KRIC / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Richmond, VAHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST43%Oct 16 · 14:19 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

71%

55%

54%

30%

13%

Consensus

43%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 41.9¢Risks 41.85u

EPSNO 58.1¢Risks 58.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +58.15u · EPS −58.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-16T14:19:40+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-14T15:12:03+00:00	67.2%	36.4%	62.6%	44.0%	81.4%
2026-10-14T15:57:52+00:00	67.2%	36.4%	62.6%	44.0%	81.4%
2026-10-14T16:43:02+00:00	67.2%	36.4%	62.6%	44.0%	81.4%
2026-10-14T17:28:10+00:00	67.2%	36.4%	54.3%	44.0%	81.4%
2026-10-14T18:13:19+00:00	67.2%	36.4%	54.3%	44.0%	81.4%
2026-10-14T18:58:25+00:00	67.2%	36.4%	54.3%	44.0%	81.4%
2026-10-14T19:43:32+00:00	78.7%	36.4%	54.3%	39.2%	71.9%
2026-10-14T20:28:47+00:00	78.7%	36.4%	54.3%	39.2%	71.9%
2026-10-14T21:13:54+00:00	78.7%	36.4%	54.3%	39.2%	71.9%
2026-10-14T21:59:01+00:00	78.7%	36.4%	54.3%	39.2%	71.9%
2026-10-14T22:44:07+00:00	78.7%	36.4%	54.3%	39.2%	71.9%
2026-10-14T23:29:31+00:00	78.7%	36.4%	61.8%	39.2%	71.9%
2026-10-15T00:14:39+00:00	78.7%	36.4%	61.8%	39.2%	71.9%
2026-10-15T01:01:07+00:00	78.7%	36.4%	61.8%	39.2%	71.9%
2026-10-15T01:46:16+00:00	76.5%	36.4%	61.8%	39.2%	71.9%
2026-10-15T02:31:28+00:00	76.5%	36.4%	61.8%	39.2%	71.9%
2026-10-15T03:16:36+00:00	76.5%	36.4%	61.8%	39.2%	71.9%
2026-10-15T04:01:52+00:00	76.5%	36.4%	61.8%	39.2%	71.9%
2026-10-15T04:47:49+00:00	76.5%	36.4%	61.8%	39.2%	71.9%
2026-10-15T05:33:15+00:00	76.5%	36.4%	77.3%	39.2%	71.9%
2026-10-15T06:18:25+00:00	76.5%	36.4%	77.3%	39.2%	71.9%
2026-10-15T07:03:33+00:00	76.5%	36.4%	77.3%	39.2%	71.9%
2026-10-15T07:49:06+00:00	7.7%	36.4%	77.3%	46.5%	63.8%
2026-10-15T08:35:49+00:00	7.7%	36.4%	77.3%	46.5%	63.8%
2026-10-15T09:21:36+00:00	7.7%	36.4%	77.3%	46.5%	63.8%
2026-10-15T10:07:21+00:00	7.7%	36.4%	77.3%	46.5%	63.8%
2026-10-15T10:52:49+00:00	7.7%	36.4%	77.3%	46.5%	63.8%
2026-10-15T11:39:07+00:00	7.7%	36.4%	66.9%	46.5%	63.8%
2026-10-15T12:24:49+00:00	7.7%	34.5%	66.9%	46.5%	63.8%
2026-10-15T13:10:08+00:00	7.7%	34.5%	66.9%	46.5%	63.8%
2026-10-15T13:55:47+00:00	69.3%	34.5%	66.9%	46.6%	64.3%
2026-10-15T14:48:23+00:00	69.3%	34.5%	66.9%	46.6%	64.3%
2026-10-16T04:23:54+00:00	71.4%	36.7%	69.5%	45.9%	75.8%
2026-10-16T05:10:23+00:00	71.4%	36.7%	66.9%	45.9%	75.8%
2026-10-16T05:55:49+00:00	71.4%	36.7%	66.9%	45.9%	75.8%
2026-10-16T06:41:01+00:00	71.4%	36.7%	66.9%	45.9%	75.8%
2026-10-16T07:26:12+00:00	3.5%	36.7%	66.9%	45.9%	71.1%
2026-10-16T08:11:22+00:00	3.5%	36.7%	66.9%	45.9%	71.1%
2026-10-16T08:56:32+00:00	3.5%	36.7%	66.9%	45.9%	71.1%
2026-10-16T09:41:40+00:00	3.5%	36.7%	66.9%	45.9%	71.1%
2026-10-16T10:26:47+00:00	3.5%	36.7%	66.9%	45.9%	71.1%
2026-10-16T11:12:06+00:00	3.5%	12.5%	55.3%	45.9%	71.1%
2026-10-16T11:57:36+00:00	3.5%	12.5%	55.3%	45.9%	71.1%
2026-10-16T12:42:47+00:00	3.5%	12.5%	55.3%	45.9%	71.1%
2026-10-16T13:28:04+00:00	54.3%	12.5%	55.3%	30.2%	71.1%
2026-10-16T14:19:40+00:00	54.3%	12.6%	55.3%	30.2%	71.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	71%	73.2°F	4.9°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	55%	71.0°F	3.7°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	71.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-16 02:00	Pending
AIFS Single	54%	71.0°F	4.6°F	2026-10-16 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	30%	67.9°F	5.0°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
National Blend	27%	67.0°F	5.6°F	2026-10-16 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	13%	64.6°F	5.1°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KRIC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KRIC-20261020-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 14 · 15:12 UTC

Original listing: Richmond high ≥ 71°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗