KRIC / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Richmond, VAHigh ≥ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST59%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

82%

76%

48%

34%

34%

Consensus

59%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 57.9¢Risks 57.90u

ICONNO 42.1¢Risks 42.10u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +42.10u · ICON −42.10u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T14:46:21+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-15T15:33:46+00:00	95.1%	67.7%	87.2%	56.0%	27.7%
2026-10-15T16:19:53+00:00	95.1%	67.7%	87.2%	56.0%	27.7%
2026-10-15T17:05:20+00:00	95.1%	67.7%	92.7%	56.0%	27.7%
2026-10-15T17:50:35+00:00	95.1%	67.7%	92.7%	56.0%	27.7%
2026-10-15T18:35:57+00:00	95.1%	67.7%	92.7%	56.0%	27.7%
2026-10-15T19:21:06+00:00	95.1%	67.7%	92.7%	56.0%	27.7%
2026-10-15T20:06:13+00:00	18.7%	67.7%	92.7%	63.1%	78.9%
2026-10-15T20:51:27+00:00	18.7%	67.7%	92.7%	63.1%	78.9%
2026-10-15T21:36:41+00:00	18.7%	67.7%	92.7%	63.1%	78.9%
2026-10-15T22:21:48+00:00	18.7%	67.7%	92.7%	63.1%	78.9%
2026-10-15T23:06:58+00:00	18.7%	67.7%	86.7%	63.1%	78.9%
2026-10-15T23:52:12+00:00	18.7%	67.7%	86.7%	63.1%	78.9%
2026-10-16T00:37:21+00:00	18.7%	67.7%	86.7%	63.1%	78.9%
2026-10-16T01:22:41+00:00	35.5%	67.7%	86.7%	63.1%	78.9%
2026-10-16T02:08:03+00:00	35.5%	67.7%	86.7%	63.1%	78.9%
2026-10-16T02:53:27+00:00	35.5%	67.7%	86.7%	63.1%	78.9%
2026-10-16T03:38:38+00:00	35.5%	67.7%	86.7%	63.1%	78.9%
2026-10-16T15:05:12+00:00	32.1%	32.5%	72.0%	26.1%	85.3%
2026-10-16T15:50:54+00:00	32.1%	32.5%	72.0%	26.1%	85.3%
2026-10-16T16:36:07+00:00	32.1%	32.5%	72.0%	26.1%	85.3%
2026-10-16T17:21:17+00:00	32.1%	32.5%	90.6%	26.1%	85.3%
2026-10-16T18:06:35+00:00	32.1%	32.5%	90.6%	26.1%	85.3%
2026-10-16T18:51:41+00:00	32.1%	32.5%	90.6%	26.1%	85.3%
2026-10-16T19:36:53+00:00	65.7%	32.5%	90.6%	26.1%	71.4%
2026-10-16T20:22:21+00:00	65.7%	32.5%	90.6%	26.1%	71.4%
2026-10-16T21:07:44+00:00	65.7%	32.5%	90.6%	26.1%	71.4%
2026-10-16T21:52:51+00:00	65.7%	32.5%	90.6%	26.1%	71.4%
2026-10-16T22:37:58+00:00	65.7%	32.5%	90.6%	48.6%	71.4%
2026-10-16T23:23:20+00:00	65.7%	32.5%	90.6%	48.6%	71.4%
2026-10-17T00:08:47+00:00	65.7%	32.5%	90.6%	48.6%	71.4%
2026-10-17T00:54:55+00:00	65.7%	32.5%	90.6%	48.6%	71.4%
2026-10-17T01:40:04+00:00	69.3%	32.5%	90.6%	48.6%	71.4%
2026-10-17T02:25:17+00:00	69.3%	32.5%	90.6%	48.6%	71.4%
2026-10-17T03:10:27+00:00	69.3%	32.5%	90.6%	48.6%	71.4%
2026-10-17T03:55:36+00:00	69.3%	32.5%	90.6%	48.6%	71.4%
2026-10-17T15:24:28+00:00	80.2%	71.2%	78.2%	42.9%	63.6%
2026-10-17T16:10:30+00:00	80.2%	71.2%	78.2%	42.9%	63.6%
2026-10-17T16:55:37+00:00	80.2%	71.2%	67.6%	42.9%	63.6%
2026-10-17T17:40:46+00:00	80.2%	71.2%	67.6%	42.9%	63.6%
2026-10-17T18:25:54+00:00	80.2%	71.2%	67.6%	42.9%	63.6%
2026-10-17T19:11:02+00:00	80.2%	71.2%	67.6%	42.9%	63.6%
2026-10-17T19:56:09+00:00	69.2%	71.2%	67.6%	36.7%	16.8%
2026-10-17T20:41:25+00:00	69.2%	71.2%	67.6%	36.7%	16.8%
2026-10-17T21:26:36+00:00	69.2%	71.2%	67.6%	36.7%	16.8%
2026-10-17T22:11:52+00:00	69.2%	71.2%	67.6%	36.7%	16.8%
2026-10-17T22:56:59+00:00	69.2%	71.2%	55.3%	36.7%	16.8%
2026-10-17T23:42:10+00:00	69.2%	71.2%	55.3%	36.7%	16.8%
2026-10-18T00:27:21+00:00	69.2%	71.2%	55.3%	36.7%	16.8%
2026-10-18T01:12:50+00:00	69.2%	71.2%	55.3%	36.7%	16.8%
2026-10-18T01:58:11+00:00	73.6%	71.2%	55.3%	36.7%	16.8%
2026-10-18T02:43:19+00:00	73.6%	71.2%	55.3%	36.7%	16.8%
2026-10-18T03:28:27+00:00	73.6%	71.2%	55.3%	36.7%	16.8%
2026-10-20T04:04:00+00:00	78.6%	44.9%	79.9%	31.3%	31.6%
2026-10-20T04:51:19+00:00	78.6%	44.9%	79.9%	31.3%	31.6%
2026-10-20T05:36:26+00:00	78.6%	44.9%	83.3%	31.3%	31.6%
2026-10-20T06:21:38+00:00	78.6%	44.9%	83.3%	31.3%	31.6%
2026-10-20T07:06:47+00:00	78.6%	44.9%	83.3%	31.3%	31.6%
2026-10-20T07:51:52+00:00	76.2%	44.9%	83.3%	31.3%	33.6%
2026-10-20T08:37:06+00:00	76.2%	44.9%	83.3%	31.3%	33.6%
2026-10-20T09:22:19+00:00	76.2%	44.9%	83.3%	31.3%	33.6%
2026-10-20T10:07:45+00:00	76.2%	44.9%	83.3%	31.3%	33.6%
2026-10-20T10:53:05+00:00	76.2%	47.6%	82.3%	34.3%	33.6%
2026-10-20T11:39:42+00:00	76.2%	47.6%	82.3%	34.3%	33.6%
2026-10-20T12:24:51+00:00	76.2%	47.6%	82.3%	34.3%	33.6%
2026-10-20T13:10:00+00:00	76.2%	47.6%	82.3%	34.3%	33.6%
2026-10-20T13:55:08+00:00	76.2%	47.6%	82.3%	34.3%	33.5%
2026-10-20T14:46:21+00:00	76.2%	47.6%	82.3%	34.3%	33.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	82%	70.2°F	2.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	76%	70.3°F	3.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	59%	68.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	68.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	48%	67.3°F	3.3°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	34%	66.0°F	3.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	34%	66.0°F	3.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KRIC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KRIC-20261021-TMAX-GE68
Opened Oct 15 · 15:33 UTC

Original listing: Richmond high ≥ 68°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗