KRIC / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Richmond, VAHigh ≥ 69°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST75%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

95%

94%

55%

54%

52%

Consensus

75%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 73.8¢Risks 73.85u

ICONNO 26.2¢Risks 26.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +26.15u · ICON −26.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T03:18:02+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-15T15:33:45+00:00	81.7%	52.4%	82.2%	60.2%	75.8%
2026-10-15T16:19:53+00:00	81.7%	52.4%	82.2%	60.2%	75.8%
2026-10-15T17:05:20+00:00	81.7%	52.4%	91.3%	60.2%	75.8%
2026-10-15T17:50:35+00:00	81.7%	52.4%	91.3%	60.2%	75.8%
2026-10-15T18:35:57+00:00	81.7%	52.4%	91.3%	60.2%	75.8%
2026-10-15T19:21:06+00:00	81.7%	52.4%	91.3%	60.2%	75.8%
2026-10-15T20:06:13+00:00	24.7%	52.4%	91.3%	59.6%	85.0%
2026-10-15T20:51:27+00:00	24.7%	52.4%	91.3%	59.6%	85.0%
2026-10-15T21:36:41+00:00	24.7%	52.4%	91.3%	59.6%	85.0%
2026-10-15T22:21:48+00:00	24.7%	52.4%	91.3%	59.6%	85.0%
2026-10-15T23:06:58+00:00	24.7%	52.4%	84.1%	59.6%	85.0%
2026-10-15T23:52:12+00:00	24.7%	52.4%	84.1%	59.6%	85.0%
2026-10-16T00:37:21+00:00	24.7%	52.4%	84.1%	59.6%	85.0%
2026-10-16T01:22:41+00:00	83.3%	52.4%	84.1%	59.6%	85.0%
2026-10-16T02:08:03+00:00	83.3%	52.4%	84.1%	59.6%	85.0%
2026-10-16T02:53:27+00:00	83.3%	52.4%	84.1%	59.6%	85.0%
2026-10-16T03:38:38+00:00	83.3%	52.4%	84.1%	59.6%	85.0%
2026-10-18T04:13:43+00:00	92.0%	75.1%	95.5%	58.0%	55.0%
2026-10-18T05:00:11+00:00	92.0%	75.1%	97.3%	58.0%	55.0%
2026-10-18T05:45:18+00:00	92.0%	75.1%	97.3%	58.0%	55.0%
2026-10-18T06:30:25+00:00	92.0%	75.1%	97.3%	58.0%	55.0%
2026-10-18T07:15:31+00:00	92.0%	75.1%	97.3%	58.0%	55.0%
2026-10-18T08:00:54+00:00	93.7%	75.1%	97.3%	56.8%	63.3%
2026-10-18T08:47:08+00:00	93.7%	75.1%	97.3%	56.8%	63.3%
2026-10-18T09:32:16+00:00	93.7%	75.1%	97.3%	56.8%	63.3%
2026-10-18T10:17:24+00:00	93.7%	75.1%	97.3%	56.8%	63.3%
2026-10-18T11:02:35+00:00	93.7%	64.2%	97.7%	56.8%	63.3%
2026-10-18T11:48:11+00:00	93.7%	64.2%	97.7%	56.8%	63.3%
2026-10-18T12:33:25+00:00	93.7%	64.2%	97.7%	56.8%	63.3%
2026-10-18T13:18:59+00:00	93.7%	64.2%	97.7%	56.8%	63.3%
2026-10-18T14:04:07+00:00	92.0%	64.0%	97.7%	56.8%	63.2%
2026-10-18T14:55:35+00:00	92.0%	64.0%	97.7%	56.8%	63.2%
2026-10-18T15:41:24+00:00	92.0%	51.2%	97.7%	56.8%	63.2%
2026-10-18T16:26:48+00:00	92.0%	51.2%	97.7%	56.8%	63.2%
2026-10-18T17:12:04+00:00	92.0%	51.2%	96.9%	56.8%	63.2%
2026-10-18T17:57:17+00:00	92.0%	51.2%	96.9%	56.8%	63.2%
2026-10-18T18:42:45+00:00	92.0%	51.2%	96.9%	56.8%	63.2%
2026-10-18T19:27:53+00:00	91.6%	51.2%	96.9%	55.8%	50.0%
2026-10-18T20:13:04+00:00	91.6%	51.2%	96.9%	55.8%	50.0%
2026-10-18T20:58:13+00:00	91.6%	51.2%	96.9%	55.8%	50.0%
2026-10-18T21:43:22+00:00	91.6%	51.2%	96.9%	55.8%	50.0%
2026-10-18T22:28:30+00:00	91.6%	51.2%	96.9%	55.8%	50.0%
2026-10-18T23:13:38+00:00	91.6%	51.2%	97.4%	55.8%	50.0%
2026-10-18T23:58:48+00:00	91.6%	51.2%	97.4%	55.8%	50.0%
2026-10-19T00:44:03+00:00	91.6%	51.2%	97.4%	55.8%	50.0%
2026-10-19T01:29:29+00:00	92.3%	51.2%	97.4%	55.8%	50.0%
2026-10-19T02:14:43+00:00	92.3%	51.2%	97.4%	55.8%	50.0%
2026-10-19T02:59:53+00:00	92.3%	51.2%	97.4%	55.8%	50.0%
2026-10-19T03:45:03+00:00	92.3%	51.2%	97.4%	55.8%	50.0%
2026-10-19T15:13:18+00:00	91.9%	53.5%	97.3%	58.5%	51.1%
2026-10-19T15:59:06+00:00	91.9%	53.5%	97.3%	58.5%	51.1%
2026-10-19T16:44:14+00:00	91.9%	53.5%	97.3%	58.5%	51.1%
2026-10-19T17:29:26+00:00	91.9%	53.5%	95.4%	58.5%	51.1%
2026-10-19T18:14:37+00:00	91.9%	53.5%	95.4%	58.5%	51.1%
2026-10-19T18:59:50+00:00	91.9%	53.5%	95.4%	58.5%	51.1%
2026-10-19T19:45:25+00:00	92.3%	53.5%	95.4%	55.4%	52.3%
2026-10-19T20:30:36+00:00	92.3%	53.5%	95.4%	55.4%	52.3%
2026-10-19T21:15:50+00:00	92.3%	53.5%	95.4%	55.4%	52.3%
2026-10-19T22:00:58+00:00	92.3%	53.5%	95.4%	55.4%	52.3%
2026-10-19T22:46:10+00:00	92.3%	53.5%	95.4%	55.4%	52.3%
2026-10-19T23:31:24+00:00	92.3%	53.5%	95.4%	55.4%	52.3%
2026-10-20T00:16:42+00:00	92.3%	53.5%	95.4%	55.4%	52.3%
2026-10-20T01:02:35+00:00	92.3%	53.5%	95.4%	55.4%	52.3%
2026-10-20T01:47:43+00:00	94.0%	53.5%	95.4%	55.4%	52.3%
2026-10-20T02:32:54+00:00	94.0%	53.5%	95.4%	55.4%	52.3%
2026-10-20T03:18:02+00:00	94.0%	53.5%	95.4%	55.4%	52.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	95%	73.4°F	2.9°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	94%	74.6°F	3.9°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
National Blend	59%	69.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	69.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-19 14:00	Pending
IFS HRES	55%	69.0°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	54%	68.8°F	3.4°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
ICON	52%	68.7°F	3.5°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 69°F · KRIC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KRIC-20261020-TMAX-GE69
Opened Oct 15 · 15:33 UTC

Original listing: Richmond high ≥ 69°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗