KRIC / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Richmond, VAHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST43%Oct 16 · 14:19 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

71%

55%

54%

30%

13%

Consensus

43%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 41.9¢Risks 41.85u

EPSNO 58.1¢Risks 58.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +58.15u · EPS −58.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	4.4%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	26.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	49.5%	—	—	—	—	46.8%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	55.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	54.8%	—	—	—	—	34.0%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	83.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	22.8%	—	—	—	—	33.0%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	86.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	—	—	—	37.5%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	85.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	91.7%	—	—	—	—	28.3%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	15.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	63.6%	—	—	—	—	36.4%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	10.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	—	—	—	39.0%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	8.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	9.3%	—	—	—	—	48.9%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	53.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	46.2%	—	—	—	—	54.9%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	37.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	77.5%	—	—	—	—	61.2%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	73.3%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	72.2%	—	—	—	—	51.2%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	57.1%	—	32.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	83.1%	—	—	—	—	56.6%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	81.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	53.1%	—	65.9%	—	—	60.6%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	71.3%	—	73.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	71.6%	—	73.8%	—	—	50.0%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	73.1%	—	65.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	62.6%	4.7%	65.8%	—	—	53.4%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	57.5%	—	79.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	68.3%	70.8%	59.7%	0.1%	—	52.8%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	54.3%	—	57.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	53.6%	69.0%	55.8%	9.0%	—	33.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	39.6%	—	73.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	54.6%	53.8%	71.7%	2.0%	—	22.8%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	51.6%	—	68.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	1.2%	46.0%	36.7%	13.6%	—	24.8%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	41.1%	0.0%	50.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	2.2%	62.3%	39.3%	16.2%	—	16.2%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	42.4%	15.2%	39.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	0.3%	58.7%	35.4%	12.7%	—	3.6%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	21.5%	50.0%	24.9%	—	—	9.6%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	60.0%	45.4%	36.4%	30.6%	—	27.4%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	64.8%	49.0%	38.8%	—	—	33.5%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	60.6%	45.1%	35.7%	27.9%	—	32.1%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	61.8%	41.1%	38.2%	—	—	28.2%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	53.1%	28.5%	39.8%	17.0%	0.0%	25.1%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	53.2%	35.5%	37.5%	—	—	22.0%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	55.5%	44.5%	39.2%	28.2%	—	21.3%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	51.1%	29.6%	38.9%	0.0%	—	21.4%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	50.0%	31.0%	43.0%	15.3%	0.0%	18.3%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	52.4%	42.8%	35.9%	16.0%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	56.2%	41.3%	42.6%	16.6%	19.1%	20.8%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	50.0%	36.1%	37.3%	13.5%	—	15.0%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	51.3%	42.0%	42.0%	12.0%	15.7%	14.9%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	59.7%	55.6%	44.4%	16.4%	—	19.1%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	58.6%	68.2%	51.4%	18.2%	21.2%	21.2%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	54.5%	—	51.5%	12.8%	—	12.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	71%	73.2°F	4.9°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	55%	71.0°F	3.7°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	71.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-16 02:00	Pending
AIFS Single	54%	71.0°F	4.6°F	2026-10-16 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	30%	67.9°F	5.0°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
National Blend	27%	67.0°F	5.6°F	2026-10-16 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	13%	64.6°F	5.1°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KRIC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KRIC-20261020-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 14 · 15:12 UTC

Original listing: Richmond high ≥ 71°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗