KRIC / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Richmond, VAHigh ≤ 59°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 18 · 04:13 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

21%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 10.4¢Risks 10.45u

WN2NO 89.5¢Risks 89.55u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +89.55u · WN2 −89.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	68.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	38.5%	—	—	—	—	45.8%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	5.5%	—	—	—	—	9.6%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	4.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	11.5%	—	—	—	—	15.6%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	56.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	—	—	—	11.0%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	74.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	12.6%	—	—	—	—	20.8%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	6.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	—	—	—	20.8%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	4.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	16.9%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	2.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	—	23.2%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	32.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	20.0%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	72.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	38.1%	—	—	—	—	22.0%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	58.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	77.5%	—	—	—	—	11.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	25.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	—	—	11.1%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	49.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	6.4%	—	94.1%	—	—	9.5%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	8.2%	—	80.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	17.2%	—	—	—	—	14.6%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	14.5%	—	48.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	28.4%	—	—	7.1%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	5.0%	—	6.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	18.0%	76.2%	5.0%	—	—	5.9%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	9.2%	—	4.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	9.0%	22.4%	4.4%	91.0%	—	8.2%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	4.1%	—	5.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	4.1%	2.6%	5.7%	6.4%	—	8.2%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	1.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	5.2%	1.1%	1.3%	13.8%	—	8.4%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	10.9%	—	1.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	11.1%	2.2%	1.2%	37.5%	—	18.4%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	10.2%	90.1%	1.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	12.9%	20.1%	1.8%	89.5%	—	27.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	8.8%	19.6%	2.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	39.6%	20.8%	4.1%	98.3%	—	21.4%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	4.8%	9.6%	1.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	32.2%	11.9%	7.9%	14.9%	—	27.4%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	11.8%	17.1%	21.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	32.1%	11.6%	34.8%	18.3%	—	57.7%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	25.7%	10.5%	98.9%	—	—	52.0%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	13.4%	21.9%	63.1%	16.3%	—	18.3%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	6.8%	6.8%	17.6%	—	—	13.8%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	7.7%	10.4%	15.5%	21.3%	99.9%	13.1%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	3.5%	13.5%	9.7%	100.0%	—	8.7%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	7.2%	17.5%	11.6%	11.6%	19.1%	10.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	7.0%	6.6%	13.2%	15.2%	—	9.7%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	5.2%	7.5%	6.7%	14.4%	100.0%	8.9%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	6.4%	10.9%	6.0%	15.8%	—	13.5%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	4.0%	10.7%	5.3%	18.2%	15.7%	10.1%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	3.0%	4.0%	4.7%	14.7%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	1.6%	4.4%	3.5%	11.5%	4.7%	6.8%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	1.8%	4.8%	2.9%	13.6%	—	9.2%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	1.1%	3.1%	1.8%	11.7%	4.1%	7.7%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	99.1%	0.6%	0.9%	3.4%	—	2.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	21%	62.4°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.0424
National Blend	17%	63.0°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 06:00	0.0292
NWS forecast	7%	64.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-18 03:00	0.0053
IFS HRES	6%	65.7°F	4.1°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.0042
IFS Ensemble	2%	66.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.0004
AIFS Single	2%	68.0°F	4.1°F	2026-10-17 18:00	0.0003
WeatherNext 2	<1%	67.9°F	3.1°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.0000

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≤ 59°F · KRIC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KRIC-20261019-TMAX-LE59
Opened Oct 15 · 07:49 UTC

Original listing: Richmond stays cold-for-here: high ≤ 59°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗