KRIC / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Richmond, VAHigh ≥ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST59%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

82%

76%

48%

34%

34%

Consensus

59%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 57.9¢Risks 57.90u

ICONNO 42.1¢Risks 42.10u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +42.10u · ICON −42.10u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	3.5%	—	—	—	—	8.7%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	72.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	22.8%	—	—	—	—	48.9%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	17.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	50.5%	—	—	—	—	48.4%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	48.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	88.8%	—	—	—	—	45.8%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	62.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	53.7%	—	—	—	—	51.6%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	38.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	55.3%	—	—	—	—	58.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	41.5%	—	—	—	—	67.5%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	77.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	77.2%	—	—	—	—	73.0%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	63.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	81.5%	—	—	—	—	78.5%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	51.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	75.9%	—	—	—	—	71.4%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	67.8%	—	46.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	82.6%	—	—	—	—	74.4%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	53.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	66.5%	—	31.9%	—	—	71.2%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	84.9%	—	76.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	86.0%	—	—	—	—	65.4%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	88.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	83.9%	—	14.2%	—	—	72.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	79.3%	—	82.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	85.2%	—	89.6%	—	—	77.4%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	78.8%	—	90.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	82.0%	31.1%	87.5%	—	—	60.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	69.8%	—	86.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	61.8%	59.1%	77.0%	6.7%	—	45.1%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	57.8%	—	80.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	9.6%	7.6%	51.5%	30.4%	—	50.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	84.0%	—	71.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	3.8%	65.6%	50.0%	55.3%	—	47.7%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	10.2%	—	29.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	4.7%	76.4%	40.5%	50.8%	—	17.9%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	8.5%	5.8%	23.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	33.0%	55.8%	26.5%	35.3%	—	34.5%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	37.4%	39.0%	35.8%	—	—	0.7%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	15.6%	50.0%	31.4%	29.1%	—	26.2%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	50.9%	9.2%	40.2%	—	—	22.2%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	34.7%	7.0%	39.1%	20.3%	—	19.6%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	40.6%	30.1%	30.9%	—	—	19.6%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	34.8%	39.4%	38.5%	25.5%	—	17.7%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	38.2%	7.6%	37.2%	—	—	19.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	27.6%	37.8%	39.8%	10.3%	—	15.1%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	40.6%	45.8%	28.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	42.4%	46.7%	30.1%	18.3%	—	17.6%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	36.7%	42.2%	27.6%	0.0%	—	14.8%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	37.4%	34.1%	30.0%	7.6%	0.1%	13.4%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	44.0%	41.6%	29.3%	8.2%	—	15.2%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	40.1%	46.3%	33.1%	15.1%	17.4%	17.4%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	37.3%	11.5%	—	14.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	82%	70.2°F	2.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	76%	70.3°F	3.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	59%	68.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	68.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	48%	67.3°F	3.3°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	34%	66.0°F	3.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	34%	66.0°F	3.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KRIC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KRIC-20261021-TMAX-GE68
Opened Oct 15 · 15:33 UTC

Original listing: Richmond high ≥ 68°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗