KRIC / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Richmond, VAHigh ≥ 69°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST75%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

95%

94%

55%

54%

52%

Consensus

75%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 73.8¢Risks 73.85u

ICONNO 26.2¢Risks 26.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +26.15u · ICON −26.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	57.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	7.5%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	35.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	60.0%	—	—	—	—	57.4%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	66.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	65.0%	—	—	—	—	44.2%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	89.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	31.6%	—	—	—	—	43.1%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	91.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	57.4%	—	—	—	—	47.9%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	90.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	95.1%	—	—	—	—	38.0%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	22.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	73.0%	—	—	—	—	46.8%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	16.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	27.9%	—	—	—	—	49.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	13.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	14.5%	—	—	—	—	59.5%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	64.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	57.1%	—	—	—	—	65.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	48.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	85.1%	—	—	—	—	71.5%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	81.9%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	81.1%	—	—	—	—	62.7%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	68.4%	—	43.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	89.7%	—	—	—	—	68.1%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	88.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	65.3%	—	76.6%	—	—	72.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	81.1%	—	82.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	81.5%	—	83.2%	—	—	62.8%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	82.8%	—	76.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	74.6%	9.0%	77.2%	—	—	66.4%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	70.4%	—	88.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	79.6%	81.6%	72.5%	0.4%	—	66.4%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	68.0%	—	70.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	67.7%	80.6%	69.6%	16.5%	—	47.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	54.5%	—	84.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	69.1%	68.4%	83.1%	4.8%	—	35.8%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	66.6%	—	81.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	3.1%	61.8%	52.4%	24.2%	—	39.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	57.3%	0.1%	66.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	5.6%	76.8%	55.8%	28.6%	—	28.6%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	59.3%	27.4%	56.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	1.1%	74.5%	52.6%	24.1%	—	8.6%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	36.8%	67.4%	41.1%	—	—	19.6%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	76.3%	63.6%	54.6%	48.2%	—	44.5%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	80.4%	67.4%	57.5%	—	—	51.9%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	77.5%	64.3%	54.9%	46.1%	—	51.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	78.9%	60.9%	58.0%	—	—	47.0%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	72.4%	47.9%	60.2%	33.0%	0.0%	43.9%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	73.0%	56.3%	58.4%	—	—	40.6%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	75.3%	65.9%	60.8%	48.9%	—	40.3%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	72.4%	51.1%	61.1%	0.0%	—	41.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	72.0%	53.5%	65.9%	33.1%	0.0%	37.4%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	74.7%	66.4%	59.5%	34.7%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	78.3%	65.8%	66.9%	36.5%	40.1%	42.6%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	74.1%	61.5%	62.7%	32.5%	—	34.9%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	76.0%	68.1%	68.1%	30.7%	36.8%	35.6%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	82.7%	79.9%	71.2%	39.0%	—	43.1%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	82.8%	88.5%	77.8%	42.8%	47.1%	47.1%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	80.8%	—	78.7%	35.2%	—	35.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	95%	73.4°F	2.9°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	94%	74.6°F	3.9°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
National Blend	59%	69.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	69.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-19 14:00	Pending
IFS HRES	55%	69.0°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	54%	68.8°F	3.4°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
ICON	52%	68.7°F	3.5°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 69°F · KRIC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KRIC-20261020-TMAX-GE69
Opened Oct 15 · 15:33 UTC

Original listing: Richmond high ≥ 69°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗