KRIC / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Richmond, VAHigh ≥ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST70%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

93%

90%

69%

53%

50%

Consensus

70%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 71.5¢Risks 71.55u

HRESNO 28.4¢Risks 28.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +28.45u · HRES −28.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	2.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	6.1%	—	—	—	—	13.7%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	80.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	31.6%	—	—	—	—	59.5%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	25.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	61.0%	—	—	—	—	59.0%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	59.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	93.1%	—	—	—	—	56.4%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	71.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	64.1%	—	—	—	—	62.1%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	48.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	65.5%	—	—	—	—	68.4%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	52.1%	—	—	—	—	76.4%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	84.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	84.5%	—	—	—	—	81.1%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	73.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	87.8%	—	—	—	—	85.5%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	62.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	83.6%	—	—	—	—	80.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	77.1%	—	57.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	89.0%	—	—	—	—	82.6%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	64.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	76.4%	—	43.0%	—	—	80.3%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	90.8%	—	84.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	91.7%	—	—	—	—	75.8%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	93.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	90.4%	—	22.5%	—	—	81.5%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	87.2%	—	89.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	91.5%	—	94.3%	—	—	85.9%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	87.1%	—	94.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	89.5%	43.9%	93.2%	—	—	72.4%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	80.6%	—	92.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	74.3%	72.0%	86.3%	12.6%	—	59.1%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	71.1%	—	88.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	17.5%	14.4%	65.7%	44.2%	—	64.3%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	91.4%	—	82.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	8.1%	78.4%	64.9%	69.7%	—	62.7%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	43.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	10.0%	86.9%	56.4%	66.3%	—	30.1%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	16.8%	12.2%	38.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	49.2%	71.4%	41.7%	51.7%	—	50.8%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	54.3%	56.0%	52.6%	—	—	2.1%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	28.4%	67.0%	48.2%	45.6%	—	42.2%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	68.2%	19.0%	58.0%	—	—	37.6%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	52.8%	15.4%	57.3%	35.6%	—	34.7%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	59.4%	48.1%	49.0%	—	—	35.2%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	53.9%	58.7%	57.7%	43.2%	—	33.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	58.0%	17.7%	57.0%	—	—	35.3%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	46.9%	58.2%	60.2%	22.7%	—	30.3%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	61.5%	66.5%	48.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	63.9%	67.9%	51.1%	36.1%	—	35.1%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	59.0%	64.3%	48.9%	0.0%	—	31.5%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	60.4%	57.0%	52.3%	19.9%	0.5%	30.0%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	67.5%	65.3%	52.4%	21.6%	—	33.6%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	64.6%	70.2%	57.4%	34.2%	37.7%	37.7%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	66.3%	—	62.7%	29.1%	—	33.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	93%	70.1°F	3.1°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	90%	70.7°F	4.0°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	69%	67.1°F	3.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	66.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-19 14:00	Pending
ICON	53%	65.8°F	3.6°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	50%	65.5°F	4.1°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
National Blend	41%	65.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KRIC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KRIC-20261021-TMAX-GE66
Opened Oct 17 · 04:41 UTC

Original listing: Richmond high ≥ 66°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗