KRIC / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Richmond, VAHigh ≥ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST70%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

93%

90%

69%

53%

50%

Consensus

70%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 71.5¢Risks 71.55u

HRESNO 28.4¢Risks 28.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +28.45u · HRES −28.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T03:18:02+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-17T04:41:04+00:00	81.8%	50.9%	96.4%	62.2%	81.5%
2026-10-17T05:28:21+00:00	81.8%	50.9%	95.8%	62.2%	81.5%
2026-10-17T06:13:34+00:00	81.8%	50.9%	95.8%	62.2%	81.5%
2026-10-17T06:58:44+00:00	81.8%	50.9%	95.8%	62.2%	81.5%
2026-10-17T07:44:02+00:00	62.8%	50.9%	95.8%	58.7%	77.7%
2026-10-17T08:30:37+00:00	62.8%	50.9%	95.8%	58.7%	77.7%
2026-10-17T09:16:28+00:00	62.8%	50.9%	95.8%	58.7%	77.7%
2026-10-17T10:01:48+00:00	62.8%	50.9%	95.8%	58.7%	77.7%
2026-10-17T10:46:53+00:00	62.8%	50.9%	95.8%	58.7%	77.7%
2026-10-17T11:32:00+00:00	62.8%	90.2%	90.6%	58.7%	77.7%
2026-10-17T12:17:26+00:00	62.8%	90.2%	90.6%	58.7%	77.7%
2026-10-17T13:02:32+00:00	62.8%	90.2%	90.6%	58.7%	77.7%
2026-10-17T13:47:48+00:00	90.1%	90.2%	90.6%	58.7%	77.7%
2026-10-17T14:39:15+00:00	90.1%	90.2%	90.6%	58.7%	77.6%
2026-10-18T04:13:43+00:00	85.7%	91.3%	74.9%	52.4%	29.0%
2026-10-18T05:00:11+00:00	85.7%	91.3%	86.4%	52.4%	29.0%
2026-10-18T05:45:18+00:00	85.7%	91.3%	86.4%	52.4%	29.0%
2026-10-18T06:30:25+00:00	85.7%	91.3%	86.4%	52.4%	29.0%
2026-10-18T07:15:31+00:00	85.7%	91.3%	86.4%	52.4%	29.0%
2026-10-18T08:00:54+00:00	84.2%	91.3%	86.4%	48.2%	65.7%
2026-10-18T08:47:08+00:00	84.2%	91.3%	86.4%	48.2%	65.7%
2026-10-18T09:32:16+00:00	84.2%	91.3%	86.4%	48.2%	65.7%
2026-10-18T10:17:24+00:00	84.2%	91.3%	86.4%	48.2%	65.7%
2026-10-18T11:02:35+00:00	84.2%	85.9%	91.8%	48.2%	65.7%
2026-10-18T11:48:11+00:00	84.2%	85.9%	91.8%	48.2%	65.7%
2026-10-18T12:33:25+00:00	84.2%	85.9%	91.8%	48.2%	65.7%
2026-10-18T13:18:59+00:00	84.2%	85.9%	91.8%	48.2%	65.7%
2026-10-18T14:04:07+00:00	85.9%	85.1%	91.8%	48.2%	65.6%
2026-10-18T14:55:35+00:00	85.9%	85.1%	91.8%	48.2%	65.6%
2026-10-18T15:41:24+00:00	85.9%	72.7%	91.8%	48.2%	65.6%
2026-10-18T16:26:48+00:00	85.9%	72.7%	91.8%	48.2%	65.6%
2026-10-18T17:12:04+00:00	85.9%	72.7%	89.9%	48.2%	65.6%
2026-10-18T17:57:17+00:00	85.9%	72.7%	89.9%	48.2%	65.6%
2026-10-18T18:42:45+00:00	85.9%	72.7%	89.9%	48.2%	65.6%
2026-10-18T19:27:53+00:00	80.0%	72.7%	89.9%	48.2%	64.7%
2026-10-18T20:13:04+00:00	80.0%	72.7%	89.9%	48.2%	64.7%
2026-10-18T20:58:13+00:00	80.0%	72.7%	89.9%	48.2%	64.7%
2026-10-18T21:43:22+00:00	80.0%	72.7%	89.9%	48.2%	64.7%
2026-10-18T22:28:30+00:00	80.0%	72.7%	89.9%	48.2%	64.7%
2026-10-18T23:13:38+00:00	80.0%	72.7%	91.4%	48.2%	64.7%
2026-10-18T23:58:48+00:00	80.0%	72.7%	91.4%	48.2%	64.7%
2026-10-19T00:44:03+00:00	80.0%	72.7%	91.4%	48.2%	64.7%
2026-10-19T01:29:29+00:00	87.4%	72.7%	91.4%	48.2%	64.7%
2026-10-19T02:14:43+00:00	87.4%	72.7%	91.4%	48.2%	64.7%
2026-10-19T02:59:53+00:00	87.4%	72.7%	91.4%	48.2%	64.7%
2026-10-19T03:45:03+00:00	87.4%	72.7%	91.4%	48.2%	64.7%
2026-10-19T04:30:25+00:00	87.4%	72.7%	91.4%	48.2%	64.7%
2026-10-19T05:16:56+00:00	87.4%	72.7%	95.2%	48.2%	64.7%
2026-10-19T06:02:11+00:00	87.4%	72.7%	95.2%	48.2%	64.7%
2026-10-19T06:47:19+00:00	87.4%	72.7%	95.2%	48.2%	64.7%
2026-10-19T07:32:41+00:00	89.1%	72.7%	95.2%	49.0%	65.3%
2026-10-19T08:19:20+00:00	89.1%	72.7%	95.2%	49.0%	65.3%
2026-10-19T09:04:26+00:00	89.1%	72.7%	95.2%	49.0%	65.3%
2026-10-19T09:49:32+00:00	89.1%	72.7%	95.2%	49.0%	65.3%
2026-10-19T10:34:59+00:00	89.1%	72.7%	95.2%	49.0%	65.3%
2026-10-19T11:20:40+00:00	89.1%	70.0%	95.3%	49.0%	65.3%
2026-10-19T12:06:28+00:00	89.1%	70.0%	95.3%	49.0%	65.3%
2026-10-19T12:51:49+00:00	89.1%	70.0%	95.3%	49.0%	65.3%
2026-10-19T13:36:55+00:00	86.1%	70.0%	95.3%	49.0%	65.3%
2026-10-19T14:27:57+00:00	86.2%	70.0%	95.3%	49.0%	65.3%
2026-10-19T15:13:18+00:00	86.2%	69.4%	95.3%	49.0%	65.3%
2026-10-19T15:59:06+00:00	86.2%	69.4%	95.3%	49.0%	65.3%
2026-10-19T16:44:14+00:00	86.2%	69.4%	95.3%	49.0%	65.3%
2026-10-19T17:29:26+00:00	86.2%	69.4%	93.5%	49.0%	65.3%
2026-10-19T18:14:37+00:00	86.2%	69.4%	93.5%	49.0%	65.3%
2026-10-19T18:59:50+00:00	86.2%	69.4%	93.5%	49.0%	65.3%
2026-10-19T19:45:25+00:00	87.3%	69.4%	93.5%	50.0%	53.4%
2026-10-19T20:30:36+00:00	87.3%	69.4%	93.5%	50.0%	53.4%
2026-10-19T21:15:50+00:00	87.3%	69.4%	93.5%	50.0%	53.4%
2026-10-19T22:00:58+00:00	87.3%	69.4%	93.5%	50.0%	53.4%
2026-10-19T22:46:10+00:00	87.3%	69.4%	93.5%	50.0%	53.4%
2026-10-19T23:31:24+00:00	87.3%	69.4%	93.1%	50.0%	53.4%
2026-10-20T00:16:42+00:00	87.3%	69.4%	93.1%	50.0%	53.4%
2026-10-20T01:02:35+00:00	87.3%	69.4%	93.1%	50.0%	53.4%
2026-10-20T01:47:43+00:00	90.1%	69.4%	93.1%	50.0%	53.4%
2026-10-20T02:32:54+00:00	90.1%	69.4%	93.1%	50.0%	53.4%
2026-10-20T03:18:02+00:00	90.1%	69.4%	93.1%	50.0%	53.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	93%	70.1°F	3.1°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	90%	70.7°F	4.0°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	69%	67.1°F	3.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	66.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-19 14:00	Pending
ICON	53%	65.8°F	3.6°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	50%	65.5°F	4.1°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
National Blend	41%	65.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KRIC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KRIC-20261021-TMAX-GE66
Opened Oct 17 · 04:41 UTC

Original listing: Richmond high ≥ 66°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗