
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:006.4%————3.2%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:0013.1%—————
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:0027.4%————3.2%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:0017.9%—————
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:0050.5%————4.4%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:0023.6%—————
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:0028.3%————2.7%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:001.3%—————
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:0056.4%————3.3%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:000.1%—————
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:000.7%————2.4%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:000.1%—————
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:000.0%————5.2%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:001.3%—————
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:000.6%————4.3%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:000.1%—————
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:006.4%—0.0%——4.2%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:004.4%—0.0%———
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:001.4%————1.8%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:001.6%—0.1%———
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:009.0%—0.4%——3.6%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:004.7%—3.8%———
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:000.7%0.0%4.0%——3.4%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:001.7%—4.2%———
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:001.4%0.3%3.5%0.0%—1.7%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:003.2%—2.5%———
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:002.7%4.2%1.8%1.6%—1.1%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:001.2%—6.7%———
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:001.4%6.3%5.4%0.3%—0.7%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:000.4%—5.0%———
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:000.3%2.4%4.1%0.0%—0.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:000.2%0.0%3.4%———
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:000.1%0.0%1.8%0.0%—0.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:000.2%0.0%1.2%———
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.4%0.0%—0.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:000.2%0.1%0.8%———
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.1%0.0%—0.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%———
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%—0.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%——0.0%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%—0.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%——0.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%—0.0%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%—0.0%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%—0.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%——
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%—0.0%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%—0.0%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
ICON20%73.6°F7.0°F2026-10-13 00:000.0404
AIFS Single9%72.4°F5.3°F2026-10-13 00:000.0083
WeatherNext 29%72.7°F5.0°F2026-10-12 18:000.0074
IFS HRES8%70.2°F6.6°F2026-10-13 00:000.0061
NWS forecast4%69.0°F5.8°F2026-10-13 03:000.0013
National Blend2%70.0°F4.4°F2026-10-13 00:000.0003
IFS Ensemble2%69.1°F4.8°F2026-10-12 00:000.0002

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KRIC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KRIC-20261019-TMAX-GE80
Opened Oct 12 · 13:51 UTC

Original listing: Richmond runs hot-for-here: 80°F+ · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗