KRIC / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Richmond, VAHigh ≥ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST85%Oct 19 · 14:27 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

99%

95%

69%

66%

62%

Consensus

85%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 80.5¢Risks 80.50u

ICONNO 19.5¢Risks 19.50u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +19.50u · ICON −19.50u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T14:27:57+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-16T15:05:12+00:00	77.8%	28.3%	82.7%	53.2%	88.0%
2026-10-16T15:50:53+00:00	77.8%	28.3%	82.7%	53.2%	88.0%
2026-10-16T16:36:07+00:00	77.8%	28.3%	82.7%	53.2%	88.0%
2026-10-16T17:21:17+00:00	77.8%	28.3%	96.6%	53.2%	88.0%
2026-10-16T18:06:35+00:00	77.8%	28.3%	96.6%	53.2%	88.0%
2026-10-16T18:51:41+00:00	77.8%	28.3%	96.6%	53.2%	88.0%
2026-10-16T19:36:53+00:00	95.6%	28.3%	96.6%	53.2%	80.6%
2026-10-16T20:22:21+00:00	95.6%	28.3%	96.6%	53.2%	80.6%
2026-10-16T21:07:44+00:00	95.6%	28.3%	96.6%	53.2%	80.6%
2026-10-16T21:52:51+00:00	95.6%	28.3%	96.6%	53.2%	80.6%
2026-10-16T22:37:58+00:00	95.6%	28.3%	96.6%	69.8%	80.6%
2026-10-16T23:23:19+00:00	95.6%	28.3%	97.7%	69.8%	80.6%
2026-10-17T00:08:47+00:00	95.6%	28.3%	97.7%	69.8%	80.6%
2026-10-17T00:54:55+00:00	95.6%	28.3%	97.7%	69.8%	80.6%
2026-10-17T01:40:04+00:00	96.3%	28.3%	97.7%	69.8%	80.6%
2026-10-17T02:25:17+00:00	96.3%	28.3%	97.7%	69.8%	80.6%
2026-10-17T03:10:27+00:00	96.3%	28.3%	97.7%	69.8%	80.6%
2026-10-17T03:55:36+00:00	96.3%	28.3%	97.7%	69.8%	80.6%
2026-10-17T15:24:28+00:00	96.6%	84.9%	98.4%	71.2%	79.0%
2026-10-17T16:10:30+00:00	96.6%	84.9%	98.4%	71.2%	79.0%
2026-10-17T16:55:37+00:00	96.6%	84.9%	98.2%	71.2%	79.0%
2026-10-17T17:40:46+00:00	96.6%	84.9%	98.2%	71.2%	79.0%
2026-10-17T18:25:54+00:00	96.6%	84.9%	98.2%	71.2%	79.0%
2026-10-17T19:11:02+00:00	96.6%	84.9%	98.2%	71.2%	79.0%
2026-10-17T19:56:09+00:00	95.1%	84.9%	98.2%	66.5%	64.7%
2026-10-17T20:41:25+00:00	95.1%	84.9%	98.2%	66.5%	64.7%
2026-10-17T21:26:36+00:00	95.1%	84.9%	98.2%	66.5%	64.7%
2026-10-17T22:11:52+00:00	95.1%	84.9%	98.2%	66.5%	64.7%
2026-10-17T22:56:59+00:00	95.1%	84.9%	97.7%	66.5%	64.7%
2026-10-17T23:42:10+00:00	95.1%	85.0%	97.7%	66.5%	64.7%
2026-10-18T00:27:21+00:00	95.1%	85.0%	97.7%	66.5%	64.7%
2026-10-18T01:12:50+00:00	95.1%	85.0%	97.7%	66.5%	64.7%
2026-10-18T01:58:11+00:00	94.9%	85.0%	97.7%	66.5%	64.7%
2026-10-18T02:43:19+00:00	94.9%	85.0%	97.7%	66.5%	64.7%
2026-10-18T03:28:27+00:00	94.9%	85.0%	97.7%	66.5%	64.7%
2026-10-19T04:30:25+00:00	95.3%	63.2%	98.8%	65.2%	61.1%
2026-10-19T05:16:56+00:00	95.3%	63.2%	98.9%	65.2%	61.1%
2026-10-19T06:02:11+00:00	95.3%	63.2%	98.9%	65.2%	61.1%
2026-10-19T06:47:19+00:00	95.3%	63.2%	98.9%	65.2%	61.1%
2026-10-19T07:32:41+00:00	96.2%	63.2%	98.9%	68.6%	61.1%
2026-10-19T08:19:20+00:00	96.2%	63.2%	98.9%	68.6%	61.1%
2026-10-19T09:04:26+00:00	96.2%	63.2%	98.9%	68.6%	61.1%
2026-10-19T09:49:32+00:00	96.2%	63.2%	98.9%	68.6%	61.1%
2026-10-19T10:34:59+00:00	96.2%	63.2%	98.9%	68.6%	61.1%
2026-10-19T11:20:40+00:00	96.2%	65.8%	98.8%	68.6%	61.1%
2026-10-19T12:06:28+00:00	96.2%	65.8%	98.8%	68.6%	61.1%
2026-10-19T12:51:49+00:00	96.2%	65.8%	98.8%	68.6%	61.1%
2026-10-19T13:36:55+00:00	95.1%	65.8%	98.8%	68.6%	61.1%
2026-10-19T14:27:57+00:00	95.1%	65.8%	98.8%	68.6%	62.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	99%	74.1°F	2.9°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	95%	74.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
National Blend	75%	69.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	69%	69.3°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	66%	68.9°F	3.4°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
ICON	62%	68.6°F	3.5°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	68.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KRIC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KRIC-20261020-TMAX-GE68
Opened Oct 16 · 15:05 UTC

Original listing: Richmond high ≥ 68°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗