KRIC / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Richmond, VAHigh ≤ 59°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 18 · 04:13 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

21%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 10.4¢Risks 10.45u

WN2NO 89.5¢Risks 89.55u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +89.55u · WN2 −89.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T04:13:43+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-15T07:49:04+00:00	12.9%	6.8%	1.0%	23.0%	13.2%
2026-10-15T08:35:49+00:00	12.9%	6.8%	1.0%	23.0%	13.2%
2026-10-15T09:21:36+00:00	12.9%	6.8%	1.0%	23.0%	13.2%
2026-10-15T10:07:21+00:00	12.9%	6.8%	1.0%	23.0%	13.2%
2026-10-15T10:52:49+00:00	12.9%	6.8%	1.0%	23.0%	13.2%
2026-10-15T11:39:07+00:00	12.9%	6.8%	1.2%	23.0%	13.2%
2026-10-15T12:24:49+00:00	12.9%	13.8%	1.2%	23.0%	13.2%
2026-10-15T13:10:08+00:00	12.9%	13.8%	1.2%	23.0%	13.2%
2026-10-15T13:55:47+00:00	0.9%	14.1%	1.2%	23.0%	13.3%
2026-10-15T14:48:23+00:00	0.9%	14.1%	1.2%	23.0%	13.3%
2026-10-15T15:33:45+00:00	0.9%	12.1%	1.2%	23.0%	13.3%
2026-10-15T16:19:53+00:00	0.9%	12.1%	1.2%	23.0%	13.3%
2026-10-15T17:05:20+00:00	0.9%	12.1%	0.1%	23.0%	13.3%
2026-10-15T17:50:35+00:00	0.9%	12.1%	0.1%	23.0%	13.3%
2026-10-15T18:35:57+00:00	0.9%	12.1%	0.1%	23.0%	13.3%
2026-10-15T19:21:06+00:00	0.9%	12.1%	0.1%	23.0%	13.3%
2026-10-15T20:06:13+00:00	9.9%	12.1%	0.1%	26.1%	8.1%
2026-10-15T20:51:27+00:00	9.9%	12.1%	0.1%	26.1%	8.1%
2026-10-15T21:36:41+00:00	9.9%	12.1%	0.1%	26.1%	8.1%
2026-10-15T22:21:48+00:00	9.9%	12.1%	0.1%	26.1%	8.1%
2026-10-15T23:06:58+00:00	9.9%	12.1%	1.1%	26.1%	8.1%
2026-10-15T23:52:12+00:00	9.9%	12.1%	1.1%	26.1%	8.1%
2026-10-16T00:37:21+00:00	9.9%	12.1%	1.1%	26.1%	8.1%
2026-10-16T01:22:41+00:00	3.0%	12.1%	1.1%	26.1%	8.1%
2026-10-16T02:08:03+00:00	3.0%	12.1%	1.1%	26.1%	8.1%
2026-10-16T02:53:27+00:00	3.0%	12.1%	1.1%	26.1%	8.1%
2026-10-16T03:38:38+00:00	3.0%	12.1%	1.1%	26.1%	8.1%
2026-10-16T04:23:54+00:00	3.0%	12.1%	1.1%	26.1%	8.1%
2026-10-16T05:10:23+00:00	3.0%	12.1%	1.0%	26.1%	8.1%
2026-10-16T05:55:49+00:00	3.0%	12.1%	1.0%	26.1%	8.1%
2026-10-16T06:41:01+00:00	3.0%	12.1%	1.0%	26.1%	8.1%
2026-10-16T07:26:12+00:00	9.1%	12.1%	1.0%	26.1%	7.9%
2026-10-16T08:11:22+00:00	9.1%	12.1%	1.0%	26.1%	7.9%
2026-10-16T08:56:32+00:00	9.1%	12.1%	1.0%	26.1%	7.9%
2026-10-16T09:41:40+00:00	9.1%	12.1%	1.0%	26.1%	7.9%
2026-10-16T10:26:47+00:00	9.1%	12.1%	1.0%	26.1%	7.9%
2026-10-16T11:12:06+00:00	9.1%	34.2%	2.0%	26.1%	7.9%
2026-10-16T11:57:36+00:00	9.1%	34.2%	2.0%	26.1%	7.9%
2026-10-16T12:42:47+00:00	9.1%	34.2%	2.0%	26.1%	7.9%
2026-10-16T13:28:03+00:00	6.7%	34.2%	2.0%	65.6%	7.9%
2026-10-16T14:19:40+00:00	6.7%	34.3%	2.0%	65.6%	7.9%
2026-10-16T15:05:12+00:00	6.7%	35.3%	2.0%	65.6%	7.9%
2026-10-16T15:50:53+00:00	6.7%	35.3%	2.0%	65.6%	7.9%
2026-10-16T16:36:07+00:00	6.7%	35.3%	2.0%	65.6%	7.9%
2026-10-16T17:21:17+00:00	6.7%	35.3%	0.4%	65.6%	7.9%
2026-10-16T18:06:35+00:00	6.7%	35.3%	0.4%	65.6%	7.9%
2026-10-16T18:51:41+00:00	6.7%	35.3%	0.4%	65.6%	7.9%
2026-10-16T19:36:53+00:00	2.9%	35.3%	0.4%	65.6%	17.6%
2026-10-16T20:22:21+00:00	2.9%	35.3%	0.4%	65.6%	17.6%
2026-10-16T21:07:44+00:00	2.9%	35.3%	0.4%	65.6%	17.6%
2026-10-16T21:52:51+00:00	2.9%	35.3%	0.4%	65.6%	17.6%
2026-10-16T22:37:58+00:00	2.9%	35.3%	0.4%	12.7%	17.6%
2026-10-16T23:23:19+00:00	2.9%	35.3%	0.4%	12.7%	17.6%
2026-10-17T00:08:47+00:00	2.9%	35.3%	0.4%	12.7%	17.6%
2026-10-17T00:54:55+00:00	2.9%	35.3%	0.4%	12.7%	17.6%
2026-10-17T01:40:04+00:00	1.6%	35.3%	0.4%	12.7%	17.6%
2026-10-17T02:25:17+00:00	1.6%	35.3%	0.4%	12.7%	17.6%
2026-10-17T03:10:27+00:00	1.6%	35.3%	0.4%	12.7%	17.6%
2026-10-17T03:55:36+00:00	1.6%	35.3%	0.4%	12.7%	17.6%
2026-10-17T04:41:04+00:00	1.6%	35.3%	0.4%	12.7%	17.6%
2026-10-17T05:28:21+00:00	1.6%	35.3%	0.4%	12.7%	17.6%
2026-10-17T06:13:34+00:00	1.6%	35.3%	0.4%	12.7%	17.6%
2026-10-17T06:58:44+00:00	1.6%	35.3%	0.4%	12.7%	17.6%
2026-10-17T07:44:02+00:00	1.5%	35.3%	0.4%	7.9%	11.2%
2026-10-17T08:30:37+00:00	1.5%	35.3%	0.4%	7.9%	11.2%
2026-10-17T09:16:28+00:00	1.5%	35.3%	0.4%	7.9%	11.2%
2026-10-17T10:01:48+00:00	1.5%	35.3%	0.4%	7.9%	11.2%
2026-10-17T10:46:53+00:00	1.5%	35.3%	0.4%	7.9%	11.2%
2026-10-17T11:32:00+00:00	1.5%	2.6%	0.4%	7.9%	11.2%
2026-10-17T12:17:26+00:00	1.5%	2.6%	0.4%	7.9%	11.2%
2026-10-17T13:02:32+00:00	1.5%	2.6%	0.4%	7.9%	11.2%
2026-10-17T13:47:48+00:00	0.7%	2.6%	0.4%	7.9%	11.2%
2026-10-17T14:39:15+00:00	0.7%	2.8%	0.4%	7.9%	11.2%
2026-10-17T15:24:28+00:00	0.7%	1.9%	0.4%	7.9%	11.2%
2026-10-17T16:10:30+00:00	0.7%	1.9%	0.4%	7.9%	11.2%
2026-10-17T19:56:09+00:00	1.7%	1.9%	0.3%	6.5%	20.6%
2026-10-17T20:41:25+00:00	1.7%	1.9%	0.3%	6.5%	20.6%
2026-10-17T21:26:36+00:00	1.7%	1.9%	0.3%	6.5%	20.6%
2026-10-17T22:11:52+00:00	1.7%	1.9%	0.3%	6.5%	20.6%
2026-10-17T22:56:59+00:00	1.7%	1.9%	0.3%	6.5%	20.6%
2026-10-17T23:42:10+00:00	1.7%	1.9%	0.3%	6.5%	20.6%
2026-10-18T00:27:21+00:00	1.7%	1.9%	0.3%	6.5%	20.6%
2026-10-18T01:12:50+00:00	1.7%	1.9%	0.3%	6.5%	20.6%
2026-10-18T01:58:11+00:00	1.8%	1.9%	0.3%	6.5%	20.6%
2026-10-18T02:43:19+00:00	1.8%	1.9%	0.3%	6.5%	20.6%
2026-10-18T03:28:27+00:00	1.8%	1.9%	0.3%	6.5%	20.6%
2026-10-18T04:13:43+00:00	1.8%	1.9%	0.3%	6.5%	20.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	21%	62.4°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.0424
National Blend	17%	63.0°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 06:00	0.0292
NWS forecast	7%	64.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-18 03:00	0.0053
IFS HRES	6%	65.7°F	4.1°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.0042
IFS Ensemble	2%	66.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.0004
AIFS Single	2%	68.0°F	4.1°F	2026-10-17 18:00	0.0003
WeatherNext 2	<1%	67.9°F	3.1°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.0000

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≤ 59°F · KRIC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KRIC-20261019-TMAX-LE59
Opened Oct 15 · 07:49 UTC

Original listing: Richmond stays cold-for-here: high ≤ 59°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗