KRIC / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Richmond, VAHigh ≥ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST85%Oct 19 · 14:27 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

99%

95%

69%

66%

62%

Consensus

85%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 80.5¢Risks 80.50u

ICONNO 19.5¢Risks 19.50u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +19.50u · ICON −19.50u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	62.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	9.6%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	65.0%	—	—	—	—	62.5%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	70.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	69.8%	—	—	—	—	49.5%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	91.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	—	—	—	48.4%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	93.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	62.5%	—	—	—	—	53.2%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	92.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	96.3%	—	—	—	—	43.1%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	77.2%	—	—	—	—	52.1%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	32.5%	—	—	—	—	54.8%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	16.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	17.8%	—	—	—	—	64.6%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	69.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	62.5%	—	—	—	—	70.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	54.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	88.1%	—	—	—	—	76.2%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	85.5%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	84.8%	—	—	—	—	68.1%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	73.5%	—	49.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	92.1%	—	—	—	—	73.4%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	91.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	70.9%	—	81.1%	—	—	77.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	85.1%	—	86.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	85.6%	—	87.0%	—	—	68.8%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	86.7%	—	81.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	79.7%	12.1%	82.0%	—	—	72.4%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	76.1%	—	91.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	84.2%	85.9%	78.1%	0.7%	—	72.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	74.1%	—	76.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	74.0%	85.2%	75.7%	21.5%	—	54.4%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	61.8%	—	88.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	75.5%	74.9%	87.5%	7.0%	—	43.2%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	73.4%	—	85.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	4.9%	69.2%	60.3%	30.9%	—	46.8%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	65.1%	0.1%	73.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	8.3%	82.7%	63.9%	36.1%	—	36.1%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	67.4%	35.0%	65.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	1.8%	81.0%	61.3%	31.4%	—	12.7%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	45.5%	75.0%	50.0%	—	—	26.4%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	82.8%	71.8%	63.6%	57.3%	—	53.7%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	86.3%	75.4%	66.5%	—	—	61.2%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	84.1%	72.9%	64.3%	55.8%	—	60.6%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	85.4%	70.1%	67.4%	—	—	57.0%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	80.3%	58.2%	69.7%	42.8%	0.1%	54.1%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	81.0%	66.5%	68.4%	—	—	51.1%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	83.1%	75.3%	70.8%	59.7%	—	51.1%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	81.0%	62.2%	71.4%	0.0%	—	52.2%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	81.0%	64.8%	75.8%	44.2%	0.0%	48.8%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	83.3%	76.6%	70.7%	46.4%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	86.3%	76.4%	77.3%	48.8%	52.5%	55.0%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	83.4%	73.1%	74.1%	44.9%	—	47.4%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	85.1%	79.0%	79.0%	43.3%	50.0%	48.7%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	90.2%	88.2%	81.8%	52.8%	—	56.9%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	90.5%	94.1%	87.0%	57.2%	61.4%	61.4%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	89.5%	—	88.0%	50.0%	—	50.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	99%	74.1°F	2.9°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	95%	74.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
National Blend	75%	69.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	69%	69.3°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	66%	68.9°F	3.4°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
ICON	62%	68.6°F	3.5°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	68.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KRIC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KRIC-20261020-TMAX-GE68
Opened Oct 16 · 15:05 UTC

Original listing: Richmond high ≥ 68°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗